Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20
We are back for the seven-game slate that Monday brings us and we have some pretty strong options, even if they might be a bit limited. Of the 14 pitchers available, we might have only 4-5 to focus on in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20 so let’s get to work!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20
Pitching anyone against the Rays as a general rule isn’t the best idea, especially when the pitcher is a lefty. Robbie Ray is the exception to that rule and he just hung over 40 DK points against this same offense. It hurts them that Wander Franco is out and the bottom of this lineup offers strikeouts. Six projected starters have a K rate over 25% this season against lefties so even if Rays gives up a run or two, he can make up for it. Ray is also third in the swinging-strike rate at 15.8% and fourth in K rate overall at 33.1%. On this slate, he has the highest ceiling on paper and is a contender for the AL Cy Young (especially after Gerrit Cole got demolished Sunday). The K rate is stagnant across either handedness and his slider boasts a whiff rate over 45% on the season. Tampa is seventh against that pitch but also ranks at -3.6 for their FanGraphs rating.
If you’re willing to roll the dice, Freddy Peralta is a risk/reward choice. He looked all the way back in his past start and whiffed nine hitters but he also threw only 71 pitches. In the previous start, he hit 81 so I believe the limit is likely around 85 but on paper, it’s a great spot. We want him against a lot of righty hitters since he sports a 39.2% K rate against them compared to a (still very good) 29.9% K rate against lefties. His xFIP against righties is down to 2.83 and the wOBA is .223 while the Cards typically play 6-7 righties every night. You do need some efficiency in this spot which can be spotty with Peralta but he did just flash his upside against the Tigers.
Once you get below $9,000, things get interesting. We have both Sean Manaea and Nestor Cortes in spots that make a bunch of sense on paper. For Manaea, he’s been wildly inconsistent lately and took a step backward against the Royals in his last start. Before that, he had back-to-back games where he struck out nine hitters and went seven innings. Seattle has some poor metrics against lefty pitching, sitting 26th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, 21st in ISO, 26th in OPS, and has a 25% K rate. His sinker has a whiff rate over 25% and 107 strikeouts while Seattle is 28th against fastballs.
For Cortes, he’s now thrown 79.2 IP and racked up a K rate of 27.3% with a walk rate of 7.2%. We’ve talked before about Texas not striking out a lot against lefties since the deadline but they’re around the bottom-eight in all the offensive categories. hey also have the 10th highest ground ball rate which is good because Cortes has a fly-ball rate of 49.5%. His swinging-strike rate is 10% which is fine but it does make you take notice that his stuff is not overwhelming with a fastball sitting at around 90 MPH. His price is more than fair and we’ve seen the Yankees allow him over 90 pitches routinely now.
Now we get into the player that is likely chalk in Ranger Suarez. We’ve been preaching all year that the Orioles are more dangerous against the left side (look at Robbie Ray in his last start against Baltimore) but I’m not sure I can mount a strong fade argument at this salary. We simply don’t get a 25.4% K rate with a 3.52 xFIP very often at this price point. Suarez is now sitting at 84 IP and the ERA is 1.50, which is due to regress by the xFIP. Still, his ground ball rate is elite at 60.9% and his changeup has a whiff rate of 40.7%. Suarez is throwing that pitch about 25% of the time while Baltimore is 25th against it on the season.
Finally, we have to talk about the newest member of the show – Shane Baz. This kid has got “it” with a fastball that can touch triple-digits without much of an issue, a plus slider, and he added a changeup as well.
He logged 46 IP in AAA this season, racking up a 36% K rate, a walk rate of just 6.2%, a WHIP of 0.85, and an ERA of 1.76 backed by a 2.99 xFIP. He’s under $7,000 and on just about any day, I would say let’s give him a shot right out of the jump.
He pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays.
That’s a big issue as there are very few offenses that are as dangerous as the Jays. They are tied for the lowest K rate in baseball against righty pitching and is either first or second in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS on the season. I honestly wouldn’t go here unless you’re playing a few lineups because the Rays are likely to treat him with kid gloves. He does line up to face Miami later this week, so perhaps we just show some patience and play him in that spot.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20 Stacks
It seems pretty simple to stack up the Atlanta Braves as a late-night hammer and that’s where I’m looking. Arizona not only has one of the worst bullpens in baseball but they are pitching Humberto Mejia, a righty who has a wOBA over .440 against lefties and an xFIP over 5.00 against righties. He’s only struck out righties 15.2% of the time through his career (only 46 batters faces, to be fair) and that’s not where you want to be facing Atlanta. They feature a premier punt in Eddie Rosario, who hit for the cycle yesterday but also is hitting .357 over his past 10 games with a 1.293 OPS. That helps us afford the big-name batters like Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, and Dansby Swanson can all be mixed in. These hitters all handle the fastball and sit over a .325 wOBA and a least a .200 ISO against righties this season.
If we play Suarez at pitcher, we can potentially fit the Brewers now as well. They draw Jake Woodford who has struggled mightily against lefties with a .392 wOBA, a 1.88 HR/9, and a 5.24 FIP. The sinker/four-seam pairing makes up about 60% of his mix and they both have a wOBA over .320. Kolten Wong and Eduardo Escobar stand out while Christian Yelich and Omar Narvaez are good additions, even though Yelich isn’t what he used to be and Narvaez is pricey. The good news is all of these four are in the positives against the fastball and they all have a wOBA of at least .330 and an ISO of at least .178 except for Yelich.
- Astros against Jamie Barria
- A’s against Tyler Anderson
- D-Backs lefties against Huascar Ynoa
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
