Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Friday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 7/16 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a huge 14 game slate on tap for Friday with quite a few potential weather concerns for us to keep an eye on. The all star break lasted a bit longer than expected with the Yankees dropping a few positive tests despite being vaccinated, but we are definitely back today thankfully. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. We start things off with a pitcher that was really heating up before the break, Robbie Ray ($9,800). It has never been a question of strikeout upside with Ray, it has more been that the walks have always gotten him into some serious trouble. This year however, he has limited the free passes to just 6.2%, allowing him to pitch to a SIERA of 3.09 which is the lowest on this entire slate. He also owns the highest strikeout rate on the evening of 32%, so this is our clear ace option against a strikeout-heavy Texas Rangers squad. We should expect a ceiling game here for double R and I want to have plenty of shares of it.
B. Another excellent option up top for my SP2 on FanDuel Friday night is Brandon Woodruff ($10,400). Woodruff draws a matchup against the Cincinnati Reds which is not typically a team that I look to attack, but that is why he is an SP2 tonight. With a 3.18 SIERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, and only a 5.8% walk rate this season, Woodruff is clearly an ace. The question comes down to do we want to pay more for a pitcher with a slightly lower strikeout rate in a much worse matchup, and I think that answer in most cases will be no. However if Ray’s ownership starts to skyrocket, Woodruff is a great alternative.
C. While I have some interest in Kevin Gausman, I want to save us some salary cap at SP3, so I will be rolling with Tyler Mahle ($8,800). While Mahle is not exactly an ace, he does boast some upside with a 29.5% strikeout rate this season, which is really one of the main metrics we should be concerned with when it comes to pitchers in DFS, since strikeouts are king and will make up for any runs allowed. His 3.61 SIERA and 8.8% walk rate are pedestrian, but Mahle is a fine option if we are in a pinch and need to save some salary cap on FanDuel.
The Bases
A. We return from the all star break the same way that we left it, looking to stack up the Toronto Blue Jays as much as humanly possible. I look to stack the Jays even when they have a moderately favorable matchup, so when they draw a matchup against a pitcher like Jordan Lyles, I look to get as much exposure as possible. Lyles is the proud owner of a 4.79 SIERA, which is the highest on the entire main slate this evening. He also only strikes out opposing batters at an 18.2% rate, while walking them 7.2% of the time. Lyles is one of the worst pitchers taking the mound against a team that had their all stars stay hot during the break as we saw in the all star game, so stack these bats up as much as you can per usual!
B. Another potent offense that seemingly draws a juicy matchup every night is the San Diego Padres. While this team was a lot more quiet than the Blue Jays during the all star game, that will not stop me from loading up on them in tournaments on FanDuel Friday night. The Padres will be taking swings against Erick Fedde and his 4.63 SIERA, 21.2% strikeout rate, and 8.2% walk rate. They are listed as significant favorites against a pitcher that does not really do anything very well on the mound these days. As usual, the Padres are one of the top options for bats tonight.
C. The final team that I will mix in to my lineups tonight is the Los Angeles Angels who are facing off against Chris Flexen and the Seattle Mariners bullpen. I frequently bash the Mariners in this article and for good reason, as they have been a disaster of a team since before the season even started. I really love the halos minus 0.5 runs for the first five in this game, and will also be targeting some of their bats as part of one-offs and mini stacks. Flexen has a 4.50 SIERA and is only striking out opposing batters 16.9% of the time. That just will not get the job done against an Angels squad that does not K at a high rate to begin with. Obviously Ohtani is the top target here, but I also have interest up and down the top of the order for this team tonight.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
