Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 5.10
We only have six games on the slate for Monday but the Starting Rotation 5.10 options may be less than half of that. This one looks to be a tough cookie and we may see a lot of the field gravitate towards a very small player pool. That means that we can take some chances as leverage, but it also may not be the worst idea to stick with the chalkier options and be different elsewhere. Let’s lay the foundation for the Starting Rotation 5.10 and figure out what direction we want to head to find the green!
Starting Rotation 5.10 – Main Targets
Alex Wood ($9,800 DK/$8,900 FD)
I would be surprised if Wood is not the chalk on the slate, even after a bit of a speed bump in his last start. It was in Coors so it’s pretty easy to overlook and Wood has been dominant across his three other starts this season. The venue of San Francisco helps Wood since Texas will lose their DH spot and he’s been great through 23 IP with a 25.6% K rate, 0.78 HR/9, 13.1% swinging-strike rate, and his 33.3% CSW. If he had the innings to qualify, the CSW would be seventh in baseball and he has a FIP/xFIP combo of 3.10 and 2.82 to prove that the 1.96 ERA doesn’t appear to be a fluke.
The three-pitch mix is relatively even, but the strikeout distribution is certainly not with 18 of 22 coming from a slider. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Adolis Garcia are the primary concerns with that pitch as both are inside the top 10 in baseball against it. Garcia boasts a wOBA over .350 but also has a K rate over 27% to lefties while Kiner-Falefa is sporting a .111 ISO to LHP. I’m also not sure how you hit this thing –
Wood is also holding the right side of the plate to a .186 wOBA, .400 OPS, and has a 30.8% K are to that side. Even though the price is higher than I’d particularly like, the slate dictates Wood being one of the most appealing options on the board.
Tyler Mahle ($8,400 DK/$8,900 FD)
Note – Most of Mahle’s write-up is from yesterday, with things changed just based on the new matchup.
Mahle is looking to bounce back after getting whacked in the last start and gets a weakened offense even though Kyle Hendricks wouldn’t know that. He is quietly 10th in K rate in the majors among qualified starters at 32.8% and has the swinging-strike rate at 12.2% with a 32% CSW. His ERA/FIP/xFIP are all under 3.90 and when those numbers are relatively in harmony, I’m more inclined to believe them in the longer run. The nice thing is the HR/FB rate is 15.6% so that should be fairly stable, meaning the 45.7% fly-ball rate doesn’t have to completely scare us off.
It’s also interesting to note that the slider is performing differently this year. In 2020, it had a 41.5% whiff rate and a .253 wOBA. This season, the wOBA is .335 and the whiff rate is only 28.6%. It’s seeing less movement this year and I wonder if he gets this pitch “right”, what is going to happen. The profile already is strong. If the slider returns to 2020 form, it could get really fun. The splitter has picked up some slack as a strikeout pitch but the slider could still be a key for him.
Pittsburgh is only going to have three lefties in their lineup in likelihood, but I’m not that concerned with Mahle’s .445 wOBA to the right side of the plate. His BABIP is .393 and the HR/FB rate is 30.8%, both of which are fairly ridiculous. Mahle is still striking out 29.4% of the righties he’s faced and Pittsburgh is over 22% in K rate themselves.
Kyle Gibson ($8,600 DK/$9,500 FD)
Not only is he one of the few options on the board that we can turn to, but this spot shapes up nicely for Gibson. First off, the splits push his potential as he’s been fantastic to lefty hitters. Gibson has only yielded a .203 wOBA, .448 OPS, and 2.58 FIP to that side of the plate. The negative is the K rate is only 15.9% but some of that might be helped by the fact the Giants are third in K rate to righty pitching at 27.9%. The biggest reason the K rate is so low is his best strikeout pitch is the slider with 18 total punch-outs and a whiff rate over 52% but he doesn’t utilize it to lefties very much, just 22 times so far this season. It’s the strongest argument why the ceiling may not be as high as we’d like.
Even having said that, it’s hard to overlook Gibson at this point. The K rate of 21.3% isn’t going to wow you by any stretch but the FIP/xFIP are both under 3.90 and he’s not allowing any hard contact, with a 5.2% barrel rate and a 27% hard-hit rate. The 52.2% ground ball rate is top 15 in the league and I can’t help but wonder if the 13.4% swinging strike rate tells us the K rate could get higher. Gibson ranks 18th in that metric and all 17 of the pitchers that rank higher than him are at least over 23% in their K rate. It’s at least an interesting comparison even if it’s not predictive.
Jordan Holloway ($4,000 DK)
So the Marlins have not announced an official starter as of Sunday Night. Craig Mish states that Holloway should be getting a big chunk, and since Holloway threw 61 pitches five days ago, that would make perfect sense. It remains to be seen if he starts or if a Marlins pitcher is the opener, but either way, I’m ready to roll him out there on this slate. Holloway is 24 years old and has all of 10.1 IP at the major league level, but he possesses a big four-seam that averages 95.4 MPH and can get to the 97-99 MPH range. Additionally, he’s throwing his slider right about 50% of the time as his lead pitch and it has only surrendered a single and a double through 14 BBE.
The 27% K rate he currently sports is interesting in and of itself, but Holloway has sat between 35.7% and 22% in his last three stops in the minors (albeit two years ago now). The swinging-strike rate is a touch low at 10.5% but the CSW is up to 32.1%. His two main pitches are both over 29% whiff rate so that helps a little. Since he only pitched three innings the last time, I have slightly less fear that the D-Backs already saw him. There’s not a lot of predictability in 10.1 IP, but the price is right. Regardless of starting or being the long man out of the bullpen, he needs to be paid attention to at this salary. If he can get close to 75 pitches and 15 DK points, Holloway could be quite the bargain and unlock the offenses we want tonight.
Starting Rotation 5.10 – In Play
Luke Weaver – Typically, he will be in the out-of-play category but this is one where we can at least think about him. Now, I can’t see much of a path to beat out the other high-priced arms in DK points. Past one random start against the Reds, Weaver has been under 11 DK in every other start and has no real business at $9,000. Why is he in play? Well, the Marlins represent possibly the best matchup Weaver can get.
He’s using his four-seam and changeup almost 95% of the time and Miami is 20th against the fastball and dead last against the change. Weaver does have a 22.3% K rate and the changeup has his best whiff rate at 25.9%. The Marlins do not have a hitter over a 0.5 rating against the change and the .381 wOBA it’s given up could even out for this start. They are also 28th in OPS and ISO, which could mitigate the 46.1% hard-hit rate (yeeeesh) and the 1.82 HR/9. I’m not a big fan, but this has some potential to get off the chalk I suspect at the top of the salary tier.
Luis Garcia – This is where the slate takes us, and I severely doubt I land on Garcia tonight. Still, we have to at least note the 28% K rate through his 24.2 IP so far and the hard-hit rate is only 28.3%. I don’t love the 53.3% fly-ball rate but at least the swinging-strike rate is 14.2%. The four-seam is only at a 14.6% whiff rate but his secondary pitches of the cutter and slider both are over 46%. They also both have a wOBA under .120 but the four-seam is at .395 and he’s throwing that one 46.7% of the time. It’s a very tough spot as the Angels are top-five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and slugging with a K rate barely over 22%. I’m intrigued by the talent but he seems pricey for the matchup at hand.
Starting Rotation 5.10 – Out of Play
Dinelson Lamet – The Padres are being very careful with Lamet and he hasn’t thrown more than 30 pitches yet in either start. We’d be lucky to see 50 pitches and he’s far too expensive for that, not even counting the fact he’s in Colorado.
Martin Perez – The Orioles are top 12 in average, OPS, slugging, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties this season and 14th in ISO on top of that. They are 29th against the changeup but Perez throws the cutter the most at 35% compared to 22.9% for the change. Baltimore smacks the cutter with the fourth-best rating and Cedric Mullens stands out. Not only is he the best cutter hitter in the league, but he also has a .447 wOBA to lefty pitching. Perez has given up a .332 wOBA to lefties, and the righties are over .315 as well.
Mitch Keller – He’s coming off his best start of the year, but there are some underlying issues with it. On the year, Keller is throwing the four-seam 57% of the time. In the Padres start, Keller threw it 69% of the time and it stymied the Friars. I’m not sure that’s a good idea for Keller in this spot. Not only did San Diego only whiff on two of 22 four-seams, but the Reds are also the best-rated team against the fastball this season. Cincinnati is also top-five in all of our offensive categories and both sides of the plate are over .345 in wOBA. If Keller pumps in fastballs at nearly a 70% rate in this start, it could well be a short one.
Jorge Lopez – I suppose there could be a path for Lopez to annoy the Red Sox with a 45.5% ground ball rate and the 24.7% hard-hit rate. The 6.14 FIP doesn’t help breed confidence at all and both sides of the plate are over a 2.00 HR/9. I will not the righties have a 3.64 xFIP and just a .322 wOBA but I don’t think I have the guts for this one.
Antonio Senzatela – The ground ball rate is 52.4% so maybe that helps, but the K rate is 13.1% and the Padres are sporting the second-best K rate to righties in baseball. Righty hitters are tagging Senzatela for a .398 wOBA, .973 OPS, a 2.25 HR/9, and a 5.77 FIP. I’m happy to pair up the Padres offense (among others) with Holloway and a pitcher like Wood or Mahle tonight.
Jose Suarez – We have an 83.1 IP sample between last year and this, and Saurez frankly looks terrible. The xFIP is 5.85, the HR/9 is 2.59, and the hard-hit rate is 48.7%. Righties have faced him 296 times and racked up a .443 wOBA, 1.071 OPS, .349 average, and a 3.22 HR/9. The Astros check-in as my top stack as of Sunday night.
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