Starting Rotation 6.26

Starting Rotation 6.26

We have two slates of MLB action today, one 10 game and one four-game. This is going to be a Super Size Starting Rotation because I’m going to be covering Brian for Picks and Pivots as well! The 10 game slate will have the full breakdown with offenses and the four-game slate will be a bit more condensed but cover all the bases. Brian will be doing the same for Sunday, but let’s get right to work today since we have quite a bit to get to in the Starting Rotation 6.26! 

Starting Rotation 6.26 – Main Slate Targets 

Jacob deGrom 

Play him. Move on. 

Alright, I’m going to go slightly more in-depth since there have been some injury concerns the past couple of starts. I would be lying if I said I didn’t have some small worries because the Mets are going to baby deGrom without question. The flip side is there are no adjectives left to describe how he’s pitching this season. The K rate is over 46%, the xFIP is 1.59 along with a 0.86 FIP, and righty hitters have a .149 wOBA against him. By the way, the K rate for righties is over 50% and Philly likely has five plus the pitcher spot. In his past two starts, deGrom has scored 22.8 and 25.5 DK points on 51 and 70 pitches. If he throws 90 pitches, there’s every chance he puts up over 30 DK points and I’m going to be on the right side of that. 

Lance Lynn

Lynn struggled a good deal last start but the Astros offense and the Mariners offense are at very opposite ends of the spectrum. It’s worth noting that his spin rates were down as well. Houston is dead last in K rate under 20% to righties while Seattle is sitting third at 26.2% at the start of Friday night. The Mariners do have some pop at 16th in ISO but are 23rd or lower in OPS, slugging, wOBA, and wRC+. If there’s one reason why I wouldn’t try to force Lynn next to deGrom, the splits would suggest that it won’t be a ceiling game for Lynn. Seattle has five lefties in the normal lineup and Lynn drops to 22.2% for the K rate to that side of the plate. The xFIP is also a scary 4.80 and we mentioned that Seattle is quietly average in one power metric. 

The question is which you’re going to put more weight on. It’s not like these are elite lefty hitters he’s going against and he still has a 26% hard-hit rate and a 12.6% swinging-strike rate on the year. I do have some concerns here and I’m not sure we need to go here, but it’s always hard to not at least consider a pitcher with the talent level of Lynn against an offense like the Mariners. 

Adrian Houser 

We can keep this one relatively short because there’s one major reason Houser makes it today and it’s the Rockies Road matchup. Houser only has an 18.7% K rate but he also boasts a 60% ground ball rate. That’s going to come into play in a big way since the Rockies now lead the league in ground ball rate to righties outside of Coors. They are also fourth in K rate at 27.3% so that’s going to bump up the K rate potential for Houser in theory anyway. It also should help Hosmer that the Rockies will normally have only three lefties in their lineup. The .308 wOBA against righties isn’t anything special but the 3.74 xFIP and 21.7% K rate helps a whole lot. I’m curious to see what the field does with him on this slate especially since the next pitcher is likely heavy chalk. 

Kenta Maeda 

I would think Maeda will be chalk again and his game log looks sort of worse than it should. He was very good through five innings before slipping in the sixth. That’s not a big surprise since he only threw 76 pitches in the first game back. He’ll need to continue to build up but inches time on the mound, he still generated a 39% whiff rate on the slider and 30% on the splitter. The slider was up from the seasonal number of 28.7% and that’s what we want to see from a primary pitch.

There are still some issues in Maeda’s profile since returning and in his 9.1 IP he has a 4.35 xFIP. The K rate is 27.5% and he’s been better to lefties throughout the season. The xFIP overall is 3.89 and the K rate is 22.5%. One aspect that has to be pointed out is the BABIP to both sides is over .310 and in June, it’s come down to .261. I’m not head over heels for Maeda but he makes far too much sense to pair with deGrom and even 15 DK makes you happy at $6,800. 

Starting Rotation Special 

This section has been pretty successful so far, hitting three out of four players. Let’s try and make it four out of five today with a mystery pitcher who looks like a different player in June. Through those 17.1 IP, he has a 3.12 ERA, .269 wOBA, 3.92 xFIP, and the K rate has jumped from 21.9% to 28.6%. His swinging-strike rate in the three June starts has been 17.1%, 17.4%, and 13%. Now, the last start came against a lefty-heavy lineup and that’s not the best for his strikeout upside. The wOBA is .294 but the K rate is just 19.7%. Flip it over to the right side and the K rate jumps to 31.3%, a massive swing. There should be at least five righties in the lineup but this is where things get fun. 

Since the start of May, this offense ranks 16th in wRC+, 15th in wOBA, 26th in ISO, 19th in ISO, 25th in slugging, and they have a K rate of 24.7%. On top of all of that, the ground ball rate is still over 47% and that is the third-most. The mystery pitcher has jumped from a 23.1% ground ball rate to 41.5% this month and the hard-hit rate is 31.8%. Adding all of these factors up and knowing that Logan Gilbert has a fantastic prospect pedigree makes him a sneaky good play today. The fact Maeda is $400 cheaper makes this pick quite fun. With the injuries to the White Sox lineup, they can be a target to use pitchers against for now. 

Starting Rotation 6.26 Honorable Mention Main Slate 

Luis Castillo – The 24.2 IP in June suggests Castillo has turned a corner. He’s rocking a 2.19 ERA, .221 wOBA, 26.8% K rate, and a 3.31 xFIP. The swinging-strike rate in those four starts has been at least 11.5% and three have been above 13.5%. That’s all A. a big improvement over what he’s put forth this season and B. more in line with expectations at the start of the season. Having said that, I don’t have the trust factor to drop $10,500 on him today and will play deGrom 100 times out of 100. 

Shane McClanahan – I’m a little worried about the price jump coming off the best start in his young career and the Angels don’t whiff a lot against lefties at 21.4%. We do have to note the 29% K rate and just a 7.5% walk rate, both impressive for a 24-year old in his first real major league action. He’s also generating a 49.1% ground ball rate but you really want some strikeouts at this salary. His slider has been his best pitch and he uses it as a primary. It has a .236 wOBA, 48.4% whiff rate, and 36 of 54 strikeouts. The bad news is the Angels are third against that pitch so this doesn’t strike me as the place where we pay up for him. 

Hyun Jin Ryu – He’s an odd case because he only has a K rate of 20.8% while his CSW of 28.3% is the best since 2018. The swinging-strike rate of 10% does support the dip in K rate and it keeps me off him as a main target. However, the Orioles offense has been getting smacked lately. I mean, Anthony Kay posted 20+ DK points. Anthony. Kay. Despite Ryu not being exactly as good as he has been in the past, he’s far more talented than Kay. 

Starting Rotation 6.26 Hitter Targets 

Well, this isn’t going to be reinventing the wheel or anything but we have got to figure out a way to get some Blue Jays exposure once again. The Orioles are rolling out lefty Keegan Akin who has a 5.03 xFIP to righty hitters. The fly-ball rate is right about 40% but he really only throws a fastball and changeup to that side. The fastball is giving up a 48.7% hard contact rate and the Jays lineup destroys lefty fastballs. The righties in the offense feature at least a .327 wOBA and a .202 ISO. The lone exception is Bo Bichette who only has a .065 ISO but everyone else just crushes this pitch. 

Looking at the changeup (and these two pitches make up 82% of Akin’s arsenal) and it doesn’t get better. Marcus Semien, Vlad Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel are all above a .200 ISO against that change. Randal Grichuk is at a .169 mark but has a .351 mark against the fastball. Now, fitting in both Vlad and Semien could be a challenge with deGrom but Springer, Gurriel, and Grichuk are all easy to play. Springer to me is one of the premier plays on the slate given his price tag and his power potential. I believe a four-man Jays stack with deGrom and one of our cheaper pitchers is very attainable. 

If we’re rolling with some of the cheaper Toronto outfielders and picking Vlad or Semien, that means we need some infielders and we have an offense that fits perfectly with the Jays in a great spot of their own. The Twins draw lefty Sam Hentges who has gotten beat up for a .407 wOBA to righty hitters. I will grant you that the BABIP is .444 and the xFIP is 3.92 but the Minnesota offense has some good righties to counter that. Ryan Jeffers, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, and even Andrelton Simmons all make the cut for me. Hentges uses the fastball and curve 78% of the time and the fastball is 47%. It also has a .281 ISO and .538 wOBA given up with only a 7.3% whiff rate. He cannot generate swings and misses with a pitch he throws 47% of the time! 

Donaldson, Cruz, Jeffers, and even Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff have an ISO over .345 against that pitch. The whiff rates are high for them but that doesn’t even worry me against Hentges. Jeffers especially stands out as he’s projected to hit cleanup for just $3,000. Using hitters like him, Springer, and even a wraparound option like Simmons really affords the big names you want in the lineup. 

Starting Rotation 6.26 Stacking Options Main Slate 

• Marlins against Patrick Corbin
• Brewers against Antonio Senzatela 
• Rangers against Kris Bubic 

Starting Rotation 6.26 – Evening Slate

Nathan Eovaldi – I really don’t have the stomach to spend up on this small slate. Julio Urias generated just four whiffs on his curveball the last start and the timing is suspect since that’s when MLB started checking for foreign substances. Urias, Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw, and Walker Buehler all saw a sip in spin rate this week. That’s not a coincidence and while some were less drastic than others, I can’t find a reason to spend on Urias against a righty-heavy lineup with other potential issues. 

Back to Eovaldi, the .343 wOBA to righties doesn’t look like what we want against the Yankees but that pesky .378 BABIP is silly high. His K rate is at 23% to that side of the plate and the xFIP is 3.11. The quibble is his slider is the second pitch to righties and it hasn’t been great with a .394 wOBA but it also has a 36.5% whiff rate. It also generates a 55% ground ball rate and New York is whiffing 25% to righty pitching and sit no higher than 12th in any offensive category. 

Dinelson Lamet – It might be the first time he’s made it as a main target all season and while he’s still only throwing about 80-ish pitches, there is upside at this price. There are also only seven other options so let’s remember that. This spot should steer into Lamet’s strengths as he whiffs lefty hitters at 30.8% and the .299 wOBA is being somewhat fueled by the .400 BABIP. The xFIP to that side is only 3.25 and Arizona is 22nd against the slider this year. Lamet uses the slider about 51% of the time and has a 39.7% whiff rate with just a .204 wOBA. 

Jordan Montgomery – The ultimate roller coaster and not a player that I’d likely utilize, but Boston sits outside the top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, OBP, and are down at 19th in Iso to lefty pitching. The K rate isn’t high at 22.1% but Montgomery is at 24%. Only two projected Boston hitters are over a .350 wOBA against lefties this year and only three are above a .200 ISO. Montgomery uses the curve and the change as his primary two pitches and both are below a .260 wOBA and above a 39% whiff rate. The scary part is Boston is top-five against both pitches but on this small of a slate, it may be worth it to take a chance with a pitcher that has shown 30 DK point upside. 

Starting Rotation 6.26 Stacking Options Main Slate 

• Giants against Frankie Montas – he struggles outside of Oakland and the Giants lefties smack the sinker around, which Montas uses 50% of the time to that side of the plate. 
• Padres against Merrill Kelly – Righties have a .350 wOBA and a 1.93 HR/9 against Kelly this season. 
• Cubs against Julio Urias – Urias struggled in that last start and if his curve isn’t working, it’s going to be an issue. Perhaps just a small stack like Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and maybe Javier Baez would make some sense here. 
• Dodgers against Alec Mills – The wOBA to lefties is .415 with an xFIP over 5.00 and a K rate under 13%. That’s not what you want against a powerful offense like LA and the fact we don’t have a strong need to spend on pitching makes them more affordable. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.26 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!