Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Wednesday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 7/30 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have the largest slate possible for tonight as all 30 teams will be in action across 15 games in the MLB. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. With the massive slate we have no shortage of pitching options, and those options are headlined by Corbin Burnes ($11,200). Every single aspect of Burnes game is elite, and he owns a 2.43 SIERA, 36.6% strikeout rate, and a 4.5% walk rate. Not to mention, he limits hard contact and induces groundballs at a high rate as well. The matchup does not matter at all with a pitcher like this, so we should not be scared off by the Atlanta Braves offense, especially when it is missing its allstar leadoff bat.
B. With so many options comes some solid value plays as well, so I will look to save some salary with my final two pitching plays of the evening on FanDuel. My SP2 for Friday night is Touki Toussaint ($8,500), who will be throwing opposite Burnes against the Milwaukee Brewers. While this line will not favor Touki due to the strength of the arm that he is facing, this guy still has some serious upside. His 2.88 SIERA is good for second best on the entire slate, just a bit behind my SP1 Burnes. Toussaint has also shown strikeout upside with a 29.4% K rate and only a 3.9% walk rate. While he is not a household name quite yet, I expect that to change soon.
C. To close things out on the pitching side of the ball, my SP3 on FanDuel tonight is another arm priced in the mid-tier, Logan Gilbert ($8,800). Gilbert will be throwing against the strikeout-prone Texas Rangers lineup, where he should be able to put his 28.8% strikeout rate to very good use. He also owns a solid 3.45 SIERA and only a 5.6% walk rate. This is the best matchup of my three pitchers this evening, but he does own the lowest strikeout rate, albeit only a tick lower than Toussaint. While I will likely take the $300 salary savings that TT provides, if his ownership gets to high levels we can always pivot to Gilbert.
The Bases
A. The first team that I will look to stack on FanDuel tonight is a spot where I almost do not even care about the ownership, because it is just too juicy of a situation. The Chicago Cubs will be in a revenge narrative matchup against their former pitcher Jon Lester. Lester has really fallen off a cliff since leaving the Cubs, and he has struggled to a 5.28 SIERA which is the highest on the entire night. A 14.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate are a good way to earn yourself that SIERA, and as long as the Cubs do not trade away all of their star bats before the game, I think they will absolutely tee off on Lester here.
B. Another team that is not much of a buyer at this trade deadline but that has been heating up quite a bit recently is the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will be taking swings against Wade LeBlanc and the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen. LeBlanc has also had a rough season, posting a 5.01 SIERA, 14.7% strikeout rate, and a 6.7% walk rate. While the walks have not been a huge concern, the strikeouts have not been there, nor has the run limitation or groundball production. The Twins did ship out their strongest bat in Nelson Cruz, but there are still some strong hitters up and down this lineup for us to target.
C. To close things out I will be going back to the well on another team that I have been playing an absolute ton of in my stacks these days, the Detroit Tigers. This team has been tearing the cover off the ball lately and recently paired up with my second favorite stack to produce an insane 31 runs in one game. The Tigers matchup against Matt Harvey who we all know by now is a total gas can. Harvey is similar to Lester in that they both used to be serviceable pitchers at the major league level but have totally fallen off a cliff this season. I will continue to target Harvey with my bats, especially when he is facing off against a team as hot as Detroit.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
