Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14
There are 12 games on the slate tonight with a returning ace and then a lot of very average options. I suspect that the Ace will be very popular but where we go after that could be interesting in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14 – Main Targets
Ace Tier
Gerrit Cole is reportedly full health coming off a hamstring injury in his last start and I’m going with that and firing him up tonight. The matchup is just too amazing on paper as the Orioles are ninth in K rate against righties overall and that has stayed stagnant through the season. He’s had some bumps in the road but he’s been mostly dominant through the year and after June, his K rate is has been about 35% or higher. The xFIP has been under 2.85 in every single month outside of that June disaster and the Yankees need every win they can get. Cole has a .237 wOBA, 2.47 FIP, and a 30.5% K rate against the right side of the plate and he should face seven. In his lone April start against this offense, Cole exceeded 43 DK points and he has that upside tonight.
Frankie Montas just continues to be on a tear with another 27 DK points in his last start and something has clicked in a major way across the last three months. The ERA is no higher than 2.63 and the K rate has been over 30%. The only poor aspect of this spot is the splitter for Montas has been his go-to pitch with a .187 wOBA, a 51.8% whiff rate, and78 strikeouts. The issue is he uses that pitch much more to lefties and he’s projected to only see four of them. That’s not awful but KC only whiffs 22% as a team. If we can go the double ace route, it would be Montas and Cole for me tonight. I think the splits won’t kill Montas but I do want to see the lineup.
It’s kind of annoying DK raised the salary by $800 for literally no reason, but I wrote this yesterday and everything still stands – Nathan Eovaldi is coming off shocking Brian and the best offense in baseball for almost 29 DK points. Eovaldi held the Rays down for seven innings of eight strikeout ball and now draws the Mariners. Seattle is still striking out over 24% of the time against righties since the deadline and has stayed in the bottom 10 in the other offensive categories. Eovaldi has been worse on the road but the xFIP in that split isn’t something that gives me major concerns. He’s been better against lefties as well with a 26% K rate and a .276 wOBA, in large part because his curve and splitter both have a whiff rate over 31% and a wOBA under .230. Seattle is 17th against the curve and this spot sets up the best on paper for Eovaldi.
Honorable Mention
If you’re ever going to play Marcus Stroman, this could be the spot since he whiffs righty hitters at a 23.6% rate. I’m of the mind that Stro is a better real-life pitcher than fantasy and St. Louis only strikes out 22.2% of the time as a team.
The Rest
We’re rolling anyone else into one category and the pickings are very, very slim. Some of the pitchers can be discarded on matchup alone like Luke Weaver, Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, and Jordan Lyles. That leads me to one option I think we can get behind in Touki Toussaint, who gets the Rockies on the road.
That has been a spot to attack all year long with Colorado whiffing over 26% of the time against righties on the road. On top of that, they are no higher than 28th in average, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. The issue there is the metrics don’t exactly give us a lot to work with. His xFIP is 4.55 and the FIP is 5.47, neither of which is inspiring. The K rate is also nothing special at 21.9% with a swinging-strike rate at just 9.9%. Now, the good news is Toussaint has been better against righty hitters with a .310 wOBA, a 24.6% K rate, and a 3.56 xFIP. I don’t love the spot by any stretch so let’s see how chalky he is.
The solution to our issues could well be Eric Fedde, who just scorched the Marlins for 32 DK four starts ago. That makes some sense since the Marlins whiff at a top 10 rate and have struggled offensively all year. Fedde is sitting at a .317 wOBA against righties along with a 24.8% K rate, a 3.75 xFIP, and a 1.24 WHIP. These aren’t elite but the man is $6,900, he’s not going to be perfect. Miami is 23rd against the curve and that’s a big boost for Fedde because his curve has a .234 wOBA, 36.9% whiff rate, and a .234 wOBA. For this salary, I’m willing to take a shot.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.14 Stacks
The first stack to me is the Giants with a bullet point. Jake Arrieta has been a target all year and he gets destroyed by lefties with a .401 wOBA, 6.56 FIP, 1.96 WHIP, and just a 16.8% K rate. San Fran has lefties to spare and we’re starting with a bedrock of Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Mike Yastrzemski. The latter two smack righty sinkers, especially Crawford with a .308 ISO and .496 wOBA. Belt doesn’t hit the sinker as well but his ISO leads the squad at .324 and his wOBA is .391.
I’m willing to roll out Fedde because he can help me get access to the Yankees lineup in Baltimore against lefty Alexander Wells. He’s gotten smashed by righties with a .437 wOBA, 7.08 xFIP, and he’s walked more hitters than he’s struck out. All of his top three pitches have a wOBA over .395 and the Yanks are better off facing lefties. The nice thing is New York fits in nicely with the Giants. You can play Kyle Higashioka or Gary Sanchez at catcher, as they are only $100 apart and both have an ISO of .298. You can pick between Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton and I give the lean for Judge. A player like Gio Urshela can make an impact as well with a .174 ISO and a good matchup. We just need a punt or two to make things work.
- Phillies against Adrian Sampson
- White Sox against Packy Naughton
- Astros against Jordan Lyles
- Cubs against Kyle Gibson
- Dodgers against Luke Weaver
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