Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10
Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 and we have some fascinating options along with one stone-cold chalk option up top. I’m not sure I understand some of the prices here so let’s get to work and find our paths to green screens!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 – Main Targets
Ace Tier
I’m not sure what Robbie Ray has to do to get priced over $11,000. He’s been borderline untouchable lately with at least 32.8 DK in the past four starts and over 20 DK in eight of the past 10. Since the calendar has flipped to July, his ERA has been under 2.00, the wOBA has been under .265, the K rate has been above 32%, and the WHIP has been under 0.95. It’s just wild to think about how far Ray has come this season and while Baltimore is better against lefties, you have to favor Ray here. He just torched this lineup for 32 DK two starts ago, and it’s hard to not just lock him in with one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
One of the reasons I’m just locking Ray in is because the majority of the Ace Tier is not all that appealing. Carlos Rodon likely won’t throw more than about 60-70 pitches, Tyler Mahle is wildly expensive and has been heavily reverse-splits this season, Joe Musgrove faces a healthy Dodger team…It’s not great. Even if we look at Jordan Montgomery, his K rate was under 20% in August across 20.2 IP. There are two in the running to possibly go with the double Ace route, but I would not use these pitchers instead of Ray.
Julio Urias gets a scary spot in perception, but the reality doesn’t exactly match. The Padres have not figured out lefties this year as they rank 25th in wRC+, 24th in wOBA, 28th (!) in ISO, 24th in OPS, 27th in slugging, and 12th in OBP. The K rate is only 22.2% but if it was not for the uniform they wear, we’d love Urias against an offense that ranked this poorly. He’s using the curve about 34% of the time and has a .187 wOBA with it along with 63 strikeouts. The Padres are fourth against the curve this year so there’s certainly some level of danger here, but he could be a stealthy late-night hammer.
Similar to Urias, Framber Valdez draws a very advantageous matchup in the Angels. Since the start of August, they are 24th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They do come up to 16th in ISO but I’m fine with that given the rest of the metrics. As we always talk about with Valdez, the K rate is mediocre at 22% but the ground ball rate is spectacular at 69.9%. The Angels are third in ground ball rate against lefties at 47.2% and Valdez has a wOBA under .290 against both sides of the plate. It should help a little bit that he whiffs lefties at a 31.8% rate and LA is projected to have three in the lineup. They also rank 25th against the curve and that has been the go-to pitch for Valdez this season with 80 strikeouts and a .179 wOBA.
Mid-Range/Punt
I’ll be honest, I’m not super interested in the mid-range tonight. Shohei Ohtani is interesting but the Houston offense doesn’t strike out a ton at just 20.2%. Now, they should have six righties projected in the lineup and that’s generally been a boom spot for Ohtani. He’s crushing righties this season with a .226 wOBA, 2.04 FIP, 0.88 WHIP, and a 34.7% K rate. I’m not going to be shocked if he puts up 20 DK, but I’m not sure we have to take the risk against a good offense.
The one pitcher that stands out to me is Ian Anderson. He’s had a tough year, only pitching 104.2 innings with various injuries. However, when he’s been on the mound he’s been mostly strong with a FIP/xFIP combo of 3.98/4.00. That’s not spectacular but it’s not terrible by any stretch, especially when the K rate is 22.2%. He’s keeping the ball out of the air with a 50.2% ground ball rate and the swinging-strike rate is perfectly acceptable as well at 11.4%. His two main pitches are the four-seam and changeup, both of which have a wOBA under .300 and the change has a 34.1% whiff rate. Miami is 21st against the change and 29th against the fastball, a big plus for Anderson. The wOBA against righties is a bit worse, but the xFIP is almost identical and the K rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rates are all in line. The largest difference is the BABIP is .297 against righties compared to .250 against lefties. The bottom line is you don’t need dominance from Anderson at this salary and Miami has been an offense to target all year.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.10 Stacks
I’m starting in a weird spot because we’re going to talk about the Rays in the second part, and I know Brain is going there too (shocker). We don’t do this often but let’s talk about the Rockies on the road. They start with a lefty in Bailey Falter, but he may not be in the start for super long since he’s been a reliever. Even still, C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers hammer lefties with wOBA’s over .400 and ISO’s over .275 against lefties. Falter is also throwing a sinker 44% of the time and Rodgers sits at a .500 ISO while Cron is sitting at .414. Garrett Hampson doesn’t hit the lefty sinker well but has a .363 wOBA and 16 stolen bases on the year. He’s a super cheap add and the Philly bullpen is fourth in HR/9 on the season.
Alright, the main event is once again the Rays and how could they not be? Wander Franco, Mike Zunino, Manuel Margot, Nelson Cruz, and Yandy Diaz are sitting at least at a .315 wOBA and the top two just destroy lefties in a major way. Boyd has a 4.79 xFIP and the K rate is only 19.9%. The xFIP climbs over 5.00 against righties and the fly-ball rate is almost 45%. The Detroit bullpen is 12th in HR/9, seventh in ERA, and sixth in xFIP.
- Twins against Daniel Lynch
- Blue Jays against Chris Ellis
- Reds against Jon Lester
- Brewers against Eli Morgan
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