Starting Rotation 7.17

Starting Rotation 7.17

It’s another Saturday and we do have a split slate, but there are only three games in the afternoon and 10 at night. With that, we’re only going to focus on the main 10 game slat and give that our full attention. Hopefully, it’s not as hectic a slate as it was yesterday in the Starting Rotation 7.17 and it’s easier to lay our foundation for green! 

Starting Rotation 7.17 – Main Targets 

Note – Brandon Woodruff is starting tonight and my general thoughts are in yesterday’s article. I would rather use this next pitcher if spending on pitching tonight. 

Gerrit Cole 

Red Sox Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 12th SL – 5th CB – 2nd CH – 1st

Did we see Cole figure things out with a decreased spin rate or was he just happy to shove against the Astros? Well, that’s a question that will cost you $10,000 to answer and I’m a little leery. The spin rate was still down in the last start and what concerns me the most is he only got 13 swinging strikes out of 126 total pitches.

Boston isn’t striking out a ton at 23.6% but Houston is under 20% so that was a worse spot for Cole. He should face six righties tonight and that would help if the seasonal metrics held up. Cole racked up a 29.2% K rate and .231 wOBA in the first half against righties but also had a 38.3% K rate against lefties. It’s honestly kind of a confounding spot. My lean is to eat the chalk in cash if we need to, but I’m not sold in GPP. One start doesn’t fully change how average he pitched since the sticky stuff crackdown and I’m not thinking he throws 126 pitches for a CGSO again. 

Nathan Eovaldi 

Yankees Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 17th CB – 15th CT – 20th SL – 10th SF – 4th

The Yankees are hurting through the lineup, missing three regulars and others. They are still projected to be very righty-heavy and on the surface, that looks terrible for Eovaldi. He gave up a .343 wOBA but let’s look past that. The hard-hit rate was only 26.3% while the flyball rate was only 23.6%. The BABIP was an absurd .371 and even then, he had an 81.6% strand rate. New York is inside the top 10 in K rate facing righty pitching at 24.9%, another notch for Eovaldi. His curve and slider both have whiff rates over 36.8% so he does have some strikeout ability. The swinging-strike rate is 12.1% and overall, Eovaldi looks like a pretty solid bargain. 

Luis Castillo 

Brewers Ranks vs Pitch Types – CH – 17th FB – 11th SL – 30th 

I will grant you that the strikeout upside isn’t exactly there right now for Castillo, as his last 50.1 IP hasn’t produced a rate over 25%. However, $7,500 isn’t all that much that you need to get 8-10 strikeouts. Hitters haven’t produced a wOBA over .242 in that period either and the ERA has been below 2.50. Castillo has really done an excellent job of limiting hard contact at under 24.5% to each side of the plate and keeping the ball out of the air at under 28%. The sinker is really his biggest issue this season. It’s giving up a .358 average, .425 wOBA, and leads with four home runs given up. Four players in the Brewers lineup have ISO’s over .200 (Yelich, Narvaez, Peterson, Bradley Jr.) but past that the lineup doesn’t look dangerous. Castillo just remains too cheap in this spot. 

Starting Rotation Special 

I’ve said these picks are risky, and this one is certainly up there. I think his teammate not really doing anything special last night could leave him overlooked, and his recent results weren’t very good before the break. His four-seam has been a huge issue thus far. It rated as a 3.7 on FanGraphs last year compared to -6.1 this year. The .399 wOBA and 15.3% whiff rate would certainly agree with those ratings as well. His opposition is ninth against the fastball but they also strikeout over 27% against this handedness. 

This offense has scuffled on top of that and their OBP and OPS is just 27th, the ISO is 26th, the wOBA is 27th, and the wRC+ is 24th. The Special is rocking a 3.93 xFIP and only a 25.2% hard-hit rate with a 29.7% fly-ball rate. The BABIP to each side of the plate is over .315 and I think this is a spot where Max Fried starts to normalize. 

Starting Rotation 7.17 Honorable Mention 

Anthony DeSclafani – I can never get a good feel for Tony Disco. He’s got a 3.89 xFIP, 3.49 FIP, and a 2.68 ERA so something should give there. The K rate is under 24% but the WHIP is an even 1.00 to go with a career-high swinging-strike rate of 11.2%. Perhaps the best attribute for him in this start is his results against righty hitters in the first half. He racked up a .217 wOBA, 22.2% K rate, and a 0.89 WHIP. However, the xFIP is 4.21 and he had a 91.9% strand rate. I think it was a little smoke and mirrors and this spot isn’t my favorite. 

Yusei Kikuchi – If it weren’t for Eovaldi, I would have definitely had Kikuchi as a target but I’ll save the $500. Still, the Mariners lefty was mostly on a roll ahead of the break and gets an Angels squad still missing Justin Upton, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon. Keep an eye on the Angels lineup. They are projected to have four lefties. If that’s true, Kikuchi really does take a step up. He’s owned the left side with a 31% K rate, 2.48 xFIP, and a tiny .179 wOBA. 

Brady Singer – I flirted with him as the Special since the Orioles are ninth in K rate and Singer’s metrics look kinder than results. His xFIP to the right side of the plate is only 3.68 and while the K rate is only 21.6%, he’s under $7,000. The Orioles are projected for a 6-3 split with righty hitters in the lead and the hard-hit rate from that side is only 19.5%. You can do way worse at this price point. 

Starting Rotation 7.17 Primary Stack 

This looks like I’m just chasing last night, but I’ve been chasing offenses against Patrick Corbin all year. The Padres let us down in this spot last Tim right before the break but did you know Corbin generated a 7.5% swinging-strike rate, 6.03 xFIP, and a 5.83 FIP in that start? The Nationals used the bullpen for 7.2 innings last night and even with a well-rested pen, that’s not a good idea. 

Every pitch for Corbin outside of the slider is just getting crushed with a wOBA over .390 and it just so happens that both Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado have ISO’s over .300 against that pitch. Corbin is only striking out righties at a 16% clip and we can add in Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, and even Ha-seong Kim for salary saving. Past the top two hitters, this stack is very affordable, and don’t forget to make it different with a lefty like Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth. They both have a wOBA of at least .340 this season against lefties. 

Starting Rotation 7.17 Secondary Stacks 

• Dodgers
• Mets 
• Giants

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!