Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.5
We have all 30 teams in action again today but DK has split them into nine and six-game slates. The larger slate is in the afternoon so we’ll be doing the full breakdown there (and we have options, score!), and then the six-game slate will be notes-based. There is a ton of ground to cover so let’s get rolling and dig into the Starting Rotation 6.5 to lay our framework for green screens!
Starting Rotation 6.5 – Early Slate
Brandon Woodruff
I worried about the ceiling potential for Freddy Peralta last night and all he did was take a no-hitter into the seventh. Milwaukee is a favorite of Starting Rotation because 60% of their rotation is in play every day, and Woodruff is one of those three. He has been lights out so far this season with a 1.27 ERA and only a 2.15 FIP and a 2.77 xFIP, so those are not concerns. The WHIP is under 0.70 and the K rate is just under 32% with a 31.4% CSW and 12.7% swinging-strike rate.
His four-seam has been electric this season and is currently rated as the best fastball on FanGraphs. Of the 83 strikeouts recorded by Woodruff, 52 have come from the four-seam. It’s yielded a .088 average, .162 wOBA, and boasts a 30.5% whiff rate. The splits aren’t a big deal here either as both sides are under a .195 wOBA (lefties are at a .170 mark) and lefties also strike out a bit more at 33.6%. Woodruff has scored at least 32 DK in four of his last five starts and is honestly not priced accurately at $10,300.
Lucas Giolito
Giolito is on a roll in his last three starts with 21 IP, three ER, and 28 strikeouts. his is pretty much what we excepted from him at the start of the year and it’s been a bumpy road but we should all feel comfortable playing him. The last time he saw Detroit he only scored 16.2 DK points but manager Tony LaRussa (surprise to absolutely no one) made a bad call and left him in about 20 pitches too long. Giolito is back over a 30% K rate and he’s only getting hit hard 29.5% while sporting a 15.8% swinging-strike rate, which is seventh in baseball.
Giolito’s changeup is the money pitch, ranked fifth in FanGraphs rating and it has racked up 48 of 78 strikeouts so far. It also sports the lowest average at .171 and the lowest wOBA at .229 with a 40.5% whiff rate. It also helps that Giolito is better to the left side of the plate with a .259 wOBA and the K rate is approaching 32%. With Detroit being mostly lefties, Giolito is in a great spot against an offense that has improved but still whiffs well over 25% of the time.
Trevor Rogers
This little tier is loaded and it’s honestly hard to pick just one. If you decided to go with John Means (love, love the spot for him) or Rich Hill (who offers very interesting salary savings over Means or Rogers), I’m not going to argue in the least. I’m siding with Rogers here because he gets the weakest offense to pick on, even with Ke’Bryan Hayes back for Pittsburgh. The Buccos rank 28th in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and 23rd in OBP with a 23.7% K rate. Rogers comes into this game with a 1.87 ERA and a 3.26 xFIP but it doesn’t appear the Pirates can make that hurt.
He also sports a 30.5% K rate and his four-seam has 49 of 75 strikeouts to this point. With the Bucs ranking dead last against that pitch, we should be licking our chops for the upside here. The splits are very similar here with the K rate being almost dead equal and neither side of the plate hitting for over a .298 wOBA, and that’s the lefties. Pittsburgh typically has six righties plus the pitching spot in their lineup, perfect for Rogers.
Chase De Jong
If we just look at the career numbers, De Jong would be totally uninteresting. However, he’s followed the route of most pitchers and seen an increase in spin rate and velocity, and the strikeouts have followed. In the 20 IP this season in AAA, his K rate is 33.7% and it was 25% in his first start. Miami is a top-five K-rate team to righty pitching at 26.1% and is typically not anything to worry about offensively. Let’s check in with what Brian said before the last start –
De Jong touched 95 MPH in his previous start and the wOBA against the four-seam is only .189 in nine BBE. There’s plenty of risks here and maybe you don’t need to go this low, but De Jong has shown improvement on his pitches and we don’t need much at this salary from an SP2.
Honorable Mention
Aaron Civale – It’s hard to look past the Means, Rogers, and Hill trio but Civale could go totally overlooked with a very good shot at scoring 20 DK points.
Jose Berrios – He’s put together three very strong starts in a row, which means Berrios is about due to have an average or sub-par start.
Starting Rotation 6.5 – Early Slate Stacking Options
- Rays against Kolby Allard (Randy Arozarena, Mike Zunino, Manuel Margot, Mike Brosseau, Austin Meadows)
- Astros against Ross Stripling (Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve)
- This strikes me as a slate to take 2-3 hitters in a lineup instead of a full-on 4-5 man stack past the two big lineups. It’s a fairly stout pitching slate on paper.
Starting Rotation 6.5 – Evening Slate
Jacob deGrom – I’m not going to talk here, everyone knows to play deGOAT especially on just a six-game slate. The only thing I can add to deGrom is Starting Rotation has a new rule – two deGrom GIF’s to celebrate his starts.
This one is just absurd –
Joe Musgrove – It’s funny because the Mets are notorious for not scoring enough runs for deGrom and it may well continue tonight.
I grant you that is from April but the point stands. The Mets lineup continues to just be hurt all over the board and I’m not sure the current iteration is AAA-worthy. Musgrove is coming off a weird bullpen appearance but has full rest and still sports a 33.5% K rate, 2.08 ERA with a 2.64 xFIP, and a 14.1% swinging-strike rate. Both sides of the plate have a .260 wOBA or lower, and I’m not sure Musgrove should be priced under $9,000.
Kevin Gausman – He has the tougher spot than Musgrove but Gausman he’s legitimately performed like an ace all season and nobody seems to talk about it ever. The Giants righty is eighth in swinging-strike rate and seventh in CSW both going with a 30.9% K rate. I do slightly worry that the 1.40 ERA doesn’t totally match the 3.05 xFIP but not enough to totally pass on him. The Cubs whiff 25.1% of the time to righty hitting and Gausman has the third-ranked fastball and first-ranked splitter in the league. That is a nasty combo and they have all 83 of his strikeouts.
Alex Cobb – He has two starts since returning to the lineup and they’ve been quite good. Not only does Cobb control the left side of the plate with a .252 wOBA, a 2.84 xFIP, and a 27% K rate but Seattle is a top-eight K rate team to righty pitching. The Mariners normally have six lefties in their lineup and his splitter has a 36.3% whiff rate. Overall, the 3.78 ERA doesn’t make much sense with a 2.44 xFIP and he generates a 56.5% ground ball rate. Cobb has suffered through a .376 BABIP in his 33.1 IP so far, which is ridiculous. With a 12.9% swinging-strike rate in tow, Cobb is much better than some of the surface metrics would appear. This is from earlier in the season but you get the idea –
Starting Rotation 6.5 – Evening Slate Stacking Options
- Coors Field – All of it. The Rockies get a questionable lefty and the A’s get Kyle Freeland. So a team in the A’s offense that sits seventh in ISO against lefties in Coors and the most expensive righty is Matt Chapman at $4,700. Oakland was chalky last night and that will continue again. You can fit deGrom, Musgrove, and four Oakland hitters with over $3,300 left to build. I would expect that to be the bones of cash games. In honesty, you can build with deGrom and Musgrove, have a Coors stack, and even kick in a mini stack of the other team listed. It seems silly to deviate on a six-game slate.
- For Oakland, I’m looking at Mark Canha (with an underscore), Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder, Jed Lowrie, and Chapman.
- For Colorado, I have a strong interest in C.J. Cron, Yonathan Daza, Garrett Hampson, and Ryan McMahon.
- Red Sox Lefties against Jameson Taillon (Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo especially)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
