Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 7.5
We’ve got a win game slate tonight and it has pitching options, even if that’s a bit of a stretch. It’s not the best slate we’ve ever seen but before we go any further, a big congratulations to Brian for a big hit yesterday! His call to play Kenta Maeda at 5% continues to prove why he’s one of the best GPP minds in the business today!
Not only did Brian hit, Jason just missed a takedown and the Discord was FULL of winners yesterday. It was one of my favorite days of the MLB season so far because everyone was successful and seeing our community smash will always be filed under “Things You Love To See”. Let’s keep the good times rolling and talk about the Starting Rotation 7.5 and lay the foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 7.5 – Main Targets
Brandon Woodruff
I’m not even sure this would be my favorite spot but I see it similar to Saturday night. If you remember, that was the night Clayton Kershaw was pushing 60% even in GPP. I would think Woodruff is going to be around that as well but the spot is hard to gauge. The seasonal stats for the Mets look like an offense to attack. They whiff at a 24.1% rate, sit 25th in OPS, 27th in ISO, 24th in wOBA, and 17th in wRC+. However, the context of these stats has to account for the fact they were fielding a AAA lineup for a while and Francisco Lindor has started to hit more to expectations. Still, Woodruff has a 31.3% K rate, a 2.91 xFIP, a 12.2% swinging-strike rate, and a CSW over 30%. It’s a spot where something has to give and Woodruff is not cheap.
One of the metrics that still leads me to believe Woodruff will succeed is the way he’s pitched against lefty hitters so far. They’ve only managed a .194 wOBA, 33.3% K rate, 2.27 FIP, and a hard-hit rate under 29%. The Mets look like they’ll have six in the lineup and some of these metrics can be traced to the changeup. Woodruff uses the four-seam/sinker/change mix to lefties and even though the change has just 10 strikeouts on the year, it leads in whiff rate at 45.5%. That helps the four-seam rack up 67 strikeouts and those two pitches have a wOBA under .265. It’s not a perfect spot but there are plenty of metrics that support Woodruff’s success.
Max Fried
Just as they are against righty pitching, the Pirates are not a major strikeout team against lefties at just 22%. Having said that, they also can’t hit lefty pitching as they sit dead last in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging. Fried has had a bit of an odd year and dealt with some injuries but he does look like he might be finding some rhythm with at least 19.9 DK in three of his past four starts. What intrigues me with Fried is the four-seam has been his worst pitch with a .372 wOBA allowed, 15.2% whiff rate, and just 13 strikeouts on the season. The fact the Pirates scuffle so badly against that pitch leaves me hopeful that the issue doesn’t crop up in this spot.
His curve and slider have a total of 47 strikeouts and the curve is only sporting a .194 wOBA. Both of those pitches have a whiff rate over 31.5% so those three pitches could work really well together against this offense. Fried is generating an 11.6% swinging-strike rate, a 45.4% ground ball rate, and a hard-hit rate is only 25.3%. Pittsburgh leads the league in ground ball rate to lefty pitching and the Buccos are projected to have three lefties. That leaves Fried with even more upside as he has a 30.9% K rate to lefty hitters. This spot looks awesome on paper but I do wish Fried was a bit more trustworthy.
Koby Allard
It should be a pretty large hint that Allard is the third man in here that this slate is not great for pitching. He at least is under $8,000 and he has a K rate of 23.2% with a swinging-strike rate of 10%. Is that special, not really but we’re aiming for the Tigers to help carry the load in that department since they lead the league in K rate to lefties at 28.5%. That rate is almost a full 1% higher than second-place Tampa and Detroit is no higher than 26th in any of our other offensive categories.
It comes as a bit of a surprise that Allard doesn’t use his curve a little more often. The curve has the second-most strikeouts among his pitch mix, it has a .161 wOBA, and it also has the best whiff rate at 26.1%. The good news for Allard is his hard-hit rate is under 30% and he’s held righties to under a .300 wOBA. The K rate to that side is only 21.8% and the Tigers could have nine righty hitters tonight. Still, the price is low enough to take a shot here even if everything doesn’t look like a slam dunk.
Starting Rotation 7.5 Honorable Mention
Dylan Cease – I don’t love the price but Cease has been better than I thought when I first saw him in the slate. He has a K rate over 29% but what worries me is the past month looks somewhat more like his career thus far. June saw him rack up a 5.04 ERA and he struggled with the home run ball a little bit with a 1.48 HR/9. Minnesota should have four righties and that’s been an area of concern with Cease with a .335 wOBA and a 1.60 WHIP. The Twins also only whiff 22.7% of the time and this is the second time in a row Ceases has faced them. It’s enough for me to note him but I likely steer clear at this salary.
Joe Musgrove – I’m very interested to see what the field does between Musgrove and Fried. I personally lean Fried but Musgrove does inherit a good spot. He’s at home and even though the month of June wasn’t his best, this is still a pitcher that boasts a K rate of 30% and has both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA. Big Joe has been especially good against righty hitters at a .211 wOBA and a 2.69 FIP. The largest issue from the pitch mix perspective is the four-seam/cutter and he uses them more to lefties. Both pitches have a wOBA over .335 and the cutter is pushing .380. Musgrove has given up 10 long balls and seven have come from those two pitches. Juan Soto has started to heat up a little bit and would be an interesting one-off since he ranks well against both those pitches this season.
Starting Rotation 7.5 Primary Stack
We all know it’s a Jon Lester Slate so RIP to Brian’s bankroll and most of my day will likely be spent trying to figure out how to fit Padres, my favorite pitchers, and the Chicago Cubs against Matt Moore. He’s faced 71 righties so far and they’ve hit him for a .422 wOBA, 6.56 FIP, and a 5.80 xFIP. He’s also throwing his fastball 53% of the time to righty hitters. It’s getting mauled so far with a 50% hard-hit rate, a .205 ISO, and an average distance of 319 feet. Parts of the Cubs lineup wreck lefty fastballs.
Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom, and even Jake Marisnick all stand out against this pitch. All of these hitters have at least a .333 wOBA and everyone but Marisnick sits over .280 for the ISO. Even if you choose to not go with a Cubs stack, Bryant is one of my favorite hitters on the slate since he’s under $5,000.
Starting Rotation 7.5 Secondary Stacks
- Padres against Jon Lester
- Rays against Logan Allen
- Braves against Chase De Jong
- Reds against Mike Minor
- Brewers against Tylor Megill
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
