Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 6.2
We have an eight-game main slate tonight and there are some strong pitching options again. Much like the past couple of days, I will be very focused on a core group of 4-5 pitchers. There is one clear ace but we have some chances to get ace-level production at some different salaries so let’s get to work in the Starting Rotation 6.2!
Starting Rotation 6.2 – Main Targets
Walker Buehler
This slate is pretty interesting because Buehler is the lone “ace” that we typically trust and will flock towards playing. It’s easy to see what even though he only had three strikeouts in the last game. If there is something to pick at, the K rate is it. Typically at this salary range, we need a large K rate and Buehler is only sitting at 25.3% which would be the lowest rate of his career thus far. The WHIP is only 0.90 which would be the best mark for him but he does tend to get hit harder than we like at 36.8%. The good news for Buehler is the Cards are very poor against his two main pitches and that could make or break this matchup.
St. Louis has come down in K rate to righties to 22.8% which is not a big number at all. However, the four-seam has been great with 35 of 62 strikeouts. It has also yielded only a .251 wOBA and has a 24.5% whiff rate. The other great news for Buehler is the normal Cardinal lineups have six righty hitters and the pitcher spot. To that side of the plate, Buehler has held them to a .217 wOBA, 28% K rate, and just a 3.04 xFIP. Now, I’m not telling you to not play Buehler tonight but I feel strongly that we have other paths and we don’t have to pay up here.
Sean Manaea
The price is high but the spot is truly excellent for Manaea. Seattle is sixth in K rate at 27.4% and that means Manaea can take advantage of his 24.2% rate. The barrel rate is barely over 6% and the fly ball rate is right at 36% while the Mariners are 28th in hard-hit rate against lefty pitching. It makes sense why Seattle is 25th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ on the season. It’s really nice to see Manaea getting a 12.1% swinging-strike rate since that’s the highest of his career and he’s seen a 4% drop in his contact rate on all pitches. The change and the curve have both see spikes of 10% in whiff rate from 2020, so it’s not hard to see why the K rate and swinging-strike rate have improved so much.
What is fascinating is the Mariner lineup is still projected for five lefties in this game and if that happens, it’s a huge advantage for Manaea. He’s faced 62 this year and held them to a .214 wOBA, a .499 OPS, a 2.10 xFIP, and has struck them out at a 38.7% rate. The Mariners lineup is important for him because it can make a difference in his upside. It’s not that he’s been terrible to righties but they do have just a 19.6% K rate, a .354 wOBA, and a 4.22 xFIP. I’ll be deciding on Manaea after that lineup comes out.
Jordan Montgomery
Perhaps the biggest boom or bust spot on the slate is the Rays offense against Jordan Montgomery. Let’s start with the Rays side of the equation. Brian has been the Rays whisperer, but he has been consistent in saying boom or bust because that’s what the Tampa offense is for sure. Against lefty pitching, it becomes even more apparent. They have hitters that have track records of hitting lefties well but it has not happened much this season. They rank 25th in OBP, 23rd in slugging, 24th in OPS, and 18th in ISO. The surprising part is they’re also eighth in wOBA but 20th in wRC+ and strikeout 30.8%, just 0.2% away from leading the league. They are a mixed bag, to say the least.
For Montgomery, he’s also a roller coaster ride. The last four starts have resulted in scores of 2.3, 34.8, -0.1, and 31.7. He has a good enough K rate at 24.7% and a solid enough ground ball rate at 40%, but the risk is certainly there. The Rays will typically roll out six righties and that would lead us to think there is a danger for Montgomery. He’s only generated a 21.8% K rate and a 4.24 xFIP to go with the wOBA of .332. Only one batter in the projected lineup is below a 25% K rate to combo Montgomery, so the odds are this battle tilts to one side significantly. With the upside Montgomery has shown, he is well worth a look in GPP ONLY.
Alek Manoah
I’m not sure Manoah could have been more impressive in his first start in Yankee Stadium. If you have a few minutes, check out this article from the awesome Nick Pollack that digs into every pitch –
He went six strong innings with seven strikeouts and only two hits allowed. Perhaps the most important facets were the Jays letting him throw 88 pitches and he threw his entire arsenal. We see during debut games that pitchers don’t always throw everything they have and go very fastball-heavy. That was not an issue at all with Manoah with everything on display. He generated an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and had a 31.8% K rate overall. The four-seam averaged right around 95 MPH and featured a 42.9% whiff rate. His off-speed stuff is also capable of this –
Miami is striking out over 26% of the time and sits 29th in ISO, 25th in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+. While there is still always risk associated with young pitchers like Manoah, he’s walking into a much better spot than the previous game and I believe the price is more than fair for his potential here. Playing him at a $2,000 savings over Buehler could unlock quite a bit.
Shane McClanahan
It would be really nice if the Rays would let him throw more than 80 pitches, and that has to be noted with McClanahan. Regardless of how good he is going, the clock is ticking on him in a big way as far as staying in the game. At the same time, he still can pay off this price on limited pitches as he just demonstrated against the Royals, racking up six strikeouts in five innings and 63 pitches. The 29.6% K rate is well worth playing since the walk rate is only 6.5% and the swinging-strike rate is an absurd 17.7% to go with a 34.4% CSW. For context on those last two metrics, McClanahan would rank second and third if he qualified. It’s not remotely a surprise when you see him throw pitches like this –
New York isn’t a massive strikeout team at 23.7% to lefties but the youngster has been better to righty hitters so far. They only have a .264 wOBA, .198 average, 2.75 xFIP, and a 31% K rate. We’ve continued to see the Yankees struggle and the Manoah/McClanahan combo could combine for 12-15 strikeouts and gives us a path to be different.
Starting Rotation 6.2 Stacking Options
- Coors Field – Both teams will be more popular than yesterday as the pitching is far worse on paper. For the Rockies, we’re looking at CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon, and the bottom of the lineup for salary savings (Brendan Rodgers, etc…). On the other side, Texas hitters are Willie Calhoun, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Nate Lowe.
- Braves against Jon Lester (Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, William Contreras)
- Nationals against Drew Smyly (Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Harrison, Juan Soto, Yan Gomes)
- Orioles against Randy Dobnak (Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, D.J. Stewart, Freddy Galvis)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
