Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.11
We have a split slate just like normal on Saturday and the afternoon might be a little unconventional. The evening is a little bit more straightforward and what we normally talk about so let’s get rolling in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 to talk about it all!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.11
Afternoon
So, I was very close to taking the Brian approach and telling you guys this is a slate you should skip. Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler both take the mound, and we’re always interested. They both have strong matchups but past those two pitchers…wow, it gets bad quickly. What catches my eye though is we have an incredibly cheap (for them) offense in the Toronto Blue Jays. I get that their game is a doubleheader and we generally avoid that but no batter for the Jays is over $4,900. I’m ready to take my chances with seven guaranteed innings in Baltimore and use cheap hitters like Josh Lowe of Tampa and jam as many Jays and cheap Rays that I can get with the ace pair. It’s the only path I’d consider, or I would skip this slate entirely (which is just smart and disciplined if you don’t like a slate).
Evening
We dodged the bad start from Walker Buehler since he pitched on Sunday night baseball last time out and there’s no real reason to treat that as anything but a bump in the road. The Padres aren’t a great matchup but Buehler just went 6.2 IP with one unearned run and eight strikeouts. There is almost nothing to pick on for Buehler because the wOBA against each side of the plate is under .270, the K rate is at least 24.7%, and the WHIP is under 1.10 as well. His swinging-strike rate is 11.5% and even with a fastball-heavy approach, Buehler is one of the better options on the evening slate. The fact he’s only $9,400 likely leaves him the chalkiest as well.
This is going to be the sixth time Charlie Morton has squared off against the Marlins and frankly, it’s been a mixed bag of results for him. In three of those starts he’s scored under 16 DK but in the past two, he’s scored over 28 DK. I think folks are going to weigh the past two starts far more and I can’t really argue with that. Ground Chuck is up to a 28.6% K rate overall with a 49% ground ball rate, a major combo. The smallest concerns are Morton has been a little worse against righties with a .277 wOBA and the K rate falls to 25.9%. The good news is Miami is projected to be more lefty-heavy than normal with four of each handedness. If that holds, it’s going to be very hard to not play Morton as Miami is top-five in K rate against righty pitching. I would be surprised if Buehler/Morton is not the stone chalk tonight and I’m fine rolling with it.
There’s always some trepidation in playing Luis Castillo and he was very good in the last start after displaying a .341 wOBA and 4.58 ERA in August. The K rate has been over 25% since the start of June so there is still some upside potential. A concern would be the Cardinals are strong against the changeup at seventh but Castillo is also better against righties with a 3.10 xFIP and a .311 wOBA on the year, and that’s with a .311 BABIP. In his last three starts against the Cards, he’s scored at least 19 DK with a total of 22 strikeouts. On a slate with limited options, we’re likely spending more than normal on pitching.
Lastly, we’re looking at Luis Garcia and he can be tough to get a bead on. The K rate is 28.5% but he hasn’t exceeded six strikeouts more than twice since the start of August. That’s not exactly ideal and the story with Garcia is the same as it usually is. If he can survive his fastball being rather hittable with a .386 wOBA, the rest of his pitch mix (about 54% worth of his pitches) are outstanding. With the Angels leaning more righty-heavy, that brings the cutter/slider mix into play heavier than anything else. They both have a whiff rate over 43% and a wOBA under .225, which are both very appealing. If the field reacts how I would think, Garcia is going to be very unpopular since he’s the highest salary on the slate.
I don’t think we need to go this low but Michael Pineda is in play, in theory. I would still have some concerns about his pitch count because he only threw 44 pitches the last time out (and the win goosed his 15 DK points) but if he could hit 60 pitches at $5,400…I could see it. I just don’t think we need to take that chance with Morton sitting there at $8,000 with a clear higher ceiling.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 Stacks
We’re heading out West and to an unusual spot as I think Seattle is in a great spot tonight. First, they draw Humberto Castellanos and lefties have had his number so far through 54 batters faced. They have a .354 wOBA, 5.25 xFIP, and a fly-ball rate of 45.9%. He’s using the fastball almost 50% of the time and it’s giving up a .423 wOBA and .263 ISO. J.P Crawford, Kyle Seager, Abraham Toro, and even Jarred Kelenic has an ISO over .215 against that pitch except for Crawford. They are all also over a .300 wOBA against righties on the year and a bonus is Arizona has the highest bullpen WHIP, xFIP, the sixth-highest HR/9, and only a 19% K rate.
I’m not exactly sure why the White Sox are so cheap, but I’m not really complaining. They are slated to draw farmhand Connor Seabold, a 25-year old righty with a suspect profile. He’s sported a 4.93 xFIP and 50.5% fly-ball rate through 41.2 IP in AAA and that’s flat out going to get him beat up against this White Sox lineup. We can go right down the middle with power hitters like Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and Luis Robert who all have at least a .343 wOBA and a .199 ISO against righty pitching. The fact no player of that trio is above $4,600 makes them easy to fit with anyone else.
- Dodgers against Chris Paddack
- Twin against Brady Singer
- Reds lefties against Miles Mikolas
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
