Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.24
It’s Saturday and we’re going to be focused on the main slate today with only four games in the early portion of the day. We get 10 in the evening and that’s where a lot of the action is, including a game that could turn into a pitcher’s duel pretty easily. We have that and plenty more in the Starting Rotation 7.24 so we can set our foundations for green!
Starting Rotation 7.24 – Main Targets
The stars of the slate are Corbin Burnes and Carlos Rodon as they face off against one another, so let’s talk about that matchup as a whole. Starting with Burnes, he reminded us of the ceiling that he does have with over 43 DK points and 12 strikeouts. The cutter is the main weapon for Burnes with 78 strikeouts and he also offers a curve and slider as his main trio. Not only is Chicago 28th against the cutter, the curve, and slider both have a whiff rate over 48% this year. The K rate is 37.2%, the FIP is 1.31, and the xFIP is 2.07. There really is very little to not like here and if you need more, the White Sox lead the league in ground ball rate against righties. Burnes has generated a 50.7% rate and he’s a fantastic play.
Rodon also has an excellent matchup by pitch type since his slider is his start strikeout pitch with 73. It carries the highest whiff rate at 42.9% and the Brewers rank 29th against the pitch. Both the slider and the four-seam sit at a .225 wOBA or under while Rodon generates a 15.5% swinging-strike rate. The Brewers are also fifth in K rate to lefty pitching and we could see a lot of zeroes on the scoreboard with plenty of strikeouts to boot. If there’s an offense that fits reasonably, I wouldn’t mind going double ace but it would have to be a very cheap offense. If I’m only picking one, I’d go Burnes but truly think either is a very fine play.
Kevin Gausman – The Dodgers offense is nowhere to be found in this one and Gausman has been incredible past the Dodgers starts. His K rate is over 30% and the FIP is 2.82 with a 1.84 ERA. The xFIP is 3.40 which I suppose is a small concern but the Pirates offense is bottom-five in ISO against righties. Gausman is basically using only two pitches, throwing a four-seam or splitter 88% of the time. The splitter has racked up 98 strikeouts and has just a .146 wOBA with a 49.6% whiff rate. That pitch continues to sit in the top five overall in FanGraphs rating. Gausman has only given up a .185 wOBA at home this year along with a 2.85 xFIP and a 33.1% K rate. What’s going to be interesting to me is the popularity of these first three pitchers. If there’s a massive discrepancy, we should do our best to take advantage of it. I’m not sure there’s a massive difference on paper.
Logan Gilbert – He struck out a career-high nine hitters last time out and it was phenomenal to see his pitch mix. The four-seam was only at 57% while the slider and changeup were at 26% and 17%. That’s a fairly radical shift from some starts that pushed an 80% four-seam usage. Considering his whiff rate on the slider and change are 40.5% and 73.1%, Gilbert has to use them consistently. Even with some bumps, Gilbert has a 28.3% K rate and just a 5.5% walk rate. He’s also only giving up a 29.5% hard-hit rate so there are so many encouraging signs. If he continues to utilize the weapons, he looks like he’ll have the goods to hang with any offense in baseball.
Luis Castillo – It seems like the DK pricing algorithm got stuck with Castillo struggling in the early part of the season. He continues to be reborn this season after the calendar flipped to July with a wOBA under .255 since that point and an ERA under 1.85. The K rate has been over 23% and the xFIP has been under 3.90. Everything lines up for Castillo pitching the way we all thought he would and the price simply won’t move. Even throughout the uneven year, Castillo has been better against righty hitters and we love that against the Cardinals lineup. He’s not scored under 15.5 DK since the start of June.
Starting Rotation 7.24 Honorable Mention
Chris Bassitt – He likely gets lost in the shuffle with some of the names in his salary range and I do prefer the ones we talked about. Still, Bassitt draws a matchup against a Mariners offense that is fourth in K rate against righties at 25.9%. Bassitt is also pretty even to each side of the plate with a wOBA of no higher than .283. His main three pitchers are a variety of fastballs and Seattle has struggled to a bottom-four ranking.
Starting Rotation 7.24 Primary Stack
Kyle Freeland takes the mound tonight and that means we’re going to have to be interested in some Dodgers hitters. Mookie Betts is the obvious one busboy is it hard today $6,500 for any hitter. Instead, I think we can go somewhat cheaper in Chris Taylor and Justin Turner as they both have wOBA’s over .375 and ISO’s over .255. That still means we need some cheaper options and the Dodgers lineup should provide that with the duo of Albert Pujols and AJ Pollock. They are also over a .210 ISO and Freeland is giving up at least a .375 wOBA to both sides of the plate this year. The xFIP to the right side of the plate is 5.10 and that should come back to bite him today.
Starting Rotation 7.24 Secondary Stacks
- Rays against J.C. Mejia (lefties)
- Giants against Wil Crowe
- Tigers against Carlos Hernandez
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.24 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
