Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.27
We have all 30 teams in action tonight but I’m not sure exactly what that means as far as pitching options. We do have some strong arms but we’ll be paying for them if we go that route and paying for aces has been frustrating lately. We have the high end and plenty in between to get to so let’s get rolling in the Starting Rotation 7.27 to set our foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 7.27 – Main Targets
Lance McCullers
He’s certainly expensive, especially for a pitcher who has five starts of under 20 DK in his last 10. The good news is McCullers has plenty of ceiling with two starts of at least 35 DK and this strikes me as a spot that could feature a ceiling. McCullers has a K rate approaching 28% and generates an 11.6% swinging-strike rate. His two secondary pitchers of the curve and slider both have a whiff rate over 34% and the wOBA is under .285. The sinker has been the weak spot with a .347 wOBA and four out of six home runs allowed. Playing McCullers hopes that the Mariners being poor against the fastball (bottom-five) helps mitigate that factor.
If there’s a concern, it might lay in the splits. Lefties have a wOBA of .305 and an xFIP of 4.49, in addition to the K rate falling to 23%. Seattle should roll out five lefties tonight and what’s really interesting is they are third in fly-ball rate against righties. McCullers has a ground ball rate over 54% on the year, so that could be a determining factor for this start. I think McCullers is a strong option, but I’m not convinced he’s a must-have at this salary.
Sandy Alcantara
The righty for the Marlins has hit the skids a little bit lately with single-digit scores three of his last four starts. What’s interesting is in the last three starts, his FIP was no higher than 4.15 and two of those starts only sported a hard-hit rate under 23%. This should be where the bleeding stops with the Orioles hitting so poorly against righties this year. They remain bottom-five in the categories that we value and even though Alcantara has a K rate of just 21.3%, Baltimore should help boost that.
You can also argue that the career-high swinging-strike rate of 12% should be leading to more strikeouts. Baltimore sits 17th against the slider and 29th against the change and both pitches have a whiff rate over 29.5% this season. Alcantara does face an extra hitter in an AL park but he’s slated to face seven righties. They only have a .259 wOBA, 3.10 xFIP, and a 25.8% K rate so this spot really lines up well for him. The mid-range has some options but Alcanara might wind up being the favorite.
Dylan Cease
Cease is kind of an odd pitcher to talk about. He’s a little bit inconsistent in his results but the 29.5% K rate is quite appealing, especially at this price. Kansas City is a low K rate tam at 22.1% but they also aren’t a good offense against righties. They rank in the bottom 10 in all of our offensive categories except wRC+ where they are at 19th. Cease is primarily a two-pitch guy with the four-seam and slider, but the curve is a serious weapon when he uses it. The slider/curve combo has 78 strikeouts and both possess a whiff rate over 41%. The Royals are also 25th against the fastball, which in theory helps Cease. That offering has allowed nine of 13 home runs with a .359 wOBA.
His swinging-strike rate of 14.6% ranks eighth in all of baseball, which shocked me when I saw it. The concerns for him lie in the splits as well since he should face five righties and they have the better of the offense against him. It’s a .324 wOBA and a 4.37 xFIP but we also have to note the .342 BABIP, which is kind of nuts. This spot against the Royals could well be where it starts to come down to Earth and he’s another option that makes me hesitant to pay up tonight.
Jose Saurez
I can safely say this is the first visit to the Rotation for Suarez but that happens when you’re facing the Rockies outside of Coors. The only team saving Colorado from ranking 30th in almost every major offensive category against lefties on the road is the Pirates offense. They also strike out over 24% of the time. Now, Suarez isn’t exactly special by some metrics and the career ERA is over 6.00. He’s been slightly better than that this season through 41IP and his metrics against righties actually look fairly solid. The xFIP is barely over 4.00 but the wOBA is only .207 and the hard-hit rate is under 29%. His changeup has been the best weapon thus far with 15 strikeouts, a .150 wOBA, and a 39.2% whiff rate. Colorado is 19th against the changeup and Suarez is interesting in this spot.
Jordan Montgomery
The last time Montgomery tangled with the Rays, he racked up 24 DK points and whiffed six batters. Heck, even this past start he scored over 22 DK and saw his salary decrease by $700. That makes no sense and even with the addition of Nelson Cruz, Tampa is likely to still scuffle against lefties. They are 26th in OBP, OPS, wOBA, 23rd in ISO, and 22nd in wRC+. Cruz isn’t going to solve all of that by himself and Montgomery has a K rate over 24%. The swinging-strike rate backs that up at 13.2% and he’s using the change/curveball combo to his advantage. Both have a whiff rate over 38% and sport a wOBA under .265.
What is really nice to see is the splits for Montgomery. Tampa is still projected to have four in the lineup and if that holds, it’s perfect for him. Montgomery has a .223 wOBA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 26.8% K rate. He may not be the most consistent pitcher we have on the slate, but the salary doesn’t match the upside the least for this spot.
Starting Rotation Special
Let’s get wild. A friendly reminder that this play will not be for everyone and is inherently risky. This pitcher draws a matchup against the team that is fighting for dead last against the fastball on the year. The Special has been using that pitch over 51% of the time so far and the opposing offense also features a K rate over 25%. They are also 26th in wOBA and OPS while sitting 28th in ISO. The hard-hit rate from any start so far isn’t above 36.4% and the barrel rate is only 7%.
I will admit the fly ball rate is massive at 43.9% which could become an issue. My largest fear is the lineup he’ll face likely is righty-heavy and through just 35 faced, the K rate is only 11.4% with an xFIP over 6.00. However, that’s such a small sample that I can’t say it’s a deal-breaker. The Marlins just aren’t a good offense and Spenser Watkins could ride the four-seam to 15 DK or higher. To be clear, I would rather play Montgomery but if you play multiple lineups, Watkins is well worth a look.
Starting Rotation 7.27 Honorable Mention
Robbie Ray – I don’t think we should let a slate go by without talking about him and his 31.3% K rate, but I won’t be playing him tonight. First, his salary went up into five digits after 7.7 DK points last time out. That last start came against this same Red Sox team and with his fastball-heavy approach, I really don’t have interest at this salary facing the same offense again.
Shane McClanahan – Not my favorite price point for the fireballer but he does carry a 28.6% K rate so far. His four-seam has been the undoing so far with a wOBA over .400 and you can make a good argument that New York is just way too cheap and stack a few hitters. I’m hesitant to not at least mention McClanahan with his talent level, but I will fall on the Yanks side of the equation with Aaron Judge likely back as well. As a team, they rank top 10 in OPS, OBP, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties this season.
Kenta Maeda – We’ve been talking about him an awful lot lately and the price is at least down to palatable. His K rate is almost 25% and since he’s come back from injury, his splitter and slider combo has been playing much better. I can see him being chalk which is fine, but I’m not sure we need to eat that past the cash format on this large of a slate.
Starting Rotation 7.27 Primary Stack
Matt Moore is on the bump again for the Phillies and the Nationals offense has been excellent against lefties this season. They are a little banged up but there is still plenty we can utilize here at the top of the order and beyond. Righty hitters have a .405 wOBA and a 6.57 FIP against Moore and he’s using the fastball 53%. I’m going through the infield here with Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Ryan Zimmerman, and Alcides Escobar.
Turner and Zimmerman are both over a .375 wOBA and .275 ISO while Turner mauls the fastball for a .364 ISO, the best on the team. Harrison sits at a .222 ISO against that pitch and has a .367 wOBA and Escobar is at a .349 wOBA through 23 PA. What I really love is if you decide to go Yankees, the Nationals correlate extremely well with hitters like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Giancarlo Stanton.
Starting Rotation 7.27 Secondary Stacks
- Yankees against Shane McClanahan
- Braves against Jerad Eickhoff
- Reds against Adbert Alzolay (lefties only)
- Twins against Tyler Alexander
- Jays against Garrett Richards
- White Sox against Brad Keller
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
