Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.28
It’s Friday night and we have plenty of games to choose from, but it doesn’t look like we’re going to have an overwhelming amount of choices. We do have a repeat from yesterday and we have one of the best pitchers in baseball, so let’s get rolling in the Starting Rotation 5.28!
Starting Rotation 5.28 – Main Targets
Gerrit Cole
I’m hard-pressed to think of any reason why Cole won’t be the overwhelming chalk in cash and hovering at 50% or higher in GPP. This is one of the better spots he could ask for and there isn’t another pitcher with the same style of upside tonight. The last time he saw this lineup he posted 12 strikeouts for 39.1 DK points and it’s not hard to see why.
Cole sits third in K rate, eighth in swinging-strike rate, and second in CSW on the season. That comes with a 1.71 FlIP, 2.23 xFIP, and a 1.81 ERA. We’re early on in the season, but he has the be the favorite for the AL Cy Young at this juncture. With Detroit still flirting with leading the majors in K rate to righties, this is a lock and load situation.
Walker Buehler
I still don’t believe that Buehler will outscore Cole, but there’s every chance he gets close. He’s been on a roll with at least 20 DK points in the last four games and the last two spots wouldn’t have looked great on paper. He’s worse to lefties with a .308 wOBA, a 1.42 HR/9, and a 23.1% K rate. Even still, he walked right through the Arizona and San Francisco lineups that are loaded with lefties. Every single one of his pitches has a whiff rate over 26.5% this season and only the cutter has a wOBA over .276. The good news for Buehler is he’s only thrown the cutter to lefties 67 times on the year, so the Giants being the best cutter time isn’t a large concern.
Overall, the FIP/xFIP combo is solid at 3.35 and 3.29 but you can see why Coles is a much better play on paper. Buehler also only has a 26.6% K rate, which is right around 10% lower than Cole. One aspect that is helping Buehler is the first strike rate is 8% higher than 2020 at 66.7%. I like Buehler overall but would plan on being far more invested in Cole.
Hyun Jin Ryu
Ryu is sort of a Steady Eddie type of pitcher at this point but the matchup vaults him into higher consideration. Cleveland has already been no-hit twice and they have not been able to hit lefties thus far. They rank 25th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA, OPS, and 23rd in slugging. The K rate is only 22.2% and Ryu is down from 2020 but 24.6% is nothing poor, especially at this salary. The hard-hit rate is only 22.9% and Ryu has a 30% CSW, which is still top 30 in the league.
The wOBA to righties is over .300 but the BABIP is .297, a touch high and the xFIP is only 3.31. My one fear is the K rate is only 21.3% and that is low but Cleveland has been such a poor offense, I can’t ignore Ryu in this game. He has a 20 point upside at a very playable salary.
Shohei Ohtani
Note – Due to *checks notes* ….transportation issues, Ohtani will start tonight instead. Everything is the exact same.
Normally, Ohtani is a building block on any slate for me but I think we need to have some caution here. While the Angels insisted there were no injury concerns, Ohtani’s velocity was down in his last start by 3-6 MPH. That is a huge drop and effectively took the four-seam out of the mix. He threw it 40 times but it was not nearly as efficient and he threw his cutter 32% of the time, knowing the fastball wasn’t there for him. If his four-seam/splitter combo is down 5-6 MPH, Ohtani is not going to be that great of a pitcher.
Even with the struggles last game, the splitter still only has two hits given up and a 58.2% whiff rate with a .084 wOBA. Oakland’s lineup typically features five righties and that should help Ohtani as well. The right side of the plate only has a .200 wOBA, .401 OPS, and a massive 44.8% K rate. If Ohtani is right, I would absolutely love him here since Oakland is over 24% in K rate to righty pitching. There is a significant risk because there is no way to know where the velocity sits before the game starts.
Casey Mize
I don’t blame you if you don’t want to take this risk, but I’m still interested in the way Mize has been pitching over his last handful of starts. He’s cleared 21 in his past two and now has three straight over 17 DK which is great to see from the young man. The K rate is still not special at 18.7% but he’s racked up 17 over the past 20 IP pitched so he’s getting there. We’ve seen repeatedly this season that New York can struggle with righty pitching. They are top 10 in K rate at 25.1%, 22nd in slugging, 16th in OPS, 17th in ISO, and 14th in both wOBA and wRC+.
I’m not going to sit here and pretend this is a sure-fire play. The FIP and xFIP are both over 4.40 while the ERA is 3.42, so things could go south. New York is projected to play seven righty hitters and that would be the best scenario for Mize. He’s held RHH to a .279 wOBA, 0.99 WHIP, and the 18.4% K rate. The price and pedigree make sense to take some chances in GPP tonight.
Honorable Mention – Ian Anderson, Sean Manaea
Starting Rotation 5.28 Stacking Options
- White Sox against Matt Harvey (Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Yermin Mercedes)
- Twins against Kris Bubic (Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Garlick, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco)
- Nationals against Brett Anderson (Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Josh Harrison, Yan Gomes, Ryan Zimmerman)
- Brewers against Jon Lester (Avisail Garcia, Manny Pina, Willy Adames, Lorenzo Cain, Keston Hiura)
- Rangers against Justus Sheffield (Adolis Garcia, Nick Solak, Charlie Culberson, Khris Davis)
- Red Sox against Cody Potent (J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez)
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
