Starting Rotation 7.3

Starting Rotation 7.3

It is Split Slate Saturday and we have six games in the afternoon and seven in the evening! That’s a whole lot of MLB action and more chances for us to win some money. The Afternoon slate has some solid options at every price point while the evening….well, the evening looks ghastly. For that reason, we’ll do the full breakdown in the afternoon and the notes in the evening. Let’s go to work in the Starting Rotation 7.3! 

Starting Rotation 7.3 – Afternoon Targets 

Yu Darvish 

This spot profiles extremely well for Darvish today. He gets the Phillies who whiff 24.9% of the time and even though the wOBA is higher to righties for Darvish at .273, the K rate jumps to 33.7%. That’s what we like to see when Darvish should face five righties plus the pitcher. Philly is 12th against the cutter but that doesn’t destroy this matchup in my eyes.

The odd part about Darvish is he uses the cutter the most of any pitch but it easily has the worst wOBA of his mix at .421. What balances things out is every other pitch is under a .205 wOBA and has at least 13 strikeouts. Darvish is rocking a 30.5% K rate overall and a 12.4% swinging-strike rate. He is the only pitcher averaging over 20 DK points on the slate but that doesn’t mean others don’t have some serious upside.

Tyler Mahle

Is Mahle expensive on this slate? Sure is. Does that mean I’m not interested in a pitcher that sports a 30% K rate on the season against the Cubs and their league-leading 26.7% K rate against righties? No, it does not. Sonny Gray whiffed eight yesterday in just five innings of work, on a pitch count. Mahle is just two starts removed from a 35.3 DK point outing with 12 strikeouts and he’s got that same potential today. The xFIP is only 3.51, the fly-ball rate is under 38%, and the swinging-strike rate is 12%. His four-seam has 64 strikeouts out of the 105 total Mahle has on the season and it has a 28.9% whiff rate. Chicago sitting 20th against that pitch really should help Mahle today and his fastball is ranked inside the top 20 in FanGraphs rating. 

Some folks may want to point out the bloated home ERA but he has faced the Cubs once before, Arizona, St. Louis, San Francisco, Colorado, and Atlanta. He did stumble in the Rockies’ start but past that, it’s hard to fault him against some of those offenses. This version of the Chicago offense should have five lefties in it plus the pitcher spot. That should work out for Mahle and his .257 wOBA, 33.9% K rate, and his 3.33 xFIP. He will be on my radar today. 

Kyle Muller 

Right off the bat, we can say that we shouldn’t expect another 30+ DK points from Muller. We also don’t need near that amount because DK only moved his price by $600 to $5,300 after that start. That’s…an interesting choice. His secondary pitches are standing out in whiff rate so far with the slider sitting at 48.1% and the curve sitting at 53.3%. Of course, those aren’t guaranteed to stay that high for the young lefty but it’s a very positive start. Across 65 curves, he has yet to allow a hit and it only has one BBE. Miami has a 27.5% K rate to lefties and I almost wrote up Drew Smyly last night but there was too much fear with regression. Muller only has a 3.72 xFIP to go with a 32.5% K rate and a 15.7% swinging-strike rate. He’s simply wayyyyyy too cheap for the metrics that he’s put on paper so far.

Starting Rotation Special 

To me, this really shouldn’t be a Special play but I’m betting this pitcher doesn’t catch much attention, especially if Muller is popular. His last start was one of his best on the season but the previous three were a little uneven as far results. This lefty continued to improve in June, posting a 3.14 ERA, .293 wOBA, 3.49 xFIP, and a 30.8% K rate along with a 0.94 HR/9. Everything except the K rate was the best mark this year for any month and I don’t think we’ll whine too much about a K rate over 30%. 

His slider has a whiff rate over 38% and the changeup is at a rate of 54.1%. The three pitches after his four-seam all have a wOBA under .270 on the year which are all great signs. Five hitters that he’s slated to face have an ISO under .070 and a wOBA no higher than .330. All five of those hitters also feature a K rate over 22% and four are over 26%. In June, this offense hit the skids against lefties with a 26% K rate. They were also below league average in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Call me a sucker for pitchers with a pedigree, but I’m playing Tarik Skubal once again.

Just look at the bottom of this lineup. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Afternoon Honorable Mention 

Sandy Alcantara – We don’t always love attacking the Braves offense but the marlins are going to need any length they can get from him today after Pablo Lopez got ejected one pitch into yesterday’s game. His K rate has come down to 21.7% which presents a bit of an issue at a salary over $9,000. The K rate to righties does jump to 25% but it’s still not enough to be a main target with Mahle just a little bit more. 

Eric Lauer – I’m not totally convinced on the ceiling here, but Lauer hasn’t been that bad in his 44 IP so far. Sure, the ERA is 4.50 but the xFIP does come down to 3.93 and Pittsburgh is dead last in ISO, slugging, OPS, and wOBA to lefties on the year. They don’t strike out a lot at just 22.4% but Lauer could go 6-7 strong innings here with 4-5 strikeouts. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Afternoon Primary Stack 

Say it with me, kids – Milwaukee. Brewers. Cody Ponce takes the mound for the Bucs today and the Brewers sure look like they are in a smash spot. Ponce has only faced 50 lefties and 54 righties in his career but lefties sit at a .446 wOBA, 3.97 HR/9, 8.57 FIP, and a 6.68 xFIP. The lefty trio of Jace Peterson, Christian Yelich, and Omar Narvaez look fantastic in this spot as all three are over a .360 wOBA and .145 ISO. Ponce uses the fastball about 32% against that side of the plate and all of those hitters are over a .399 wOBA. I’m looking to kick in Willy Adames as well with a .243 ISO as a Brewer against righty pitching. The best part of this stack is you could likely even go double-ace approach if we get the right value pieces from other teams. If not, we can pick one of Darvish or Mahle and pair them with Muller or the Special. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Afternoon Secondary Stacks 

• Reds against Adbert Alzolay (lefties from the lineup)
• Padres against Zach Eflin 
• Tigers against Dallas Keuchel 
• Royals against Griffin Jax 

Starting Rotation 7.3 – Evening Targets 

Clayton Kershaw – Buckle up everyone because this slate is rough for pitching. Of the 14 total starters, there are only 3-5 pitchers that I’d even consider after a glance. Kershaw is of course going to be one of them, despite the difficult matchup on paper. He’s priced at his normal spot because he racked up a massive 43 DK point score last time out against the Cubs offense that can’t stop striking out. The Nationals are a different breed statistically. 

They rank sixth in average, second in OBP, 11th in slugging, 10th in OPS, 21st in ISO (that helps), eighth in wOBA, and finally fifth in wRC+. Does that mean Kershaw can’t succeed? Absolutely not. We just have to note that Washington is typically very good against lefties and they rank 10th against the slider this year at -6.1. Yes, that is the 10th best mark against sliders. Kershaw has a K rate over 30.5% and a swinging-strike rate of 16.5%. The .302 wOBA to righties looks a little scary but the K rate bumps up to 31% to that side and the xFIP is 2.75. On a slate bereft of options, anchoring to Kershaw is appealing. 

Jake Odorizzi – He’s just pumping in fastballs right now, throwing one 61.2% of the time which is 20% more than last year. It has generated a 25.2% whiff rate and just a .226 wOBA, which are both impressive for one that sits around 92 MPH. Odorizzi hasn’t pitched a ton this year due to injury but both sides of the plate are hovering around a 27% strikeout rate. He does carry a 4.46 xFIP to lefties but this Cleveland offense has shown issues all season long. They are in the bottom half of the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They are also 21st against the fastball so Odorizzi makes all the sense in the world. 

Marco Gonzales – Do I even really like this play? Not exactly, and Texas does strike out less to lefties at a 23.3% rate. They are also 22nd in OPS, 28th in ISO, 23rd in wOBA, and wRC+. Additionally, Texas is dead last in fly-ball rate against lefties at just 29.9%. They are the only team under 31% this season. Gonzales does have a 5.08 xFIP to righty hitters but if Texas can’t get the ball in the air, that metric will matter a lot less. Every pitch in his arsenal has at least a 22% whiff rate except for the sinker but Gonzales is cheap enough to consider even with a 20.3% K rate this year. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Evening Honorable Mention 

Alex Cobb – Playing Cobb is playing Russian Roulette with your lineup because there is no telling what might happen. The metrics would tell us he’s been horrifically unlucky so far. His 5.09 ERA is WAY beyond the 2.65 FIP and 2.79 xFIP. He’s the reverse Jon Lester, basically. Cobb has gotten smoked in some starts but has flashed 30+ DK upside in others. 

The sinker and curve don’t help him a whole lot with a .336 wOBA and .338 wOBA respectively, but the splitter has the best whiff rate of any pitch at 36.9%. Baltimore is 22nd against that pitch and even their righty-heavy lineup doesn’t exactly help us solve the equation for Cobb. His .364 wOBA appears awful but the .422 BABIP has to normalize and the FIP/xFIP combo is 2.86/2.58. He could prove to be a very interesting pivot to Kershaw but the outcomes are truly anything. 

Sammy Long – We’re talking just a handful of starts and Long has been up and down, much like any rookie pitcher. In his 20 IP, the wOBA to lefties is .204 and the K rate is up to 32%. The xFIP is fine at 4.07 and Arizona should have six lefties plus the pitcher spot in their lineup. Long has leaned on the four-seam/curve/changeup mix so far. His curve has 11 of 19 strikeouts, a .137 wOBA, and a 31.9% whiff rate while the change has a 33.3% whiff rate as well. Arizona did get to him once but Long has some promise thus far and he is worth a look on this slate. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Evening Primary Stack

Garrett Richards has gotten destroyed since the MLB crackdown on sticky stuff and his ERA for June was 7.16 with a .443 wOBA and a 5.12 xFIP. The WHIP is over 2.00 and either side of the plate is well in play. The top end of the A’s aren’t cheap but they could turn into a great pivot from Coors Field. Richards has a hard-hit rate of 49% on his fastball with an average distance of 294 feet. Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chad Pinder, Jed Lowrie, and Sean Murphy ALL have ISO’s over .255 and wOBA’s over .325 against that pitch. Richards throws it over 48% to each side of the plate and in his last four starts, he’s gotten tagged for 17 ER, six HR, and a total of -3.7 DK points. 

Starting Rotation 7.3 Evening Secondary Stacks 

• Coors Field 
• Angels against Jorge Lopez
• Giants against Jake Faria
• Red Sox against Cole Irvin 
• Astros against Eli Morgan 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 7.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!