Starting Rotation 6.20

Starting Rotation 6.20

Sunday brings us a relatively small slate of nine games and the pitching is….fine, I suppose. I’m not sure it’s the best we’ll ever see but we’ve absolutely dealt with worse recently. It is another slate where I don’t have an overwhelming desire to pay the top-end salaries, but let’s discuss it in the Starting Rotation 6.20!

Starting Rotation 6.20

Taijuan Walker 

Maybe the greatness that is Jacob deGrom has rubbed off on Walker. Maybe it’s just a hot start to the season. It’s most likely some subtle changes to his pitch mix but regardless, Walker deserves to carry this price tag based on this season’s performance. He’s sporting a 2.12 ERA (the 3.84 xFIP is a bit scary for sure), his K rate is 26.9%, and the CSW is 30.2%. The swinging-strike rate won’t wow you at 9.6% but that is up almost 2% from 2020. Walker has started to use his sinker more and even though I generally despise that pitch, it’s mostly working for him. 

While it does carry a .316 wOBA, that’s a massive improvement over the .474 mark it had last year. It has held the velocity at 93 MPH but the four-seam is up near 95 MPH and it’s playing better with the sinker. Both pitches have bumped up in whiff rate and the four-seam has 37 of 72 strikeouts thus far. The only complaint I would have past the xFIP is the Nationals will likely have five righty hitters and the pitcher’s spot. On the year, Walker has a .264 wOBA to that side and his K rate dips to 22.7%. You can argue the ceiling could be tough to come by since Washington only whiffs 22.8% but Walker has been so good that I’m fine playing him today. 

Lance McCullers 

This play might seem odd, but it calls back to Brian’s Picks and Pivots Friday night since we can actually target the White Sox offense with righty pitching. McCullers came back from injury and threw 77 pitches last time out, so 90-95 seems like a very attainable count to hit this time. One of the most appealing facets is the ground ball rate for McCullers, which sits at 55%. That would be third in the league if he qualified and the White Sox are still scuffling with ground balls as they lead the league against righty pitching at 50%. The K rate is also 23.6% so there’s absolutely room here to put up a big score. 

McCullers is fairly even across the splits as neither side of the plate is above a .284 wOBA and both whiff at least 25.5% of the time. Chicago likely has five righties and they have produced a 61.7% ground ball rate. With all three of the curve, change, and slider producing a whiff rate above 33.5%, I like McCullers here and doubt he’s very popular. 

JT Brubaker 

This is an interesting spot because Brubaker hasn’t been great lately but he’s had some tough draws. Cleveland isn’t the scariest offense ever and losing the DH doesn’t hurt Brubaker at all. I grant you that Cleveland doesn’t strike out a ton at just 22.6% but do how many strikeouts do we need at this salary? The answer is not a ton and 5-6 can make it work provided Brubaker controls the rest of the game. Cleveland ranking seventh against the slider is notable, but they are also just a hair into the negatives. Brubaker’s slider has been pretty good as well with a 37.1% whiff rate and 33 of 63 strikeouts. I don’t want to make it out as an elite pitch because it does have a .333 wOBA and has given up five home runs but at least Cleveland is outside of the top 12 in OPS and ISO. Brubaker is also a little better to the left side of the plate with a .307 wOBA and 0.95 HR/9. I’m not totally in love here but if you want big bats, you’ll have to take some chances. 

Kenta Maeda 

This will almost surely be the most popular player on the slate because Maeda came back from injury and posted 17 DK points on 76 pitches. It’s easy to just throw the result out there but to me, there is strong reason to buy into Maeda past the fact DK knocked his price down $1,100 for no real reason. When we pull up the breakdown, it’s not hard to see some serious improvement on his CSW% and the whiff rate. 

On the season, the CSW is just 28% so Maeda saw a bump of nearly 6%. He also generated 12 whiffs on 33 swings, which is excellent to see. What is even more impressive about this is his velocity wasn’t quite back yet as every pitch was down about 0.5-1.0 MPH. Even with the struggles Maeda had to start the year, he still has a 24.5% K rate to lefty hitters and a 3.49 xFIP. If he continues to show he’s healthy, this should be the cheapest 20 DK on the board and a borderline free square in one of your pitcher slots. 

Starting Rotation 6.20 Honorable Mention 

Sean Manaea – My biggest gripe about paying top dollar is it becomes more difficult to afford some expensive stacks that I like and I’m not sure this is the best ceiling spot for Manaea. The Yanks have the ability to throw nine righties at him and on the year, righty hitters have a .333 wOBA, 19% K rate, and a 4.41 ERA. With all of that plus pitching in Yankee Stadium, he’ll be a pass for me. 

Nathan Eovaldi – If the stats for this year hold up, it’s not the best spot for Eovaldi but neither was his last start against Toronto. He has a .348 wOBA against righties which could be problematic against the Royals (not to mention they don’t have a big K rate at just 22.2%) but it has to be noted that the BABIP for righties is .378. If that normalizes instead of the wOBA holding up, Eovaldi has a path to another 18-20 DK points today. 

Jordan Montgomery – Perhaps the ultimate GPP play today, Montgomery has been a dynamo and he’s gotten obliterated. Oakland is very good to lefties with a top-eight rank in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. However, they also whiff 24.2% of the time which is 10th. Montgomery also has a 23.6% and a 41% ground ball rate so he has the toolkit. It’s just not a spot that I’m going out of my way to play. 

Starting Rotation 6.20 Stacking Options

• Blue Jays against Matt Harvey 
• Mets against Patrick Corbin 
• Astros against Dallas Keuchel
• Orioles against Hyun Jin Ryu
• Pirates against Sam Hentges

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!