Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.16
We get a tidy 10 game slate for our Sunday afternoon MLB slate and it appears like there are some solid options today. The big names might not be on this slate but we have some truly good options at solid price points. Frankly, it’s a bit more fun when we don’t have an ace like Trevor Bauer last night and he’s 80% owned in cash and almost 60% in GPP. Let’s talk about who we like on this slate in the Starting Rotation 5.16 and lay our foundation for the green screens!
Starting Rotation 5.16 – Main Targets
Alex Wood
When we’re deciding between Wood and the next pitcher on our target list, I don’t believe it’s much of a contest. Wood has cleared 27 DK points in three of his five starts, 20 in the fourth, and then had one start at Coors. He’s been utterly dominant so far this season with a 25.9% K rate, 13.1% swinging-strike rate, and a 33.6% CSW. The CSW would be sixth in the majors if he qualified at this point, and his barrel rate is 2.7%. When hitters are getting the ball in play, Wood has a 63.9% ground ball rate which also would lead the league.
I’m not sure the Pirates have more than 4-5 major league quality hitters on their roster right now. They whiff at a 25.2% rate to lefty pitching and rank no better than 26th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, or wRC+ this year. Wood will likely face eight righties including the pitcher spot and that side of the plate has a .199 wOBA, .430 OPS, and a 30.6% K rate. Both the slider and the changeup have wOBA’s allowed under .155 and the slider has gotten a 45.1% whiff rate so far this season. Go figure when it looks like this –
It’s also accounted for 24 of 29 strikeouts and the best slider hitter for the Bucs is Colin Moran. He’s on the IL and without his rating, Pittsburgh would be ranked in the high 20’s against that pitch. If Wood flops in this spot, it would be a major disappointment.
Lance McCullers
I’m not quite sure how to gauge McCullers today as far as popularity. With Wood in the easier matchup and $200 cheaper, I would have to think the field jumps down there and leaves McCullers alone, somewhat. There hasn’t been a ton to pick on for him this year, as his 3.10 ERA is matched by a 3.85/3.63 FIP/xFIP combo. The walk rate isn’t terribly fun to deal with at 12.1% but the K rate of 28.5% tells you the upside is there. McCullers is generating a 57.4% ground ball rate and a 32.1% CSW, both of which are appealing qualities with pitchers in this salary. His best pitch by the wOBA given up is his curve, which is at .199 and sports a 38.7% whiff rate. That’s the highest among his main three pitches and he uses it almost exclusively to lefties. The fact Texas is a bottom-four team to that pitch is exciting.
His splits are well-suited to a Texas lineup that is balanced, as the wOBA is between .261 and .264 to either side. His K rate is also within 2% regardless of which side and part of that is the slider he throws to righties is generating a 35.8% whiff rate of its own. Adolis Garcia and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are concerns on that side as they rank first and ninth against sliders this year, but McCullers has given up two singles in 15 BBE and 164 total sliders. Texas strikes out at a top-two rate to righties so if there’s a huge gap in popularity between him and Wood, there probably shouldn’t be.
Huascar Ynoa
My plan as of Saturday night is to play Wood and Ynoa together today in cash, as I think they are in the clear best spots on the entire slate and Ynoa might be a smidge under-priced. He’s burst onto the scene after tasting the majors last year with 21.2 forgettable innings pitched. This year has seen things click a lot better for him with a 28.4% K rate, 13% swinging-strike rate, and a 32% CSW. He did all of that while cutting the walk rate from 13% to 5.8% and lowering the hard contact from 36.8% to 30.7%. The pitch mix stayed stagnant, and the slider (which is the eighth-ranked slider in baseball) was good last year, so what changed? Ynoa is throwing his four-seam about 2 MPH faster this year.
In 2020, his four-seam got beat up for a .402 wOBA, .500 slugging, and an 11% whiff rate. This year’s version is up to 96 MPH and can get higher and while the whiff rate is still just 17.8%, the wOBA has come down to .308 and the slug is .462. Those incremental changes have been enough to help bump his performance, and with the Brewers ranking dead last against the slider and whiffing 26.6% of the time to righty pitching, the spot is exceptional for him. The .333 wOBA to righties looks worrisome, but he’s suffering from a 30% HR/FB rate to that side of the plate. That’s very elevated and will normalize, and the 3.30 xFIP to RHH agrees. On top of that, Milwaukee’s projected lineup only has three righties anyway.
Robbie Ray
I’m only listing four main targets today because I am in love with these spots and in transparency, I will not play anyone other than these four players. I will of course say who’s “In Play” shortly, but I will only have exposure to four pitchers on this slate and plant the flag. Anyways, what in the world does Ray have to do to get a bump in salary?? This man has reeled off four straight games scoring over 21 DK points and his salary went down $600. OK? I would have been interested in general principle, but this spot looks incredible by the metrics we trust.
First, let’s talk about the changes for Ray this year. He’s spiked the four-seam usage to 59.4% from 47.3% in 2020. That’s left his slider and curve under 20% each and the four-seam has been carrying the water for him with a 23.9% whiff rate, 27 of 39 strikeouts, and just a .309 wOBA. That’s way down from the .474 mark it had against it last year. Teams haven’t done much damage to the curve with a .302 wOBA (.522 last season) and his whiff rate on that pitch jumped from 46.3% to 52.3%. The four-seam has given up five home runs, but the trade-off for Ray has been well worth it.
In large part, because he’s just throwing fastballs that have jumped 2 MPH in velocity up there with abandon, his zone rate went from 42.6% to 56.7%. That measure how many pitches are inside the strike zone and a 14% jump is enormous. The swing rate has gone from 40.7% to 51.3%, the swinging-strike rate is at 15%, and the overall K rate is better than 2020 at 28.1% coupled with the lowest walk rate of his career, 7.2%. Ray has even managed to throw a ton more first-pitch strikes at 66.9%. His career-best mark previous to this year is 60.7% and he hasn’t been over 60% in any other season but that one. His new efficiency has allowed him to pitch at least six innings in every start but two and he’s never thrown fewer than five.
*takes a breath*
I get that I just threw a lot of numbers at you, more than maybe is normal just for one pitcher. That’s how dramatic the change has been for Ray. He’s been in the league since 2014 and didn’t add a different pitch. All he did was change his approach and gain a little bit of velocity. Even though the HR/9 is 2.08, his 3.38 ERA is sustained by the 3.46 xFIP. Philly is a bottom-five team to fastballs this year, and they’re not burning the world down against his secondary pitches either. Be prepared for a home run or two allowed, but Philly has the third-highest K rate to lefty pitching on the season at 29.5%. Lastly, they are only 22nd in ISO. Ray is very underpriced and can flirt with 22-25 DK points yet again now that he’s evolved into (so far) the best version of himself.
Starting Rotation 5.16 – In-Play
Freddie Peralta – Jus like he is every slate, Peralta is well in play and is honestly moving towards the category that we can trust. Peralta is third in the league with a 39.2% K rate and you simply can’t ignore that. He leans on the four-seam/slider mix and both pitches have a whiff rate over 32%. Atlanta is ranked 18th and 23rd against those pitches and should only have three lefties in the lineup. Rolling out five righties and the pitcher spot against Peralta would be the best-case for him, as righties have a .225 wOBA and strike out 48.2% of the time. The FIP and xFIP to that side are both under 2.00 and even though Atlanta is a dangerous spot, Peralta has handled tough offenses multiple times this season. I doubt we need him in cash with Wood and Peralta, but he could make for a dynamite GPP option if we get him at around 10% or less.
Marcus Stroman – I’ll have some issues getting there, as the three pitchers above him in salary are all at least 8% ahead of Stroman in K rate. Tampa is seventh in K rate at 26% and Stroman does have both sides of the plate under a .255 wOBA, so he’s got that rolling for him. He’s very even-keeled in the splits as the K rate is nearly identical and the ground ball rate to lefties is 66% and Tampa is eighth in ground ball rate, with an everyday lineup of five lefties against righty pitching. It’s never anything wrong with Stroman, but it’s almost always a case of who’s been priced around him. That remains true today and he’s not a wrong play, but the potential upside on paper is simply not the same.
Chris Bassitt – It’s sort of tough to figure out why Bassitt has taken a big step forward so far. The pitch mix looks mostly the same and nothing sticks out on immediate inspection. Could it just be the new ball? Perhaps, but the K rate is 26.6% and the hard-hit rate is down to 24.8%. The O-Contact rate has dropped from 63% last year to 50% this year, so that does help explain why the K rate has jumped to a big degree. His slider is playing a role in that as it’s generated a 66% whiff rate, but he’s still only throwing it 5% of the time. Regardless of how he’s doing it, Bassitt has walked through five straight starts of 21 DK points or more. The wOBA to righties is .280 so that will help against the Twins. I’ll likely have other priorities, but this isn’t a bad play either.
Dylan Cease – He scuffled a little bit against the Twins but still managed to whiff seven hitters and is up to a 31.8% K rate. The FIP/xFIP is sitting at 3.16/3.62, which is very solid and he’s managed to cut the walks back to 11.5%. I grant you that’s not great but he was at 13.3% last year and only a 17.3% k rate so that’s significant progress. The hard-hit rate went from 36.3% in 2020 to 23.2% and the swinging-strike rate jumped up 5% to 14.2%. The slider has been his best strikeout pitch with 18 total and a whiff rate of 53%. My fear is the .314 wOBA to righties although that is being fueled by a .400 BABIP and the fact the Royals rank 10th in walk rate to righties. I wouldn’t be shocked if Cease lands between 14-18 DK points, which leaves him on the table for the day. Maybe just don’t check his score until the game is over.
Starting Rotation 5.16 – Out of Play
Kyle Gibson – Technically, Gibson should likely not be in this category. It’s more difficult to see him putting up 20-25 DK points than the other pitchers priced slightly above him, so I just can’t make room for him. I have some concerns with him being a little worse to righties, as Houston is somewhat righty-heavy. Gibson could also run into issues with a 15.9% K rate to the lefties like Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, and the scorching hot Kyle Tucker. Gibson throws none of his secondary pitches more than 19% so I can’t even hang my hat on the slider to righties. It’s generating a 51.9% whiff rate and a .235 wOBA, but how many will he actually use? I just feel much safer with other options.
Jordan Montgomery – I’m not quite ready to go back to Montgomery here. I know he just posted almost 32 DK points but Baltimore whiffs almost 10% less than the Rays. His 24.2% K rate is interesting at this salary but the 37.1% hard-hit rate isn’t super encouraging. It’s intriguing to see the Orioles sit 25th and 29th against the curve and change, which are the two main pitches for Montgomery at about 48% of his mix. What really worries me is the K rate to righties is 20.7% to go with a .337 wOBA and a .781 OPS. With Baltimore potentially rolling out seven righties, it’s enough to keep me away from him today.
Nathan Eovaldi – I’m not going to go here in a relatively tougher spot since Eovaldi is only sporting a 22% K rate and a swinging-strike rate under 12%. Eovaldi likely has a solid game similar to what he scored last time, which was 17 DK. He’s managed to keep both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA and the Angels are 23rd against the fastball, which is his main pitch. They are also 10th against the curve which is his secondary offering and LA is only whiffing 23.3% of the time.
Kenta Maeda – We’ve only been able to get two strong games from Maeda and they came against Detroit and Texas. His four-seam/slider combo is getting smashed this year and that makes up about 64% of his pitch mix. They both have a wOBA over .400, have given up seven home runs, and are both over a .575 slug. Oakland is top 10 against the slider and 15th against the fastball. Matt Olson is top-five for Oakland against both pitch types and Maeda has given up a .415 wOBA to lefties with a 2.65 HR/9. He and Seth Brown could be one-off hitters, as Brown is the best slider hitter on the team.
Josh Fleming – Through 62 IP in the majors, Fleming has only generated a 16.5% K rate with a 4.52 FIP. The Mets are second in OBP against lefties and only whiff 22.4% of the time so I couldn’t possibly see him coming close to a score that Ray or Cease could put up.
Matt Boyd – This would be a super high risk/high reward scenario since the Cubs whiff 27% of the time but are sixth in ISO, 10th in OPS, wOBA, and 11th in OBP. The Cubs are also 20th against the fastball and 24th against the change while sitting third against the slider, so there’s some potential with the pitch mix for Boyd. The slider is his third pitch and that helps a little bit but honestly, I do wish Boyd had a higher K rate than the 17.9% rate he sports. I’m also worried about the difference between the ERA and xFIP. Boyd has a 0.22 HR/9 (awesome) and a 1.9% HR/FB rate…which is less than ideal. His career rate is 13.6% and the xFIP this season is 4.89. That’s about a three-run gap for Boyd. Yes, he can continue to churn out 17-20 DK point games but it’s not for me today. At some point, that HR/FB rate is going up.
Kyle Hendricks – We could get another slugfest in Detroit today. The most-used pitch for Hendricks to lefties is a four-seam that sits at around 86 MPH. It’s yielded four home runs, a .462 average, 1.000 slugging, .630 wOBA, and his splits to lefties back up those numbers. They are destroying him with a .552 wOBA, 1.318 OPS, 4.22 HR/9, and an 8.55 FIP. The Tigers typically use 5-6 lefties in their everyday lineup.
Brady Singer – You’re not getting me today, Brady! Twice was plenty. Sure, the White Sox lead the league in ground ball rate and Singer does have a 47.3% ground ball rate himself, but I can’t stomach it again. When one of his pitches doesn’t work, he’s out there with just one other pitch. That’s the danger of relying on a four-seam/slider mix 96% of the time. Most starting pitchers throw at least three pitches. Think about Tyler Glasnow. Adding the slider has helped unlock his true ceiling, after sitting on the four-seam and curve for so long. The K rate for Singer is just over 23% but there’s too much chance something goes wrong here for my tastes.
Jose Quintana – This is not a good matchup on paper for the veteran lefty. For starters, he throws a curve 30% of the time and the is his co-lead pitch with a four-seam. Boston is ranked first against the curve and is top-eight in every offensive category to lefty pitching. Quintana’s curve has a 53.8% whiff rate but that’s about where the good news stops. It’s giving up a .437 wOBA, a .455 slug, and a .364 average. It just so happens the J.D. Lefty Destroyer Martinez (that’s his legal middle name, look it up) is the highest-rated curveball hitter in the majors. Quintana is giving up a .408 wOBA to righties, along with an OPS over .900. In fact, four Red Sox are in the top 30 against the curve including Rafael Devers, Bobby Dalbec, and Xander Bogaerts.
Chase Anderson – He’s just too unstable for me and when the ERA and xFIP match exactly at 5.23, that’s a tough sell. It’s even tougher when the K rate is under 19% A .342 wOBA to righties seems like a really poor metric to take into a matchup with the Jays on top of that, even with a .326 BABIP.
Mitch Keller – My guy gets smacked by both sides of the plate but lefties get him worse with a .400 wOBA, .931 OPS, and a 5.72 xFIP. Just wait to play him until he goes somewhere else and they figure him out. Throwing the four-seam almost 59% is more than last season and it gives up a .342 wOBA with only a 17.7% whiff rate. I hate my own team some days.
Thomas Eshelman – It seems like a very bad idea to use him against the Yankees with a career 5.89 xFIP, 12.4% K rate, 41.3% fly-ball rate, and a .365 wOBA to righties. He also features a career 2.53 HR/9 to righties and a 6.32 FIP.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
