Richard Masana MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17
We’re back in action with a full MLB slate tonight and we have some heavy hitters at the top of the pecking order tonight. The teams they face could pose some issues, but I think there’s a player likely to be chalk that I can’t really argue. Let’s talk about the top tier and figure out who else can roll with them tonight in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 to lead us to green!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 – Main Targets
Ace Tier
I’ll get this out of the way, this is a slate that we’re going to live in the Ace range and have a couple of risky punts and that is it. The mid-range tonight looks pretty terrible tonight and I am not interested really at all. We have some underpriced Aces that we should take advantage of and then take some shots with a punt arm in GPP.
It’s going to be hard to pass on Chris Sale under five digits against the Orioles. Yes, we’ve talked all year about the Orioles hitting better against lefties and that is valid. However, the K rate is still right at 23% and Sale is sitting at a 27.5% K rate and his swinging-strike rate is 14.3%, which would rank inside the top 10 if Sale qualified. It’s an elite mark and even if Sale gives up a bomb or two, he should be able to make it up with strikeouts. The other factor (and this is one we really need to start paying attention to) is Boston is fighting for their lives for the playoffs. They need their ace to be their ace in this game. Boston has to beat up on a squad like Baltimore. Even coming off Covid, I think Sale goes as long as he can. He’s only been over 90 pitches once but that should change tonight. I don’t expect perfection, but I expect the K’s to make up for it.
Walker Buehler continues to be one of the most consistent sources of 20 DK points we can play and outside of one awful start against the Giants, he’s continuing that trend. The Reds aren’t the biggest strikeout team at 23.2% and they are sixth against the fastball, but Buehler has been so good this year it’s hard to be totally concerned. The ballpark is a downgrade to be sure but Buehler still has a .262 wOBA even against lefties and his K rate is above 24% against each side of the plate. My small fear with Buehler is the xFIP is a full run higher than the ERA and Cincy is a place that can make the routine fly-balls look like a huge home run. The Reds are also sixth in ISO so there’s more risk than normal, but I think Buehler could be overlooked by the field.
This will be a high-wire act but Logan Webb has the K upside we crave and even though Atlanta is a tough team to get after, they are in San Francisco, and Atlanta still whiffs over 24% of the time and that’s in the top 12. They are also one of the better offenses in baseball but much like Boston, the Giants are still fighting for playoff position. Of the eight players Webb is slated to face, five are righties and that’s what could help Webb succeed. Righties are striking out at a 28.8% clip and only carry a 2.55 xFIP and 22.9% hard-hit rate. On top of that, the ground ball rate is over 60% against each side of the plate and his slider has been a weapon this year. It has a wOBA of just .183, a whiff rate of 46.2%, and 73 strikeouts. Atlanta ranks 10th but that’s good for a -8.4 FanGraphs rating. All of Webb’s metrics rise at home and he could be a stealthy 22+ DK points.
Zack Wheeler has found his form recently with at least 28 DK in his past two starts and a total of 17 strikeouts with just one run allowed. It’s a bit of a risk/reward spot because Wheeler is slightly worse against lefties, but strikes them out at a higher rate. The lineup should be balanced for the Mets and since the trade deadline, New York is striking out at a 23% rate. They are right about average in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS since that time and Wheeler is leaning on his fastball and slider to strike hitters out. The Mets are in the negatives against both pitches but with the options at our disposal tonight, I’m not convinced I want to spend the top dollar amount.
Honorable Mention
Both Lance McCullers and Dylan Cease are in play and Cease would be my favorite. He has a K rate over 29% against each side of the plate but will face mostly righties and has a .306 wOBA and 4.21 xFIP against that side. It’s the same deal for McCullers in that he has much worse splits against lefties at a .311 wOBA, 4.05 xFIP, and the K rate is down to 25.3%. Both the Texas and Arizona offenses aren’t good, but they do present some small issues for these pitchers.
Punt Tier
We do have one arm under $7,000 that catches my eye and it’s Cole Irvin. Is he a good pitcher? Well, not exactly. The K rate is a paltry 16.1% but the walk rate is only 5%, which helps even that out. The Angels have fallen like a rock against lefties since the deadline, sitting 27th in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, 17th in ISO, and 28th in OBP. Irvin has been better against the right side of the plate with a .309 wOBA but his xFIP is higher with a lower K rate against that side as well. This is a matchup-based play and Irvin would do well to ditch his sinker. He’s throwing it 19.9% of the time but it gets pummeled for a .396 wOBA. His other three main pitches have a wOBA under .285 so if he can survive with his sinker, the low salary could pay off. I don’t feel a big need to move away from the ace tier, however.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 Stacks
I’m looking for some format of a 4/3 stack with Red Sox and Astros tonight. Both teams are very cheap offensively, especially the Red Sox against lefty Keegan Akin and the Baltimore pitching staff. No hitter is over $5,000 and I think we set our bedrock with J.D. Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez, and Bobby Dalbec. Akin has a .361 wOBA against righties along with a 5.50 xFIP and a fly-ball rate over 45%. That’s not where you want to be against Boston and all of these hitters have a wOBA over .340 and ISO’s over .175. Akin’s fastball has a .340 wOBA and that’s his best pitch, so this is all system’s go for the Sox.
What pieces you play from Boston depends on your pitching choices and who fits in with Houston. Madison Bumgarner takes the hill and the Astros are tough against lefties and they offer a minimum-priced punt (possibly). With Michael Brantley on the IL, Jose Siri could draw a start and would be wildly helpful to make everything work. We have our usual suspects like Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Yuli Gurriel. Bumgarner throws his cutter more than any other pitch and it’s given up nine homers and a .336 wOBA. Correa and Gurriel stand out the most against that pitch while Bregman is wildly underpriced.
- White Sox against Taylor Hearn
- Rays against Casey Mize
- Brewers against Zach Davies
- Cardinals against Vince Velasquez
- Rockies against Josiah Gray
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
