Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7
We’ve got 12 games on tap for tonight and the slate is pretty interesting. Most of the high-end ace pitchers are in terrible spots, but most of the mid-range plays are not super appealing either. It could be a tough road to walk down for the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some gems to lead us to green!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 – Main Targets
Ace Tier
We have four players in that tier based on salary but there are really only two options in my eyes. I frankly won’t have exposure to Aaron Nola or Logan Webb. Nola is wildly unpredictable and he’s on the road, which has led to some terrible results this year. Webb has been outstanding but I’m not willing to pay $9,500 in Coors. The strikeout upside is capped too much for my liking.
This may sound nonsensical, but I’m still somewhat interested in Gerrit Cole. In his last start, he was under $10,000 and very chalky and DK noticed and jacked up the price to nearly $12,000. Toronto is a nasty matchup with a 17.7% K rate since August first, which is the best mark in the league. They also are top 10 across the board in our offensive categories and you know what? That doesn’t mean Cole can’t walk out there and shove for seven innings while being very unpopular. Since the start of August, Cole has sported an ERA under 1.00, a wOBA under .220, a K rate over 35%, and a FIP/xFIP combo under 1.00 and 2.85. He’s scored at least 19 DK in three starts against this team and he’s an intriguing GPP option.
You’re going to have to play Blake Snell in cash and he’s been phenomenal lately. He went nuts in August with a 1.72 ERA, a .227 wOBA, a 38.8% K rate, and an xFIP under 2.95. The Angels are fifth in ISO and top 10 in other offensive categories while striking out under 22% of the time, but Snell is pitching like the ace he’s capable of being. The slider and curve both have a whiff rate over 45% and the slider sports a .231 wOBA on the season. The Angels are fourth against the slider and if we’re being honest, there are some red flags here. If Snell wasn’t in unbelievable form, I’d be fading. He’s pitching SO well though that I’m willing to ride with him at home in this spot where the Angels lose the DH.
Mid-Range
The chalk option is going to be Zac Gallen and it’s not exactly hard to see why. The field has attacked Texas a ton lately and Gallen has a 26.7% K rate on the season through 91.1 IP. It has to be pointed out that his wOBA against each side of the plate is at least .319 and righties are a mixed bag. He is projected to face five of them and while he does have a 30.1% K rate, the FIP is scary at 5.63. His WHIP against lefties is 1.48 so while the Texas lineup isn’t good, there are some paths to failure for Gallen as well. The secondary stuff has swing and miss ability since his three pitches outside his four-seam have a whiff rate over 30%. I think we have enough options we can go different routes in GPP, but cash is more than fine.
One pitcher that I think could be an interesting pivot is Wade Miley. The Cubs lead the league in K rate against lefties since August 1st at 29.7%, more than 3% more than Miami in second place. There is a risk here because Chicago is also top 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ in that same time period and they are only 14th in ground ball rate. Miley generates a 49.6% ground ball rate and only gets hit hard at a 26.1% rate. Chicago can use seven righties out of eight hitters and that’s not totally ideal with a 17.4% K rate against that side to go with an xFIP over 4.00. You’d be banking on ground balls and the Cubs lineup just not being that good, which is a chance worth taking against the Gallen chalk.
If you wanted to climb the salary ladder, Max Fried has to be in the discussion as well. He’s hit his stride since August started with a wOBA under .286, a K rate over 24%, and an xFIP under 2.80. Washington looks like a nasty matchup for a lefty pitcher and they do still have some lefty-killers, but the lineup is far different than it has been through part of this year. The curveball is his main strikeout weapon with 57 on the season, a .207 wOBA, and a 35.2% whiff rate. Washington is 25th against that pitch and they are third in ground ball rate since the deadline at 46.7%. They are down to 13th in slugging, wRC+ OPS, and 17th in ISO over that same time period. Fried has some definitive upside.
Punt Tier
There is one arm that somewhat catches my eye, even though there is some serious risk. Jackson Kowar is a 24-year old righty making his third start for the Royals and his last one was his best run. He’s the fourth-ranked prospect in the Royals system and generated a 13.5% swinging-strike rate in the least start, striking out six hitters. So far the metrics frankly don’t look great. Even against righties, the hard-hit rate is 43.5% and a .400 wOBA with a 5.07 xFIP. That is skewed heavily by his previous starts where he got smacked, so I don’t believe this is representative of his ability. Baltimore is 24th against the changeup and fastball, and those have been the two main pitches for Kowar thus far. He sported a 34% K rate in the minors this year so I think we can start seeing that upside tonight.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 Stacks
I want to thank DK for making the Dodgers so cheap because it’s go time with that lineup tonight. J.A. Happ has gotten blistered this season and LA is not the lineup to stop the bleeding. Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor, and even lefties like Corey Seager and Max Muncy are ALL over a .350 wOBA and .210 ISO against lefties. That’s just a minimum, with many of those hitters exceeding those marks. That’s not even talking about a punt like Albert Pujols if he plays and they are all over a .212 ISO against lefty fastballs, which Happ throws almost 40% of the time.
The optimal approach is the Gallen/Snell pairing with Giants hitters in Coors, and that’s more than understandable. However, that approach makes it harder to do damage at the top of a GPP so let’s talk about a different path. We can rock the Snell/Kowar pair and still spend big on hitters from the Padres lineup since they face lefty Packy Naughton. The main three that correlates well with the Dodgers are Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Wil Myers. They all sit over a .333 wOBA and a .180 ISO against lefties, and Naughton’s changeup is used 43% with a 338-foot average distance.
- Giants vs Chi Chi Gonzalez
- Yankees against Steven Matz
- Royals against Alexander Wells
- D-Backs against Spencer Howard/Jordan Lyles
- Mariners against Jake Odorizzi
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
