Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20
Friday means we have a ton of baseball action on the diamond tonight and we have some choices as far as pitching goes! Pitchers like Chris Sale, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, Lucas Giolito, and Lance McCullers are all on the bump tonight, which is a welcome change. Since we have a ton of options, let’s get rolling in MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 and figure out where the best paths to glory are!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 – Main Targets
The Ace Tier
This tier is fairly loaded tonight but only one pitcher is above $10,000 in Walker Buehler. However, I’m starting my lineups with Chris Sale and I expect him to be the most popular option in this tier. Sale looked every bit as good as we’ve come to know over his career in his first start in almost two years. Sale whiffed eight hitters across five innings and threw 89 pitches. His velocity was almost exactly what it was in 2019 and he generated an 18% swinging-strike rate. The ground ball rate was over 58% and the hard-hit rate was only 16.7%, all very encouraging signs for Sale. Factor in the Texas lineup that is bottom-five in every category against lefties since the deadline (and the fact the field has loved picking on the Rangers as of late), we can see a ceiling for Sale and his popularity.
While I believe Sale is the clear best play in the tier, the next player gets harder to peg. My initial lean is Robbie Ray, as he comes into this start scoring over 21 DK in three of his past four and continuing to be one of the more valuable pitchers in baseball. I said what I said because he’s been a K machine for fantasy and the Blue Jays have badly needed his stability in their rotation. Playing Sale and Ray together could be tough with $3,700 left per hitter but let’s deal with that later. The Tigers aren’t the cakewalk matchup for lefty pitching it used to be as they are first (yes, first) in wRC+ since July 1st against lefties. The K rate is down to 21.3% in that time and the ISO is fifth. Ray does carry a 30.3% K rate into the spot and Detroit is 18th against fastballs, which could save him. Ray is using the fastball about 60% of the time so there is a risk here. Still, he’s been so good all year and this isn’t the first tough matchup he’s seen.
The last player of the three that will be main targets for me is Lance McCullers. He walks into this start with a 27.7% K rate and while the walks are always a risk at 11.7%, Seattle is over a 25% K rate against righties and inside the top-five in that metric. hey also rank 29th in ground ball rate which is interesting because McCullers would rank third if he qualified at 53.8%. The hitch for McCullers is the splits really do not work for him in this spot. Lefties have a .339 wOBA, a 4.30 xFIP, and the K rate drops to 24.3% which helps his WHIP climb up to 1.60. In the one start he’s had against the Mariners, McCullers did whiff eight and cleared 20 DK points. He uses the curve so much to lefties, 383 out of 395 total thrown and that’s also a small concern since Seattle is top 12 against the pitch. My current plan is to take just one from the Ace Tier because there are some good offenses in blow-up spots tonight.
Ace Tier Honorable Mention
Do I think Walker Buehler is going to continue riding his streak of scoring at least 26 DK in seven of his last 10 starts? It’s pretty likely but I don’t think he possesses the ceiling to make it worth paying up at this highest salary on the slate. It’s tough to see him pitching better against the Mets than he just did with 10 strikeouts across seven innings which caps him around 30 DK. Sale has the same ceiling, as does Ray and Lucas Giolito. Now, I’m not playing Giolito against the Rays even though he is the lowest-priced of the Ace Tier. Giolito does at least have lefties on lock this year with a .278 wOBA but it’s interesting because the xFIP is almost identical to each side of the plate. Tampa is seventh and 13th against the fastball and change, the main pitches for Giolito.
The Mid-Range
This spot is fascinating for Sonny Gray, both from the matchup perspective and what the field will do with him. On the surface, a righty with a K rate of 28.5% and a 3.79 FIP going against the Marlins at $8,400 should be chalky. They are over 25% in K rate against righties and are 19th or lower in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS this year. The issues come from Gray pounding sinkers against righty hitters, 354 out of 469 times this year. His next highest pitch is the slider at 212 and that pitch does have a whiff rate over 40% but the sinker is allowing a .340 wOBA and seven of his 12 home runs. The Marlins are 29th against the fastball but Gray has a .367 wOBA, a 4.05 xFIP, and a 1.67 WHIP against righties. Miami is projected to have six righties in their lineup and if Gray is overwhelming chalk, I think it’s time to get away in GPP.
Here’s the portion where I’m going to hate myself, but we have to talk about Blake Snell since he’s at home. It’s impossible not to mention his home/road splits this year, even if that isn’t my favorite metric ever. In San Diego, he’s been the ace the Padres thought they were getting with a 2.40 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 34.2% K rate, and a 1.13 WHIP. Even though the Phillies can load up with righty hitters, he’s half them to a .288 wOBA at home with a 30% K rate. Philly is not the easiest spot on paper since they are inside the top 12 in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They do at least strike out 25.1% of the time (although as a team, they’ve been much tougher against lefties since July 1). I have a feeling the field will love Snell again which would leave him off my GPP list. For once, I actually understand why the love could be there.
The Mid-Range Honorable Mention
Elieser Hernandez starts again for the Marlins and I think the slate is a little too big to try and play him, but he has very tangible upside. The K rate is 26.5% and the swinging-strike rate is 13.6%, while his slider has generated a .113 wOBA and a 35.1% whiff rate. The issue is his four-seam is over a .400 wOBA and the Reds punish that pitch, fourth-ranked in the majors. Over his career, he’s also surrendered a .350 wOBA against lefties to go with a 5.49 xFIP. I won’t be surprised if he has a good start, but I do like other options a good bit better.
The Punt Tier
He’s coming back from the 60-day IL, which can be worrisome but Miles Mikolas is at a solid price point and he pitched seven innings in the last rehab start. There’s no concern about the workload and Mikolas is a ground ball pitcher when he’s rolling, with rates over 44% against each side of the plate in his career. Pittsburgh is eighth in ground ball rate this season (fourth since the deadline). Since they traded Adam Frazier, their numbers after the deadline are notable and they are bottom-four in all of our offensive categories. They’re whiffing over 25% of the time and hitting .199. I mean, Mitch White just dropped a 30-burger on this offense. I’ll take my chances.
Lastly, Austin Gomber makes the cut with Arizona becoming much more of a mixed bag against lefties this season. They used to be a stealthy smash offense but now sit 11th in ground ball rate, 16th in slugging, 20th in ISO, and 16th in wRC+. Gomber has a seriously wide range of outcomes tonight and it also continues to be confusing how he’s dominating in Coors but dreadful on the road. I suppose the xFIP is the same regardless of venue but he’s produced a 23.3% K rate and an ERA under 2.00 in Colorado this season. He shouldn’t be under $6,000 and I do have an interest.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 Stacks
Do you guys remember how in the past few days we’ve been torturing the Orioles pitching staff and the Rays scored like 80 runs in those games? Tonight isn’t the night to stop that trend with the Atlanta Braves riding into town, gaining a DH spot for the weekend. Lefty Keegan Akin is the sacrificial lamb, uh, I mean starter in this spot. He sports a .391 wOBA against righties to go with a 1.80 WHIP and a fly-ball rate over 40%. Every pitch in his mix gives up at least a .366 wOBA.
I’m starting a new paragraph to stress this point.
Start this stack with Freddie Freeman.
First off, I don’t care it’s a lefty on lefty matchup. If you’re not expecting Akin to last long, it’s not that important. Secondly, Freeman is at a .355 wOBA against lefties and is one of the top 20 fastball hitters in all of baseball. He’s averaging almost 12 DK points over his last 10 games (skewed a bit by a cycle game, but still) and Akin is over a .400 wOBA against lefties. Freeman being the fourth-most expensive Brave hitter is theft.
My goal here is to squeeze in Freeman and then one of Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley. I’m leaning a bit toward Riley as he’s also in the top 25 in baseball against the fastball this year and has a .315 wOBA. Albies has him beat in wOBA at .405 and ISO at .286, but Riley is far superior against righty pitching. Again, if you think Akin gets smacked, play the stack in that fashion. We can also utilize Guillermo Heredia since he’s fifth on the team against fastballs and has a .354 wOBA against lefties with a .197 ISO. Salary is getting tight but we may be able to squeeze in Jorge Soler as well, who has smashed lefties with a .296 ISO while on the Braves.
If you ride with Sale and a Punt Tier pitcher, you can actually afford some Coors exposure and the may well be my plan for the evening. Tyler Gilbert is coming off throwing a no-hitter and congratulations to him. It’s an incredible accomplishment and he’s one of just four players to do it in his first career start. It’s a great story but now he has to walk into Coors and I’m targeting Connor Joe and Brendan Rodgers. Both players are under a 19% K rate against lefties with a wOBA of at least .397 and an ISO of .279. Gilbert had a 4.44 xFIP against righties and a massive 58.3% fly-ball rate. That is terrifying and my goal is to get Braves and Rockies in there this evening.
- Blue Jays against Tyler Alexander
- Yankees against Charlie Barnes
- Angels against Sam Hentges
- Padres against Matt Moore
- Dodgers against Carlos Carrasco
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
