Brian Tulloch Starting Rotation 6.3
We have another eight-game slate tonight and once again the pricing is making life difficult. It seems to be a recurring theme lately that we have one nailed on ace at the top of the salary ladder that will attract major attention. Past that, things get a little dicey with salaries involved so let’s get to work in the Starting Rotation 6.3 and find the green screens!
Starting Rotation 6.3 – Main Targets
Yu Darvish
With the Mets still hampered in their lineup and missing four starters, it’s hard not to slot in Darvish and just get different elsewhere. Over the past two weeks, New York has been striking out over 25% of the time and is below average in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP. On the Darvish side, there is room for some small regression since the ERA is 2.16 and the xFIP is 3.82. Against a better offense, I may be slightly more concerned but Darvish is also sporting a 30% K rate, 12% swinging-strike rate, and a 31.5%. Darvish throws all sorts of pitches but seeing New York rank next-to-last against the cutter brings us some comfort as well.
It’s also easy to like Darvish because there isn’t really a sharp difference in his splits. Both sides of the plate are under a .275 wOBA, neither side hits over .210, and the WHIP doesn’t get higher than 1.01. Now, the K rate is different as righties whiff 33.6% of the time compared to 26.5% for lefties, but that’s nothing to get hung up on here. The Mets are still rolling out a questionable lineup and that’s if Jonathan Villar plays, as he is day to day on Wednesday night.
Lance Lynn
We’ve been talking about this a good deal lately, but Detroit has not been hitting like the pushover they have been most of the season lately. They are 13th in wOBA and 14th in OPS over the past two weeks with a K rate under 25%. That’s something we use when it’s a shaky pitcher on the mound but Lance Lynn is not in the category that I worry about. Lynn is such an aberration with his fastball approach with almost nothing off-speed. Then again, when the pitches can do this perhaps off-speed is overrated –
The four-seam has a 35.7% whiff rate while the cutter is at 23.8%. Neither pitch has given up a wOBA over .221 and Lynn has only yielded four home runs total.
The K rate of 26.9% overall is very strong and the 12.5% swinging-strike rate matches his career-high at this point. With Detroit being a predominantly lefty lineup, it is super encouraging to see Lynn have a .217 wOBA and 0.92 WHIP to the left side of the plate. We do have to say that the K rate comes down to 21.9% but make no mistake, Detroit is still a heavy strikeout lineup. You can feel great about Lynn throwing at least 95+ pitches almost every single time out and he’s worth the salary tonight.
Tyler Anderson
If we’re just looking at game logs, we would think the bloom was coming off the rose for Anderson the past three starts. Perhaps that’s true but those matchups were quite difficult. This stands out as a bounce-back spot and he’s shown upside in spots with scores of 27 and 22.3 on the season. We just saw Robbie Ray carve up this Marlins lineup and while they’re not the same pitcher, Miami has a weakness to lefties. They are 22nd in wRC+, 21st in wOBA, 20th in OPS, and strike out 28.2% of the time. Anderson features a 23.3% K rate and his 4.63 ERA is a bit higher than the 4.14 xFIP. It will be strength against strength because the Marlins hit the cutter well while Anderson allows the lowest average and wOBA against it of his main pitches. The four-seam has 27 of 55 strikeouts so far.
It would appear that Anderson has a weakness to righties with a 1.90 HR/9 but the xFIP is under 4.00 and the strand rate is 65.2%. Those rates tell us there’s been a little bit of bad luck and it’s also a good time to note that seven of the 10 home runs he’s given up have come in the past three starts. The K rate pops up just a little bit to righties at 25.4% and Miami is projected for five and the pitcher spot.
Casey Mize
The pitch data is brutal on paper and it’s not like we set out with the idea to target the White Sox, but DK will simply not move Mize’s price even after three straight 20+ DK point games. The strikeouts have started to flow with 20 over the last three starts and that’s very notable when Mize only has 47 on the season. The slider was a key the last time out and it has been arguably the best pitch he throws. It has the best wOBA at .236 and a 29.9% whiff rate while only giving up one home run.
To Mize’s credit, he generates ground balls at a 51.2% rate which would rank inside the top 10 if he qualified. Chicago still leads the way in ground ball rate to righty pitching at over 50%.
Now, you can argue that ground balls aren’t what we want in DFS and generally, you’d be correct. The strikeout is king but Mize is still under $7,000! If he only whiffs four or five but goes five, maybe six innings with one or two runs given up he’ll be totally fine at this salary. Mize should face five righties and he’s held them to a .268 wOBA and a 21.5% K rate. The lefties are a small concern with a .328 wOBA but only Yan Moncada has a wOBA over .335 against righty pitching this season. I wouldn’t touch him in cash but Mize checks the boxes for a GPP play.
Honorable Mention
Adam Wainwright – I personally can’t stomach Waino at this salary but he is at home at least and not in Cincinnati.
Griffin Canning – Another pitcher whose price is sky high but he gets the Mariners and has a 25.8% K rate and the 5.40 ERA doesn’t match the 4.17 xFIP.
Starting Rotation 6.3 Stacking Options
- Royals against J.A. Happ (Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez, Michael A. Taylor)
- Brewers against Seth Frankoff (Willy Adames, Omar Narvaez, Kolten Wong, Avisail Garcia, Christian Yelich)
- Giants against Zach Davies (Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski, Buster Posey, Steven Duggar – Keep an eye on the lineup, they are banged up)
- D-Backs against Brett Anderson (Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Carson Kelly, Nick Ahmed, Josh Rojas)
- Angels against Justus Sheffield (Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Jose Rojas, Phil Gosselin)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
