Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.17
Monday is a bit of a smaller slate and the good news is we have one absolutely stud to play! The sort of bad news is the rest of the cast is a little bit dicey, outside of a few options. Baseball is a highly variant sport but the options for Starting Rotation 5.17 look very clear cut, so let’s get to work and lay the foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 5.17 – Main Targets
Gerrit Cole
We’re not going to spend a ton of time here because Cole will be the stone chalk tonight and I’m not here to say differently. He’s been among the best three pitchers on the season with the second-best K rate (40.8%) among qualified starters and the best walk rate (1.6%). The FIP/xFIP is 1.13/1.96 while the ERA is 1.37 and he’s cut the HR/9 from 1.73 in 2020 to 0.51 this season. The 15.8% swinging-strike rate is sixth and Texas is a top-three K rate team to righties. Cole also has both sides of the plate under a .220 wOBA and all four pitches are generating at least a 29.8% whiff rate, with no higher than a .244 wOBA given up.
Even with Walker Buehler and Yu Darvish on the slate, Cole is not pricey enough and the other two are averaging 10-12 fewer DK points per game. If the averages hold up, it’s going to be tough to make up the ground at what is sure to be chalk. I believe the best path is going to be to eat the chalk and find our differences elsewhere, be it with the other starting pitcher or our bats.
Yu Darvish
If there’s a spot that could match the potential for Cole at far less popularity, Darvish could be that guy. He gets the Rockies on the road in their first game outside of Coors, and typically that’s an advantage to the pitcher. Additionally, Colorado is 29th or 30th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the road to righty pitching. They do only whiff 23.1% of the time but Darvish is sitting at a 31.2% K rate himself. The swinging-strike rate is down 2.5% from last year to 11.8% but the CSW has only dropped 1.4% to 32.2%.
Both sides of the plate are under .285 and only lefties give him a slight bit of an issue at a 1.35 HR/9. The good news for Darvish is the lefties in the Rockies lineup aren’t exactly the most intimidating. None have a wOBA over .360 and only Ryan McMahon has an ISO over .150. They should have four righties and the pitcher’s spot and with Darvish sporting a 36.6% K rate to that side of the plate, we can build a path for nearly 30 DK points. Having said that, I do believe Cole is the better play.
Madison Bumgarner
We said we would need a difference maker and the way MadBum is pitching, he is a candidate in a spot that I would think he won’t be popular. The perception (and likely reality by the end of the year) is the Dodgers are elite against lefty pitching. That’s not been the case so far with a ranking of 23rd in average, 25th in slugging, 22nd in OPS, 26th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. That’s all coming with a 25.2% K rate which is ninth-worst in the league. After a couple of bad starts, MadBum has found his velocity and turned back the clock to Vintage Bumgarner. Suddenly, the K rate is 27.5% which is his highest rate since 2016. The same could be said for his swinging-strike rate of 12.5% and that’s the best mark since 2015.
The cutter/four-seam mix is both up nearly 3 MPH so far and has 27 of 47 strikeouts so far. The best part is that’s also helped the curveball jump from a 23% whiff rate o a 41% mark this season. The wOBA on every pitch is down significantly and both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA. The top of the Dodgers lineup is ever-dangerous, but with the loss of Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager, the lineup as a whole is not as whole as it will normally be. Much like we’ve started to use lefties against Atlanta, we can take a calculated risk with MadBum tonight.
Yusei Kikuchi
I would be very surprised if the Cole/Kikuchi pairing isn’t the most popular on the evening and honestly, it should be. Kikuchi gets the Flow Chart start as a lefty against the Tigers, and he’s enjoying his best season in the majors thus far. The 4.30 ERA is a bit higher than the 3.25 xFIP but it would still be the first time Kikuchi hasn’t had an ERA over 5.00. The K rate is 25.6% and the walk rate is down to 7.4% and while the HR/9 is 1.43, the HR/FB rate is 22.6% and that’s a little absurd. Kikuchi has generated a 51.7% ground ball rate and a hard-hit rate of just 27.4%, which is a great combo. Hitters are swinging and missing at a career-best 13.3% rate, while the CSW has followed to 31.1%.
The .320 wOBA to righties isn’t spectacular, but he’s been bit by the home run ball from that side more than he would deserve. The strikeouts are evenly distributed across his three main pitches at 11, 13, and 13 while the four-seam/slider combo both have a whiff rate over 34%. In case you need a reminder, Detroit is still leading K rate to lefties at almost 34% and are dead last in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. With Kikuchi rolling up at least 20 DK points in three straight starts, I’m happy to eat the (probable) chalk in cash games especially.
Casey Mize
We’ve harped on finding a difference-maker after Cole and Casey Mize could be that style of play in GPP only. He could unlock Cole + a big money stack like the White Sox or Yankees. Mize is still a scary pitcher to use as the metrics aren’t exactly comforting. The K rate overall is under 17% but the Mariners are a top 10 K rate team to righty pitching. His ground ball rate is helpful at 52.2% and that could help dampen Seattle leading in fly ball rate at 41.1%. His best two pitches so far are the four-seam/slider combo and they have 24 of 27 strikeouts. Given the slider is new this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if it has taken time to get it right during actual gameplay. It has the lowest wOBA of any pitch at .250 and a 26.1% whiff rate.
Honestly, I was hoping the slider was a key to his three best starts but that was not to be. He used a different secondary pitch every start but that could actually be a good sign. Mize and the Detroit staff are adjusting in-game and having Mize throw whatever pitch is working best with the four-seam on that given night. He has thrown 24 innings on the road with just a 3.38 ERA so that helps slightly. The bottom line is this is banking on the talent and matchup. It hasn’t hit on all cylinders for Mize yet, not even close. He also just turned 24 and has had a K rate over 20% at every minor league stop. On a slate that doesn’t offer a ton of cheaper options, you can hope for the 15-18 DK in a strong matchup but understand the risk is a negative DK score.
Starting Rotation 5.17 – In Play
Walker Buehler – At least on paper, this really isn’t the spot to chase Buehler and his upside. He’s throwing the four-seam 51% of the time and while it has generated 27 stakeouts so far, it’s also given up four home runs. Arizona is third against the fastball this season and they could throw seven lefties in their lineup tonight. If the splits hold up for Buehler, that would be an issue. They have gotten him for a .333 wOBA, 2.08 HR/9, and the K rate falls under 25%. When you’re spending that salary, you need to have a route to match or exceed Cole’s upside. I believe that’s going to be very tough for Buehler, but he is so talented that I will not put him out of play.
Adbert Alzolay – I might actually prefer playing Alzolay at his salary than Buehler. Barely 26 years old, Alzolay has shown some serious upside in the strikeout department at a 29.3% K rate. That would sit around the top 12 if he qualified and he will typically face five righties and the pitcher spot if the Nationals play their typical lineup. With a .197 wOBA to righties, a 2.64 xFIP, and a 36.2% K rate, we want to focus on righty-heavy lineups when playing Alzolay. Washington is not a huge strikeout team at just 21.8% but Alzolay has seen such a major shift in his mix, this could still be a spot to use him. He’s upped the slider usage from 6.7% last year to 46.3%, and it has 25 of 36 strikeouts. The slider also has generated a 41.6% whiff rate and the Nationals are 12th against it, but still in the negatives as a team. None of the lefties in the Nets lineup has a wOBA over Kyle Schwarber’s .347, although Juan Soto will surely get there. Still, this spot is pretty solid for Azlolay.
Jon Gray – He’s a pitcher I can struggle with sometimes because I don’t think he has any specific metric that we can anchor to and be happy with. Gray is pitching well, but there is a general sense of him being “just a guy”. We can definitely talk about Gray throwing his slider a lot more this year, up almost 8% from 2020. It’s been his go-to strikeout pitch with 27 of his 44 strikeouts overall and it boasts a 41.7% whiff rate. All three of the main pitches sit at a .295 wOBA given up or less, which is a nice metric to have. Gray’s K rate is only 22.9% and the Padres still are bottom-three in K rate to righties, so this doesn’t scream as an upside spot for strikeouts. With a 53.7% ground ball rate and the Friars still without Fernando Tatis, they can still be targeted.
Starting Rotation 5.17 – Out of Play
Taijuan Walker – Is this a little harsh? Possibly, since Walker has been solid this year. If he was less expensive, I’d be more willing to take a chance on him but over $9,000 is a lot for a pitcher that has a 23.9% K rate and an 11% walk rate. The xFIP is somewhat concerning at 4.12 since the ERA is 2.20, meaning there is some regression coming. Walker does have the pitch mix working for him, with a four-seam/slider mix as his main two and they both have a wOBA under .200 and a whiff rate of at least 25%. Atlanta is 17th and 20th against those pitches, which does help. It should also help Walker that Atlanta should be righty-heavy and he’s posted a .217 wOBA to that side of the plate. The issue is really the case and I’m not interested in paying this salary.
Max Fried – I’m leaving him out of play tonight as the K rate has yet to hit 23% and the Mets are not a heavy strikeout team at just 23.2%. They are also second in OBP so if Fried is not striking anyone out, he has some very limited ceiling as far as DK points. Now, he is very certainly better than the 6.55 ERA and the 4.22 xFIP tells us that loud and clear. It’s been a tough start so the numbers are skewed a bit but he doesn’t have a pitch that’s giving up less than a .363 wOBA right now. Since New York is above average in wOBA and wRC+, this just isn’t a spot I’m interested in with a pitcher like Kikuchi $500 more.
J.A. Happ – He got absolutely blistered by this same White Sox offense last time and at least now the 4.26 ERA is closer to the 5.52 xFIP. We pointed out the last time that his K rate was under 15% and that would come back to haunt him. It did last time and will again. Every pitch he throws continues to have a whiff rate of 20.3% or less, and RHH has a .333 wOBA and 5.81 xFIP against him.
Jon Lester – It’s Picks and Pivots time, boys and girls!
Sam Hentges – I’ll continue to say the Angels may not be as fearsome against lefties as some may think, but Hentges doesn’t strike me as the player to continue to test the theory. The FIP is 6.19 and you can’t have a 1.76 WHIP with a 97.8% strand rate. They just aren’t compatible. His hard-hit rate given up is 37.2% and the fly-ball rate is almost 42%, also not great. Hentges has only thrown 13.2 innings, but the zone rate of 35.3% is dreadful and hitters are making contact with 96.5% of swings at pitches inside the strike zone. With righties sporting a .450 wOBA (yes, it has come on a .370 BABIP) and an 8.01 FIP, I don’t see the need to take this chance.
Dallas Keuchel – To paraphrase Will Ferrell from StepBrothers – I’ll never play Dallas Keuchel…not even if there’s a fire!
Seriously though, you can’t play him. His ceiling is 12-14 DK points and we’re not that desperate.
Jordan Lyles – Righties have roughed him up this year for a .392 wOBA, 2.66 HR/9, and his fly ball rate is 46.2% with a 40.8% hard-hit rate. All of that is quite bad when facing a Yankees lineup, especially when you possess a K rate under 21%.
Patrick Sandoval – I honestly had thoughts of putting Sandoval in play. That’s how poor this Cleveland offense has been through some points of the year. I can’t quite pull the trigger as Sandoval hasn’t thrown more than 52 pitches in his three appearances. The walk rate is over 15% and the HR/9 is 3.68, although the HR/FB rate is also over 42%. Still, the issue is with a limited pitch count, even a couple of walks can be a disaster. Cleveland is eighth in walk rate against lefties and only whiff 20.8% so it’s just not enough upside to take a risk.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
