Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.29
Thursday is sort of a ho-hum day on the diamond as there could be just 10 games total, split into (possibly five) six and five-game slates. The pitching options on both don’t look all that great unless the Washington game plays, in which case I’d assume Zack Wheeler pitches for Philly. That remains to be seen so we’ll be skipping that game in the Starting Rotation 7.29 and talking about other options to lay our foundation for green!
Starting Rotation 7.29 – Early
Note – There’s no telling at this juncture if the Nationals/Phillies game will actually play. If it does, I would be pretty surprised to see Max Scherzer pitch. He’s been in trade rumors very heavily these past couple of days and it just makes sense for the Nationals to not have him throw before the deadline (if he hasn’t already been traded). IF he starts, he’s the typical great play and there could be a great pitching duel between him and Wheeler. Let’s talk about other games.
Gerrit Cole – I grant you the last time Cole met up with Tampa, he got knocked around but the strikeouts have come back for him lately. The K rate in July is back up to 37.8% so either Cole figured something out without sticky stuff or he’s just hiding it extremely well. Either way, this is a spot that he can take advantage of an inflated K rate since Tampa is sitting fifth at 25.5%. There’s the risk here since Tampa is also 11th in OPS and sixth in ISO against righties.
Cole’s slider has been doing well these past three starts with a FanGraphs rating of at least 0.6 in each outing. The fastball was -1.3 in the last game but ahead of that, it’s been good as well. We also like the swinging-strike rate has averaged about 14% in the past three starts, right about his mark for the season. It will be interesting to see how popular Cole is and he’s definitely in play. If he’s mega chalk, we can make the case to fade as well especially if we get that Washington game.
Carlos Rodon – He just keeps on chugging and he’s been so good this season that I’m inclined to just give him a pass when he has a poor start like last time out. Now, what has to be noted is the Royals offense has really picked up the pace against lefty pitching lately. Since the start of June, they are whiffing only 21.7% of the time and rank third in ISO. That’s not to mention top-six in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and slugging. This is quietly kind of a tough spot. Even with that noted, Rodon has a wOBA of about .240 to each side of the plate and the K rate is not lower than 33.3% to either side as well. Rodon also features a whiff rate over 31% on his four-seam and slider which make up 85% of his pitch mix. With him being $1,000 less than Cole, he could be an intriguing pivot but the spot isn’t spectacular. He’s had one great start against the Royals and one poor one, the poor one coming in a second consecutive start.
Luis Castillo – He is finally appropriately priced but that doesn’t mean I’m not interested. There’s a reasonable chance the Cubs lineup could be very poor since trade winds are surrounding them as well. Regardless of lineup construction, Castillo has been dominating for nearly two months now. Since the start of June, he’s started 10 games and given up a total of 12 earned runs, and racked up 65 strikeouts. The wOBA has been under .250 and the ERA has never crossed the 1.71 mark. The swinging-strike rate has not been under 11.5% in any of the last 10 starts and Chicago leads the league in K rate at 26.5% against righty pitching. Castillo is my favorite play on this slate and it’s more of a matter of finding the partner than anything else.
Starting Rotation 7.29 Early Honorable Mention
Luis Patino – On the surface, this looks questionable. However, Patino does have some pedigree and his splits should help him in this game. He has held righty hitters to a .262 wOBA, a 3.68 xFIP, 28.9% K rate, and just a 0.83 WHIP. The issues have come against lefties but the Yankees have been in short supply for the most part. Maybe Joey Gallo debuts but it’s still going to be a righty-heavy lineup. Patino uses the slider to righties much more than lefties and the pitch has been great for him so far. It has only given up a .217 wOBA and it has a 44.7% whiff rate.
Starting Rotation 7.29 Early Primary Stack
Let’s go to San Francisco and look at an offense that has killed lefties so far this year in the Giants. I can’t say Price has been awful against righties so far at just a .317 wOBA but the Giants are fairly cheap and sport plenty of lefty killers. Buster Posey, Darin Ruf, and Alex Dickerson are all over a .440 wOBA and .200 ISO. The sinker has been an issue for Price with a .314 ISO given up and Run has a .500 ISO, making him an elite play at the salary. Austin Slater is also super cheap for a .216 ISO and a .346 wOBA. They allow plenty of flexibility to pitch who you like and have a nice secondary stack as well.
Starting Rotation 7.29 Early Secondary Stacks
- Mets against Drew Smyly
- Reds against Alec Mills
- White Sox against Carlos Hernandez
Starting Rotation 7.29 – Main
Frankie Montas – With the news that Jared Walsh is on the IL, the Angels are now missing Mike Trout, Walsh, and Anthony Rendon. That’s a serious third of the lineup to be without and Montas (in theory) has an easier road than normal here. Now, he’s been frustrating to get right but Montas did nab the Angels for 28 DK in June. The results have been sketchy but the metrics look far more stable after the first month of the season for Montas. His xFIP has not been over 4.01 in any month and the K rate has been at least 24%.
Through the first three starts in July, his K rate is 31% and that’s come against Cleveland, Seattle, and Houston. In those starts, his splitter has been a star as it has earned at least a 0.9 FanGraphs rating each start and his swinging-strike rate has been over 14.5% in each. His xFIP has been under 3.35 in each start and while he’s scary, he does make sense on this slate. We’ll get to the highest salaried pitcher on the slate shortly.
Joe Musgrove – Let’s get this out of the way, this slate is another very poor one for arms. He started to hit the skids a little bit in June and July has been terrible through 20.1 IP. Musgrove has racked up a .344 wOBA, 5.31 ERA, and a 4.21 xFIP. The K rate has gone way south at under 24% since June hit and it has been under 18% in July. It’s difficult to not piece together the sticky stuff crackdown has been a problem for the righty.
This is all about continuing to attack the Rockies outside of Coors Field. They are dead last in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this year on the road against righties and whiff 26.1% of the time, fifth-highest in the league. It helps that Musgrove should only face three lefties and is better against righties at a .240 wOBA and 0.92 WHIP. The Rockies lineup could also be even worse if Trevor Story gets traded, so Musgrove makes plenty of sense.
Casey Mize – I’m nervous about the pitch count here but under $7,000 helps those fears go away a bit. He was back up to around 80 this past game after three straight starts sitting around 50 pitches and he faces off against Baltimore. They have been a target for righty pitchers most of the season and Mize has been far superior to the right side of the plate. They only have a .264 wOBA against Mize with a 26.1% hard-hit rate plus a 52.2% ground ball rate. It should be a strong spot for Mize since he uses the slider as a primary pitch to the right side. He’s thrown a slider 312 times to righties out of a total of 436 sliders and that has been the best pitch. It has the lowest average, wOBA, and the highest whiff rate at 30.8%. Mize should face six righties and Baltimore is 17th against the slider.
Chad Kuhl – This is not a play that has any amount of safety, but Kuhl has been seeing better results lately while the metrics are a mixed bag. Some starts the xFIP and hard-hit rate look very legit, others show he’s been dodging some bullets. Milwaukee is sixth in walk rate but also sixth in K rate to righty pitching. That’s also good and bad for Kuhl because his K rate is 19.9% and the walk rate is 12.8%. Perhaps his best asset coming into this start is the slider is his primary pitch at 45.5%. It has a .308 wOBA but also has 39 of 53 strikeouts and a 33.5% whiff rate. Milwaukee is dead last against that pitch this year and is still short hitters due to Covid. We’re only talking about 16.1 IP in July but the K rate has jumped to 28.1%. That’s worth a shot at this salary on a shorter slate.
Starting Rotation 7.29 Main Honorable Mention
Freddy Peralta – You may be wondering why Peralta isn’t a main target and the largest reason is the pitch count. Not only did the Brewers give him almost two weeks off from game action, they only allowed him to throw 51 pitches last time out. They also made it a point to say that skipping starts and shortened starts are in play during the second half. With the Brewers having playoff aspirations, they could continue electing to be cautious with Peralta. He’s already past his career-high in IP at the major league level and his career-high at any level is 120 IP and that was in 2017. Even if they let him throw 70-80, he’d have to be incredibly efficient to pay off the salary. Given the slate construction, I can see Peralta being popular and that could be a large advantage if you fade him.
Starting Rotation 7.29 Main Primary Stack
Alexander Wells takes the mound tonight for the Orioles and I’m looking at the Tigers to continue to score runs after they went full ham yesterday. Wells has a matching 42.4% hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate, which explains a 5.77 xFIP and helps explain the 5.86 FIP. Since the start of June, Detroit ranks 11th in OBP, fifth in slugging, sixth in OPS, seventh in ISO, sixth in wOBA, and fifth in wRC+ while the K rate has dropped to 23.4%. This is a much more dangerous offense than folks realize. We’re heading to the normal suspects of Eric Haase, Jonathan Schoop, Robbie Grossman, Zack Short, and Miguel Cabrera. All of these hitters are sitting at least at a .325 wOBA and the first three are over a .220 ISO as well. The four-seam for Wells is sitting around 88 MPH and has a .347 wOBA in 15 BBE. Look for the ERA to start catching up to the other metrics tonight.
Starting Rotation 7.29 Main Secondary Stacks
- Padres against Kyle Freeland
- Blue Jays against Eduardo Rodriguez
- You can go against a guy like Chad Kuhl as well with the Brewers hitters since Kuhl is so risky.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
