Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.4
Friday can be a very exciting night on the diamond because almost every team is in action and you would think we’d have strong pitching options all over. To quote the WWE Wrestler formerly known as Wade Barrett, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news! We do have a couple of great options but for the most part, pitching is not good tonight. Let’s talk about the challenge ahead of us in the Starting Rotation 6.4 and lay the foundation for the green screens tonight!
Starting Rotation 6.4
Max Scherzer
Given the slate context, Mad Max is sure to be the super chalk tonight and I can’t argue it. You lock him in for cash and don’t look back and it may even be the best path to just eat this in GPP. Scherzer whiffed 10 hitters last time out and currently sits at a 36.5% K rate which is over 5% higher than last season. The swinging-strike rate is 16.5% which is fourth and the CSW is 32.1%, good for ninth. All three of these marks are better than the 2020 campaign, along with the ERA, FIP, and xFIP. It’s a long way of saying Scherzer is just as dominant as ever and is drawing a Philly lineup that is seventh in K rate to righty pitching at 25.7%.
The Phillies will likely roll out seven righties in total and that means a heavy dose of the four-seam and slider. Those two have combined for 60 of 95 strikeouts, both pitches are under a .280 wOBA, and both boast a whiff rate over 33.8%. The right side of the plate has a 2.86 xFIP on top of everything else, so Scherzer is aging like a fine wine and checks every box we want for a smash play.
Julio Urias
It’s going to be a theme the rest of the way, but this spot isn’t totally ideal for Urias. He’s putting together what is pretty easily the best season of his career with a K rate over 28% and a walk are of 3.4%, well below the 7.8% rate he has on his career. His WHIP is 0.95 which is a huge jump over the career 1.18 rate, and the swinging-strike rate is 13.8%. Urias is also third in baseball in CSW at 33.6% while the Braves are eighth in K rate at 25.3% to lefty pitching. The fear here is Atlanta has started to come around to lefty pitching. They really scuffled in the first part of the season but are up to 12th in wOBA, 14th in wRC+, first in ISO, and 10th in OPS.
There’s no getting around those metrics being an issue here. However, Urias is wildly talented and it’s not like he’s getting smashed by righty hitters. Urias has only yielded a .286 wOBA, a 3.26 xFIP, and a 27% K rate. All of that has come with a .303 BABIP which won’t last all season. The four-seam and curve have 59 of 75 strikeouts and that curve only has a .143 wOBA against it. You’re taking this chance hoping Urias can overcome the spot, but there is not a lot of safety here. The salary is likely to keep the field a long way away from Urias tonight and in honesty, is insanely high.
Freddy Peralta
So, here’s a peek behind the curtain. If I’m not at work, I typically start writing before the slate posts on DK. It’s not hard to find probable pitchers so I can get rolling and still have some time at night. I wrote up Scherzer and Urias only to find that DK has done lost their minds with their pricing tonight for pitching. I believe this might be the worst-priced slate on the entire season. Guys are unplayable for the most part and Peralta isn’t even in the best spot, but he’s only the SP5 as far as salary. That alone gets him a mention here.
Now, to be fair, Peralta is second among qualified pitchers with a K rate of 37.2%. That’s awesome but comes with a strong caveat of he features major splits in his K rate depending on which side of the plate is hitting. Righties whiff 45.1% of the time while lefties are “only” at a 29.1% rate. Combine that with Arizona not being over 24% in K rate themselves and it’s not the best spot ever for Peralta. The xFIP to lefties is also 4.45 and righties are only at 2.26 which is a fear as well. Peralta has among the highest upsides of anyone on this slate, but the salary and the lefty-heavy lineup doesn’t lead me to believe he hits it.
A big part of the reason for the K rate to lefties being so much lower is he doesn’t use the slider to lefties very much. He’s thrown 302 total this season and only 78 have been used o lefties. The changeup is at 77 and only has two strikeouts total. Not only that, the changeup features the highest wOBA at .292 and the highest average against at .231. What is super weird is it also has a 35% whiff rate, but it’s just not putting anyone away. On most slates, I might just pass over Peralta.
Shohei Ohtani
The results weren’t overwhelmingly great for Ohtani, but the velocity was mostly back for him. His four-seam sat around 94 MPH and the splitter was 86.8 MPH on average. Both were still a little lower than the seasonal average of 95.6 and 88.2, but it was improved at the very least. The walk rate can still be hard to live with at 16.9% but at least he does have a 32.5% K rate to go with it. The WHIP is understandably high at 1.24 with all the walks but Ohtani has a 49.3% ground ball rate and a 13.7% swinging-strike rate. The splitter is still evil with just two hits and 34 strikeouts to go with the 60.3% whiff rate and a minuscule .072 wOBA.
All this sounds pretty good but just like every pitcher on the slate, there is a catch. The quality of the lefties for Seattle can be argued, but they typically have 5-6 in their lineup. That has been the side that gives Ohtani the most trouble with a 25.6% K rate to a 19.8% walk rate and a 4.99 xFIP. Seattle is 10th in K rate at 25.5% so that gives you hope, but with the velocity still down a tick and Ohtani’s issues with the left side of the plate, this isn’t the slam dunk it may appear on paper. I still strongly suspect the Scherzer/Ohtani pair will be the cash pair on the night.
Honorable Mention (Yes, I am only writing up these few pitchers. That’s how bad this slate is.)
Zack Wheeler – If you don’t particularly trust Peralta, find the $300 for Wheeler. He’s absolutely on a roll with three straight starts over 32 DK but he’s been very inconsistent game to game before this run. The issue becomes trying to squeeze in a very expensive Scherzer with any other expensive pitcher. That’s why Ohtani likely is super popular.
Blake Snell – I will have absolutely no shares of a pitcher that has cleared five innings just once. I do not care the Mets lineup is not good right now. Every slate, Snell gets some love and he hasn’t been nearly good enough to justify this salary.
Cody Poteet – He has a good matchup but I can’t help but worry about the 2.95 ERA being far lower than the xFIP that is pushing 5.00.
Starting Rotation 6.4 Stacking Options
- Angels against Robert Dugger (Jared Walsh, Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton, Taylor Ward, Jose Iglesias)
- Orioles against Eli Morgan/J.C. Mejia (Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins, D.J. Stewart, Anthony Santander)
- Padres against Joey Lucchesi (Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers, Tommy Pham)
- Cardinals against Luis Castillo (Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neil, Dylan Carlson, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman)
- Coors Field
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