Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17
We are back for a jam-packed Tuesday night slate and a big thank you to Brian for covering me yesterday! It’s great to have one of the best minds in DFS back from the wilderness (the man hit like 7,245 home runs calls last night) and we have another fun slate tonight. For once, the MLB DFS Starting Rotation actually looks like it might have a bunch of options so let’s go to work and lay our foundation for green!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17 – Main Targets
Note – With NFL around the corner and starting to demand attention, we’re going to tweak the format in the article a bit. I want to promise that the amount of work being done is the exact same and will not change even when NFL officially starts. The new format will just allow me to streamline things just a little to get ideas on paper. Let’s continue to find great pitching options!
The Ace Tier
I’m generally going to be reserving this tier for any pitcher over $9,000 on DK moving forward and there are seven pitchers in that range tonight. In my eyes, there will be two main targets and then one honorable mention, and the two that I really like are Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez.
Let’s get the obvious out there and say that the odds of Burnes replicating his massive 49 DK from the last start are virtually nil. Having said that, his salary actually went down which is fairly egregious. The matchup is still string but the Cardinals whiff just 22% of the time as opposed to the nearly 30% the Cubs have been sporting lately. St. Louis is also in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against righty pitching. They do rank 12th against the cutter which is a small concern but at the same time, only four pitches have a higher FanGraphs rating than a Burnes cutter (Brandon Woodruff, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler with fastballs, and Charlie Morton curveballs). Perhaps the best aspect is Burnes has been death against righty hitting with a .217 wOBA, 2.01 xFIP, 39.3% K rate, and a 24% hard-hit rate. The Cards project for six righties and the pitcher spot, perfect for another strong showing from Burnes.
I do very much prefer Burnes in part because Valdez does only have a 22.3% K rate and the Royals are not a heavy strikeout offense at just 20.8%, second-lowest in baseball. However, they are also third in ground ball rate at 46.3% on the year while Valdez has generated a massive 69.4% ground ball rate himself. He may not have the highest strikeout upside on the slate, but he could make up for that by going seven innings deep and not allowing very much production. He uses his curveball about 30% of the time, especially to righty hitters, and the Royals project to have seven in the lineup. That pitch has a 43.3% whiff rate with just a .182 wOBA given up. The only real issue here is the K rate drops a bit against righties and on paper, Burnes has the clearer path to a ceiling game.
Ace Tier Honorable Mention
Chris Bassitt – The matchup isn’t going to be the easiest as the White Sox get healthy but Bassitt might be one of the most underappreciated pitchers of the season. The White Sox are still second in ground ball rate against righty pitching this season which is a big plus for Bassitt. He sports a 50.7% ground ball rate and a 24.2% hard-hit rate against righty hitters, which the Sox project to have six of. If he’s very unpopular, the 25.3% K rate could survive this lineup.
The Mid-Range Tier
Normally, this range will be in the $8,900-$7,500 range, give or take. I really like some of the pitchers in this portion of the salary grid tonight, starting with Alek Manoah. He sports a 29.3% K rate on the season and all of his main three pitches have a wOBA under .260 and whiff rates of at least 26%. He’s another pitcher coming off a ceiling game of 32 DK and seeing his price dip to a very affordable point. You can make the case that Washington rolling out a lineup with a projected four lefties is a concern. Manoah has seen some sharp splits in the early stages of his career and lefties have got him for a .317 wOBA. However, two points have me a little less worried. First, the BABIP is .308 and the xFIP is .344. Second, the lefties in the Nationals lineup (outside of the awesome Juan Soto) all sit under a .320 wOBA. Manoah is also whiffing that side over 32% so it’s a good mix for him tonight.
Tanner Houck is the next man up and the Yankee lineup can be had against righty pitching. He’s been phenomenal through 30.2 IP with a 1.84/2.21 FIP/xFIP combo to go along with his 2.93 ERA. The K rate is approaching 35% and the walk rate is under 6% with a fly-ball rate of just 28.8%. His slider has generated a 39.2% whiff rate and a 13.4% swinging-strike rate overall. Both sides of the plate are under a .290 wOBA and he’s actually been even nastier against the right side with a K rate of 39.7%, a 1.37 FIP, and a 2.00 xFIP. Since he gets the second game of a doubleheader, he’ll face a tired lineup and could even catch them sitting a player or two.
Logan Webb has some interest but I think we need to understand the difference in the matchup between his last start and tonight. The Mets are a tougher cookie than the Rockies on the road the most worrisome part is Webb is worse against lefties. They have a .300 wOBA but they also only have a 2.97 xFIP and Webb has a 29.2% K rate at home. The Mets are seventh in ground ball rate against righty pitching and Webb has generated a 60.2% ground ball rate. My largest fear with Webb in this spot is his slider is his best pitch with 43 strikeouts, a .193 wOBA, and a 46% whiff rate. The issues stem from out of 354 sliders this year, only 106 have been throw to lefty hitters.
We get Huascar Ynoa back tonight as he’s finished with his rehab and he threw over 80 pitches in the last start, erasing any real fears about a pitch count. Miami is just 16th against the slider but firmly in the negative ratings at -13.4 while that is the primary pitch for Ynoa. In his 44.2 IP, he racked up a 3.18 xFIP and 3.02 ERA with a 27.9% K rate. That’s immense for this salary and he has a 46.6% ground ball rate on top of that. The 13.3% swinging-strike rate and 31.6% CSW is pretty elite as well, salary considered. The slider was incredible at the start of the season with a .234 wOBA and a 42.8% whiff rate. If it maintained the FanGraphs rating it earned this year across 120 innings, it would rank as the best slider in baseball. Maybe that’s not fair to just extrapolate the number, but it tells you how nasty that pitch was. Here’s a huge caveat – he was way worse against righties with a .340 wOBA but the xFIP is also 3.43. Miami is whiffing at a 25.1% rate and I do like Ynoa, but if he’s chalky I think he could wind up being a very smart fade.
Mid-Range Honorable Mention
German Marquez – I’m really not going to go here against the Padres but Marquez has been very good even in Coors. He has a 3.05 ERA, .258 wOBA, 3.49 xFIP, and a 24.4% K rate. Maybe the most impressive aspect is the 0.44 HR/9 but the Padres have the third-lowest K rate against righty pitching. I may just not be heavy on Padres hitters as opposed to playing Marquez himself.
The Punt Tier
When we’re in this range, there will always be some major risk and that’s just going to come with the territory. You can build some crazy offensive lineups with Taylor Hearn as an SP2 on DK since he’s only $4,700. Through 60.2 IP, Hearn has put some solid metrics on paper with a 24.2% K rate and 4.01 ERA/4.66 xFIP. The righties in the Seattle lineup are a concern as Hearn has given up a .350 wOBA and a 5.08 xFIP against them. However, Seattle could have four lefties in the lineup and that’s been where Hearn has been very good with a 29.3% K rate and just a 3.52 FIP. Against lefty pitching, Seattle is 25th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, OBP, OPS, and they strike out 26.2% of the time. Hearn also uses the fastball about 54% of the time and the Mariners rank 28th against that pitch.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17 Stacks
I’m surprised to see how affordable the Dodgers are tonight against Wil Crowe and the Pirates bullpen. Crowe is getting hit hard from each side of the plate and righties have a .410 wOBA against him with a 6.55 FIP. Let’s start on that side with Trea and Justin Turner, both of who hit righty fastballs to the tune of an ISO over .205 and a wOBA over .375. They both have a wOBA over .350 against righties overall this season and I want one of them, likely siding with Trea ahead of Justin.
The main reason I only want one of those hitters is that I want lefty Max Muncy who destroys righty fastballs with a .443 ISO, .476 wOBA, 55% hard-hit rate, and a 317-foot average distance. He also carries a 16.2% walk rate, a .283 ISO, and .397 wOBA against righties in general. I will also happily take the discounted Cody Bellinger, who looks like he’s waking up from a terrible season so far. He’s averaging 10 DK points across his last 10 games and starting to show some life. We can maybe even squeeze in Corey Seager if we get the right cheap stack since the Dodgers are so underpriced in general. I want to see their lineup but I’ll be interested in just about any Dodger this evening.
- Astros against Daniel Lynch (cheaper righty hitters)
- Rays against John Means (cheaper righty hitters)
- Tigers against Dylan Bundy
- Twins against Eli Morgan
- Blue Jays against Erick Fedde
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
