Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy hump day and happy September! Check out the FanDuel MLB 9/1 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We were going to have an 11 game slate tonight but the Mets game has already been called off due to weather and the Nationals game has now been cancelled as well, so we are left with 9 and it does not appear as though any of the remaining games will have weather concerns. There are a few early slates but the main slate locks at 7:05 EST as usual. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. While I will not be caught dead targeting the Red Sox bats for the rest of this season, I will certainly target the best (currently pitching/healthy) arm in baseball, Chris Sale ($10,500). Sale looks like his old self and really has since his first start back, because the Red Sox brought him back very slowly given how well they were doing to start the season. Unfortunately for Sale, he cannot score runs for the team, he can only limit the opposing team’s runs, so with the Red Sox unable to score anything at the plate, they are still going to miss the playoffs. Regardless, Sale is far and away the best option on the night and his price is not where it should be because the sites are still working to raise it up from the initial low point. Sale will be at or above $11,000 for his next start so let’s take advantage of the savings while we still can.
B. I do not expect the Sale ownership on FanDuel to get too out of control here, because this slate is absolutely loaded with aces. I will be picking out my favorite three arms instead of trying to save us some salary cap at SP2/SP3, because I am nearly positive that the lineup that wins tournaments tonight will have a pitcher $9,500 or above. For my SP2, I will be targeting Gerrit Cole ($11,200) who will be throwing against the LA Angels. Outside of Ohtani, this Angels team has been pretty brutal lately, and they have been getting shutout by opposing pitching quite a bit. Cole is starting to figure out how to pitch without the sticky stuff, and he is an easy second choice behind Sale. While I would rather take the savings that Sale provides, Cole is an easy pivot option with similar upside.
C. My SP3 draws the easiest matchup of all, as Carlos Rodon ($10,200) will be throwing against the punch-less Pittsburgh Pirates. Rodon owns a 2.88 SIERA that trails only Sale and Cole, while also posting a 35.1% strikeout rate that is actually slightly higher than both Sale and Cole. His 6.7% walk rate is a bit higher than that of the aforementioned arms, but he is the cheapest of the trio and should be able to easily limit runs. The White Sox are also insane -350 favorites or heavier in some spots, so this is a spot where we should expect Rodon to pick up the win bonus, although this is baseball so anything can happen.
The Bases
A. While my favorite team to stack on FanDuel is facing a pitcher with a small sample size, the Cleveland Indians should be able to tee off on Jackson Kowar and the Kansas City Royals bullpen. His pitching metrics will definitely improve once the sample becomes larger so I will not bother listing out how absurd they are, but needless to say this is not a very solid major league pitcher. The Indians have been pretty hot and cold at the plate throughout this season, but this is a spot where a full stack against a team that has mailed in the season should pay off handsomely. Teams like the Royals are more likely to roll out bullpen arms that they are testing out and do not have the type of skill or experience as other arms that teams who are competing for a playoff spot would turn to.
B. I will be going right back to the well with a team that won people a ton of money last night across the DFS industry, the Oakland Athletics. There is a recency bias that comes in to play in DFS when a team performed poorly the night prior, but this bias also exists when a team performed well. Many DFS players will convince themselves that because a team went off on the last slate, they are now a good team to fade because they could not possibly crush on back to back outings. Clearly that is incorrect thinking and it is something that I generally try to take advantage of. The A’s will be taking swings against Wily Peralta, who owns a SIERA that is nearly five, a 15% strikeout rate, and a walk rate approaching nine. I expect Oakland to stay hot and win DFS players more money on FanDuel Wednesday night.
C. The final team that I will be targeting in my FanDuel tournament lineups tonight is the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox draw an excellent matchup against Max Kranick, who also owns a SIERA approaching five, with an 18.9% strikeout rate and a 8.4% walk rate. Kranick has really struggled to limit runs and this White Sox team can explode with the best of them. On a slate with double digit games, I do not expect their ownership to get too out of control and I am more than fine with a full stack, mini stack, or grabbing a one-off play from this lineup to hunt for homers. These bats have power and are reasonably priced across the industry.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
