Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Wednesday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 7/28 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a typical Wednesday in the MLB today with some early games sprinkled in but the bulk of the action at the usual time. While Boston got hit with a PPD last night, it looks like we have another night with no PPD concerns to worry about. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. With one of the highest strikeout arms throwing earlier in the day, our best option for SP1 on the main slate is Zack Wheeler ($10,600). Wheeler will be throwing against a pretty hot Washing Nationals team, however they just lost their star shortstop to a positive COVID-19 test as he was pulled midgame last night. That hurt as I had Turner in essentially every single one of my lineups, but he will likely be back soon. Turner leaves a huge hole in the top of this order, and Wheeler will take his 3.07 SIERA and 30.4% strikeout rate into this matchup with confidence. With the lowest SIERA on the entire day and a weakened opponent, this is a no-brainer spot to target him.
B. Things get a bit tricky after SP1, despite the relatively large slate on FanDuel Wednesday night. For my SP2, I will be looking to Walker Buehler ($11,500), however that price is a steep ask given his matchup against the San Francisco Giants. I think Buehler is a safe play tonight, but I am not sure that I will end up on him in a cash game or single entry GPP format. He owns a solid 3.64 SIERA, slightly above average 26.4% strikeout rate, and a strong 5.8% walk rate. He also always has the potent Los Angeles Dodgers offense backing him up, which gives him clear win equity every time that he takes the mound. I expect the Dodgers to be listed as solid -150 or higher favorites, so this is a safe spot to go if you have the extra salary after your stacks.
C. I will look to save some salary at my SP3 position for FanDuel as this is not something that I have done across my last few articles. I will do this by targeting an offense that is notoriously weak on the road, the Colorado Rockies, who will be facing off against Andrew Heaney ($7,600) tonight. Heaney is not a pitcher that limits runs very well, as evidenced by his 5.32 ERA, however his 3.71 SIERA indicates that he has been on the receiving end of some pretty poor luck to have an ERA that high. With a 27.9% strikeout rate, we are getting a higher K rate than a pitcher that is priced nearly $4,000 more expensive on this slate. This price is extremely enticing for a pitcher that is due for some positive regression in a matchup that is willing to give that to him.
The Bases
A. Pivoting to the other side of the ball game, I will be looking to target the LA Angels early and often on FanDuel tonight, as they face off against Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Colorado Rockies bullpen. Chi Chi is an awful MLB pitcher no matter how you slice it, regardless of whether or not he is pitching at home in Coors Field or on the road. His 5.14 SIERA and 13.5% strikeout rate just do not get it done, and the Angels should tee off on him this evening. Once they do that, they get the pleasure of facing the third worst bullpen in the majors. I was watching a Rockies game the other day, and the arms that this team brings out of the bullpen are absolutely laughable. I expect Chi Chi to get pulled early, and the run train to keep rolling for the Angels throughout the middle and later innings.
B. Another team that we should look to target as much as possible on FanDuel is the Cincinnati Reds, who will be facing off against Zach Davies. Davies manages to boast a SIERA even higher than Chi Chi, as his sits at 5.61. That is one of the worst SIERA’s that you will see from a starting pitcher, and it is supported by a walk rate (11.9%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (15.5%). The Reds are an offense that has been rolling from the jump this season, and they should go off against the weak stuff from Davies tonight.
C. The final team that I will be looking to get exposure to is generally one where I mix in one-off plays, but this is more of an all or nothing spot tonight. The Baltimore Orioles draw a matchup against Jordan Holloway and although I do not think I have written this team up once all season, tonight is the night. Holloway is due for some negative regression, as his SIERA of 5.09 does not support his ERA of 3.21. This is a spot where we can let the advanced numbers give us an edge, as many will see the ERA and avoid the Orioles tonight. A 15.3% walk rate is essentially guaranteed to get a pitcher into trouble at some point, and the Orioles should be able to produce some runs with traffic on the base paths in this spot.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
