Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.28
Wednesday brings us another 11 game slate and this one includes a doubleheader in Boston, so be aware of that. There are also two ace-level pitchers at the top end and one that has been borderline impossible to get right. We’re going to talk about that and plenty more in the Starting Rotation 7.28 to lay the foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 7.28 – Main Targets
Walker Buehler
This will be the second time Buehler has faced the Giants in consecutive starts and the second start in the first pairing wasn’t all that great. Still, it’s hard to ignore him on this slate. He’s had seven straight starts with at least six strikeouts and only two have been below 22 DK in the last 10. The 26.4% K rate is backed up with an 11.3% swinging-strike rate and the projected lineup for the Giants should bring his curveball into play.
They likely roll out four lefties and Buehler has used the curveball 205 out of 277 times to lefties. It has only allowed a .208 wOBA and has the best whiff rate of any pitch at 32.8%. The Giants do rate well against the curve but they would be around 18th if we take out Brandon Belt and Darin Ruf. Belt is on the IL and Ruf is not projected, so this spot gets better for Buehler. With the Giants hovering just under a 26% K rate, the salary could be worth it tonight.
Zack Wheeler
Wheeler has been excellent this season and no pitch has a wOBA over .295. That would be the four-seam but it also has 67 strikeouts so we can live with a slightly higher wOBA. Washington is sixth against the fastball but just like San Fran, they will be without two of their best three fastball hitters tonight. Taking Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner out leave the Bats about 19th against the fastball and that’s a big boost for Wheeler. Really, past Juan Soto, this Nationals lineup does not look good at all. Wheeler is over a 30% K rate and his 2.73 ERA lines up well with the 2.29/2.73 FIP/xFIP combo. Wheeler has bumped his whiff rate on the four-seam up by about 7% and the swinging-strike rate is a career-high 12.7%. Pending what Washington’s lineup looks like, I slightly prefer Wheeler if only paying up for one spot.
Andrew Heaney
I don’t have much interest in the mid-range tonight so I’ll be skipping those pitchers. It seems like Heaney is chalk every fifth day but I have to say, this time it actually does make sense. Look, Heaney is a pain to play because he’s wildly up and down but he gets the coveted Rockie Road spot. I have to expect the field is going to flock to Heaney in a big way. We talked yesterday about how putrid the Rockies are against lefties on the road and Heaney does possess upside. It can just be hard to find. His ERA of 5.32 is out of whack with the 3.83 xFIP and has a K rate of 27.9%.
The WHIP is the highest since 2017 and the walk rate is the exact same way but in this spot, some of the concerns fade away. I do wish he wasn’t using the four-seam almost 60% of the time. Sure, it has 52 strikeouts but it also has allowed 11 home runs and a .377 wOBA. He’s slated to face six righties and they have a 31% K rate, 3.49 xFIP, and a 35.3% hard-hit rate. I want to see exactly how chalky he is before making the call here.
Jordan Holloway
I’m not sure we should penalize him for a poor start against the Padres. This spot is much different and attacking the Orioles has proven to be solid most of the time. Baltimore is 17th against the slider this season and that’s the primary pitch for Holloway at almost 42%. It’s also generated a .191 wOBA and a 31.6% whiff rate. It’s been a key pitch for him because his poorer outings have typically had a negative rating for FanGraphs. The four starts before the Padres start saw Holloway rack up K rates over 27.8% and three of them were over 31%. Baltimore also ranks 24th in walk rate and whiffs 25% of the time while ranking 27th against the fastball. That’s been an issue for Holloway as his sinker has allowed a .418 wOBA. If he can throw first-pitch strikes and survive on his fastball, this start could go extremely well.
Starting Rotation 7.28 Honorable Mention
Lucas Giolito – I will find the extra money for Wheeler or Buehler in almost any lineup I play, but we have to talk about Giolito. The Royals are 19th against the changeup and 25th against the fastball, which should help Giolito. It also has to be noted that the K rate from June on has been under 28% and he hasn’t looked terribly strong after the Break by some metrics. It’s only 15 IP in fairness, but the K rate is 19.3% and the xFIP is 5.66. It’s worth the extra money for the upper-tier tonight in my eyes.
Tylor Megill – I can’t say I love the salary and his pitch mix looks like it could bite him tonight. Of his three main pitches, the four-seam and changeup both have a wOBA over .300 but at least the change has a 37.9% whiff rate. Megill has sported a 27% K rate through his first 30 IP in the majors but the price is up there.
Starting Rotation 7.28 Primary Stack
Give me the Angels hitters tonight as the Rockies send Chi Chi Gonzalez to the mound tonight and he’s been a disaster this year. He’s shown hardly any strikeout ability and the Angels are all in play. His fastball is giving up a 43 hard-hit rate and the slider is worse at 50% while both pitches are over a .185 ISO. It’s very easy to say that Shohei Ohtani is in play despite his slump and so is Jared Walsh, if he is available. Where we can get creative is the rest of the stack. Most may be hesitant to pay for Max Stassi at $4,600 but he has a .425 wOBA and .242 ISO this year against righty pitching. Gonzalez is slightly worse against righty hitters which leads me to talk about Jack Mayfield. He can be the wraparound since he’s projected to hit ninth and sports a .333 ISO in just 27 PA. We can also utilize Brandon Marsh even though he’s not hit righties that well yet with a .253 wOBA. Gonzalez is so bad that we can mix and match to comfortably afford Ohtani, Walsh, Stassi, and Justin Upton.
Starting Rotation 7.28 Secondary Stacks
- Phillies against Patrick Corbin
- Reds against Zach Davies (lefties especially)
- White Sox against Kris Bubic
- Brewers against Max Kranick
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
