Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy hump day! Check out the FanDuel MLB 6/30 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. There are nine games on the docket for tonight and lock is at 7:05. That is a refreshing slate size after that brutal 15 gamer last night where we just have too many options to really narrow anything down. We also do need to keep an eye on the weather in a couple of spots, but nothing looks like a strong chance for a PPD so I will not exclude any games from my analysis at this point. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. To kick things off I will be going right back to the well on a pitcher that I have probably written up more than anyone else this season, Joe Musgrove ($8,700). Joe just never seems to be priced up where he should be and it always feels like we are getting him at a discount. Yes, he is throwing in the Great American Smallpark against a solid Cincinnati Reds offense, but we are getting a big discount here relative to his skill level.
Musgrove owns a 3.19 SIERA which is the lowest on the entire day today, along with the second highest strikeout rate of 31.6%, trailing only Shohei Ohtani. He also limits walks and runs in general, as he posts a quality start nearly every outing. Musgrove is simply way too cheap, but it is good to see FanDuel at least adjust for the tricky matchup and ballpark.
B. It is not often that my SP2 is more expensive than my SP1, but that is the case today because of the crazy discount we are getting on Musgrove. For my SP2 I will be looking to Aaron Nola ($11,000), who draws a much more favorable matchup against the punch-less Miami Marlins.
Nola is right behind Musgrove in terms of both SIERA and strikeout rate, as he sports a 3.32 and 30.4%, respectively. In other words, we are getting a more talented pitcher for $2,300 less salary. If we ignore the matchup, then we should not even really be considering Nola, however the much more preferable matchup does keep him in play. It will be interesting to see where ownership shakes out between these two, as I would generally expect Nola to carry heavier ownership in this spot as the top priced pitcher of the night.
C. My final pitcher for Wednesday night on FanDuel is one that I expect to be listed as a very large favorite, Luis Garcia ($10,500). The Astros will be taking on the Triple A team that someone snuck into the MLB, the Baltimore Orioles. This team is just a sad excuse for a major league club, rocking a 26-54 record and failing to generate much run production each night out.
Garcia owns a decent 3.90 SIERA, 26.2% strikeout rate, and 8.1% walk rate. His numbers are pretty mediocre across the board, so really the only thing justifying this price tag is a matchup against the Orioles. While that is far from a ringing endorsement, that is why he is my SP3. I could also look to Chris Bassitt in this spot, but after that I would not touch any of our other options tonight.
The Bases
A. Turning over to the offense side of the game, I will be going back to a team that was in a great spot yesterday but did not quite produce enough to earn anyone GPP takedowns, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies will be drawing a matchup against essentially a minor league pitcher, Jordan Holloway.
While Holloway has actually been able to limit runs very well in terms of his ERA, his SIERA suggests that this will not continue. Whenever we see a SIERA that is more than double an ERA, this immediately tells us that the pitcher in question has been very lucky. Jordan owns a 2.50 ERA, but a massive 5.44 SIERA that is the highest on the main slate. While we are missing a few gas cans to target since they are in the early slate, this is as good of a spot as any for Philly tonight.
B. My second favorite team to target for FanDuel on Wednesday night is once again the San Diego Padres. I will continue to roster this team in all formats night in and night out throughout this season as they are an offensive juggernaut. This is a group of bats that can tee off on any pitcher, so when they face a pitcher like Vladimir Gutierrez, then it is just a no-brainer.
Gutierrez owns a massive 5.20 SIERA, a very low 18.2% strikeout rate, and a very high 10.8% walk rate. This is the exact type of pitcher that this Padres team can hang a double digit number on in a hurry. Also, as I mentioned above, this ballpark is great for run production so stacking the Padres is an excellent idea in both cash games and tournaments.
C. The final team that I will be looking to mix into my teams tonight is the Kansas City Royals. It pains me to stack the team that is facing my hometown Boston Red Sox, but this pitching staff is just absolutely brutal this season. They need Chris Sale back and they need him back yesterday, but somehow this team has been able to ride its bats to a first place position for the time being.
This Royals offense has caught fire in Fenway Park, as the already hitter-friendly ballpark has seen heat waves shoot towards triple digits this week. I personally have been blasting my central air all week and that will not end today. Combine the favorable hitting weather with a small ballpark and a terrible pitcher in Martin Perez, and we have the perfect combination for run production as I expect the Royals keep things rolling today. Hopefully the Sox are able to put up another 7+ run game themselves to keep this one competitive.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
