Starting Rotation 8.1

Starting Rotation 8.1

It’s Sunday and we have 10 games in front of us and the pitching side of things remains mysterious in this part of the season. We had all sorts of oddball performances once again, including Yu Darvish striking out eight but giving up home runs left and right (by his standards). This slate doesn’t have the traditional “ace” so it will be another challenge to figure out in the Starting Rotation 8.1!

Starting Rotation 8.1 Main Targets 

Sandy Alcantara 

If this was before the Trade Deadline (and he was a little cheaper), I would love this spot for Alcantara. Seeing as how the Yankees should have at least two lefties in the lineup with newcomers Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo, the spot turns a bit more dangerous. Still, the Yanks are in Miami so they lose the DH option and Alcantara follows the path of other Miami pitchers who are better at home. The wOBA is .255 in Miami compared to .312 on the road and the IP are almost dead even. The K rate is not spectacular overall under 21% but the Yanks are still going to strike out a bunch. Alcantara is also better against righty hitters with a .232 wOBA at home and just a 3.00 xFIP. What I really love is the changeup has been the best strikeout weapon for Alcantara with 42 on the year and a 29.4% whiff rate. New York sits 28th against that pitch his year and over a 25% K rate as a team. 

Jose Berrios 

I’m very rarely on Berrios and you never know what the outcome will be in this scenario. The Jays badly needed starting pitching and paid a premium to get it. Berrios is a very capable pitcher but we know he can be inconsistent. The Royals are 19th against the curveball and that is the primary pitch for Berrios, generating 60 strikeouts and a 35.5% whiff rate. Kansas City is only striking out at 22% of the time against righties but they also sit under 20th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Here is where the rubber is going to meet the road – the five lefties in this lineup. 

In the year, Berrios has a pretty poor .350 wOBA against lefties to go with a 4.50 FIP. Berrios is slated to face five lefties but they are not very good, to be frank. No lefty in the Royals lineup has a wOBA over .316 nor an ISO over .170 for Carlos Santana. The strikeout upside isn’t spectacular on paper, but with the pricing of other pitchers above him, I like Berrios more than normal today. 

Jordan Montgomery 

He was a little bit wild in the last start but managed to not give up any earned runs and scored 20 DK. He did pick up the win which was a nice bump but even still, Montgomery has flashed higher ceiling and this spot is an excellent one on paper. Miami leads the league in K rate to lefty pitching at 27.9% and is 28th in every single one of our offensive categories. That was with Adam Duvall and Starling Marte being Marlins before the deadline (Marte battled injury but still) and Montgomery gets the benefit of no DH just like Alcantara. We do have to mention the Marlins sitting fifth against the curve but they are 23rd against the changeup. With Duvall and Garrett Cooper out of the lineup, the curveball rating plummets to just 18th. He’s still generating a 13.3% swinging-strike rate and may well be the best value on the board. 

My plan as of now is to keep the options fairly limited. We only have 10 games. I looked at Adam Wainwright but the Twins are in the top 12 in ISO, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against righties the past 30 days with a K rate under 22%. That’s a tough sell in my eyes. 

Starting Rotation 8.1 Honorable Mention 

Charlie Morton – I more or less refuse to pay this price for Morton. It just doesn’t make much sense to me and even though Morton is a very good pitcher, he’s not going to pay this price tag off very often. His K rate has been stagnant around 28% basically the entire season and the xFIP has stayed around the season-long mark of 3.53. I can’t justify the salary since Morton is worse against lefty hitters and the Brewers are projected to have five. That side of the plate has a .298 wOBA and the slim chance to succeed for Morton is the 31.3% K rate. 

Marcus Stroman – We preach that game logs aren’t everything, but taking a look at Stroman’s is fascinating. Since the 17th of June, he’s had exactly one start with more than 12 DK points through seven starts. The amazing one was 34.2 DK and came against this Reds offense. Outside of June, Stroman has not sported a K rate over 20.8% and that’s my biggest gripe at this price. When he was $8,000, you didn’t need 7-8 whiffs or more. Now, you need him to go very deep into the game without giving up runs or find a strikeout rate he hasn’t shown much this season. 

Starting Rotation 8.1 Primary Stack 

I’m heading to Detroit since the Tigers are throwing out lefty Tyler Alexander, who has a FIP/xFIP combo over 5.00 to righty hitters. He throws a mix of pitches but all of them have at least a .200 ISO and a wOBA over .300 except for the sinker, about 20% to righties. My primary targets are going to be Pedro Severino, Austin Hays, and Cedric Mullins. While Mullins is a lefty, he has a wOBA over .380 against lefties and an ISO over .260 against lefty cutters, a pitch Alexander uses almost a third of the time to lefties. Severino and Hays are dirt cheap and sit over a .180 ISO on the season against lefties. 

I didn’t mention Trey Mancini or Ryan Mountcastle by design because one of my favorite two-man stacks on the slate is Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Cubs righty Adbert Alzolay gets utterly crushed by lefties with a .422 wOBA, 5.00 xFIP, 8.67 FIP, and a K rate under 20%. Bell has an ISO of .193 and Soto has racked up a .419 wOBA and .978 OPS against righties this season. Bombs away against Alzolay’s 4.22 HR/9 to lefties. 

Starting Rotation 8.1 Secondary Stacks 

• Mariners lefties against Mike Foltynewicz
• Phillies against Mitch Keller
• Pirates against Kyle Gibson 
• Mets against Vladimir Gutierrez 
• Braves against Brian Anderson 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 8.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!