Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.23
We finally have a slate that has plenty of pitching options tonight and I’m super excited for it! It appears that we have at least one option at just about every price point so there should be plenty of paths to choose from. There are 14 games in the Starting Rotation 7.23 so let’s get down to business and lay our foundations for more green screens!
Starting Rotation 7.23 – Main Targets
Gerrit Cole
I voiced some concern in Cole’s last start because of the lack of swinging strikes during the previous one. Well, that went away last time as Cole generated a 39% whiff rate and he utilized the curve just a bit more than normal. There was really not much to suggest that either of the last two starts were undeserved for Cole. He left each start with a 2.95 and 1.69 xFIP to go along with a 25% and 11.8% hard-hit rate. There can be some small concern about facing the same lineup twice in a row but Cole has scored 50 and 35 DK points and his salary remains the same. For a while there, Cole was a relatively easy fade. Even with the spin rate still down a hair, he’s gone back-to-back starts with double-digit strikeouts. The rewards outweigh the risks.
Lucas Giolito
Hello, Ace version of Mr. Giolito! It came against the Astros of all teams and his price is still very affordable and the Brewers offense is less of a challenge than Houston’s (no offense, just saying). We’ve continually talked all season about how Giolito is better than some of his surface numbers appear and he’s still sporting a 29.2% K rate on the year. Part of the reason I keep coming back to him is the swinging-strike rate of 15.4% is fifth in all of baseball. That has to add up to some strikeouts and he’s giving up 3% less hard contact than last year as well.
The largest concern outside of the instability Giolito has displayed is the four-seam data. Milwaukee is top 12 against that pitch and it’s been the worst pitch for Giolito. It has a .321 wOBA and only a 23.4% whiff rate. The good news is the projected Brew Crew lineup has five lefties plus the pitcher spot in it, a luxury for Giolito. Lefties have hit him worse at a .272 wOBA, strike out more at a 31.5% rate, and have the lower FIP at 3.08. With Milwaukee sitting at the fifth-highest K rate of 25.6% against righties, I’m ready for Giolito to hurt me again.
Johnny Cueto
This is a rarity for me. There isn’t exactly something that I can hitch the wagon to with Cueto. Sure, we’ll talk about some stats but I just have this feeling that he has a very strong start here. The slider has been an issue for Cueto with a .433 wOBA and just a 13.8% whiff rate. It’s a good thing for him that the Buccos are in the bottom-five against the pitch this season, along with dead last against the fastball. It’s not a large surprise but Cueto has performed better in San Francisco with a 3.21 ERA and .308 wOBA. Those marks jump to 5.09 and a .381 wOBA on the road.
Strikeouts are king in DFS and while Cueto isn’t special, he is over 20%. Frankly, I don’t expect more than 4-5 strikeouts. With Cueto featuring a 4.6% walk rate, he makes you earn it. The Pirates are 24th in OPS, 30th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, and 24th in wRC+. I think we get 22 DK here and 3x value from the crafty veteran tonight.
David Price
With a rising pitch count and 13 DK points IN Colorado the last time out, it’s going to be hard to ignore Price here. The Dodgers need starting-caliber arms with 3/5 of their rotation on the sideline and Price should get over 80 pitches tonight. We get Rockies Road tonight and against lefties, they are 29th in ISO, OPS, slugging, average, wOBA, and wRC+. They also strike out 25% of the time. It’s hard to put a quantifier on his seasonal stats since coming out of the bullpen is vastly different than starting. Things get skewed quickly for relievers but he does have a 22% K rate (it jumps over 25% to righties) and just a 3.21 xFIP against that side. The bottom line is the price is just far too low for a potential SP2 that allows us any ace we want for under a total of $16,500.
Wily Peralta
If I had to guess on Thursday night, I think Price is popular. That likely means Peralta will be mostly ignored and since Brian is out for the weekend, I need to plant the flag here. If Price is popular, Peralta is the direct pivot but has plenty of risks. For starters, Peralta has a 4.50 xFIP compared to a 1.64 ERA. The strikeouts are not really there at just a 15.9% rate, among the lowest that has ever made this article. He does have a 57.4% ground ball rate in his 33 IP so that helps at the salary. The matchup is largely what we’re after since KC hasn’t hit righties all year. They are 21st or worse in all of our categories and he could easily match Price at a fraction of the popularity.
Starting Rotation 7.23 Honorable Mention
Freddy Peralta – I won’t land there with Giolito and Cole right around him, but we know Peralta has upside. His 35.1% K rate is the highest of any pitcher on the slate among qualified starters (including Cole). I do have questions about how long he can keep this performance up in the second half. His 98 IP is already a career-high in the majors. I think Cole only $100 more is worth the difference in ownership tonight.
Frankie Montas – I have zero trust in Montas but this spot would be one that should accentuate his strengths. The sinker and four-seam make up almost 63% of his pitches and Seattle is 27th against fastballs this season. Both pitches have a .339 wOBA or higher but his splitter is the main weapon. It has a 52.8% whiff rate and only a .173 wOBA. If Seattle can’t hit the fastball mix, they are in trouble. To top it off, Montas is better against lefties with a 29.6% K rate, 3.57 xFIP, and a .300 wOBA. He’s slated to face five of them tonight.
Starting Rotation 7.23 Primary Stacks
On a larger slate, I tend to limit myself to four hitters from an offense and possibly even three. The two offenses that have my eye tonight are the Angels and Nationals, but we’ll start with the cheaper one. We can utilize an ace/punt approach with pitching in Cole/Peralta (or Price).
The Angels face off against J.A. Happ, who has been terrible all year. Righties are hammering him with a .392 wOBA, .934 OPS, and a 5.37 xFIP. His two main pitches are the four-seam and slider and we can turn to a recently reinstated Justin Upton along with David Fletcher and Jose Iglesias. All three hitters have at least a .344 wOBA and the first two are above .400. Upton is an elite one-off even if you don’t go with a full Angels stack.
Since we have a punt pitcher and some super cheap Angel hitters, we can pay up for the Nationals hitters in Camden Yards, starting with the WHITE hot Juan Soto. Through 59 at-bats in July, he’s hitting .390 with seven bombs, a .526 wOBA, and a 1.293 OPS. Now, if you go this route it might feel a little weird because if you play Iglesias from LA, you leave out Trea Turner from the Nationals. You can interchange those two players and supplement the Washington part of this play with Josh Bell and Josh Harrison, both over a .320 wOBA on the year.
Main Components for the Stacks – Soto, Upton, Tuner/Iglesias, Fletcher, Harrison, Bell
Starting Rotation 7.23 Secondary Stacks
- Dodgers against Chi Chi Gonzalez
- Astros against Kolby Allard
- Orioles against Patrick Corbin
- Padres against Zach Thompson
- Tigers against Kris Bubic
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
