Adam Zibuda What’s up everyone, happy Wednesday and happy Cinco de Mayo! Check out the FanDuel MLB 5/5 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have yet another 10 game main slate that locks at 7:05 and only one game where we really need to worry about a PPD. Let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. Tonight is another night where we have two pitchers priced way above the rest of the field over on FanDuel. While Yu Darvish has the easier matchup going up against the punch-less Pirates, it is never a smart idea to pass on a Shane Bieber ($12,200) start. If I am spending up at the pitcher position, I am going to the top tonight.
I probably do not need to tell anyone reading this how solid of a pitcher Bieber is, so I will keep this section short. Shane owns an insane 40.5% strikeout rate, 2.53 SIERA, and only allows a 26.4% hard contact rate. Lock and load SB with confidence in all formats tonight, even against a Royals squad that has been hitting the ball well recently.
B. Dropping down into the mid range of this FanDuel MLB 5/5 DFS slate, Freddy Peralta ($9,000) is a strong option tonight. Peralta and the Brewers are listed as favorites over the Phillies, and when we dig into the pitching numbers we can really start to see why.
Freddy owns the second highest strikeout rate on the entire day at an elite 38.8%, trailing only my SP1 on the night. While Peralta does have issues with his control at times and allows a few too many fly balls, strikeout upside like this is usually more than enough for him to pay off his salary despite a few mistakes.
C. My final pitcher of the night is significantly riskier than the previous two, so I can only recommend this play for GPPs. However if we want to get exposure to some expensive bats, Adbert Alzolay ($6,400) allows us to do just that.
The main reason that this is a GPP only play is the matchup, as the Cubs face off against the LA Dodgers explosive offense on Wednesday. If we accept that double A had his price adjusted for this matchup and just focus on his stats, we should have some real interest here. Alzolay sports a 31% strikeout rate accompanied by a 3.81 SIERA and a 31.6% hard contact rate. At this price point, those are numbers that you just will not see very frequently, and I like taking some shots on him tonight.
The Bases
A. Similar to my SP3, one of my favorite teams to stack tonight should be reserved for GPPs only. The Texas Rangers have been one of the absolute worst offenses in the MLB to start off this 2021 season, as they strikeout at an alarming rate and struggle to put runs on the board.
With that said, they draw a juicy matchup tonight against Lewis Thorpe, who really is not ready to be pitching in the majors quite yet. Thorpe has subpar statistics across the board, from his massive 5.77 SIERA to his laughable 13.7% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate. If the Rangers cannot provide some serious run production in this matchup then I am not sure they can against anyone.
B. The Oakland Athletics are a safer team for us to stack in our lineups on Wednesday night as they are an offense that provides more firepower than the Rangers. While Robbie Ray is a household name, he is also apt to get shelled given his insane and well-documented control issues.
Ray is the proud owner of the highest sample size-adjusted walk rate of the entire day at an astounding 16%! He is just not a pitcher that is able to keep the ball in the strike zone or fool hitters into thinking that his throws are in the zone. While he is sometimes able to get out of jams using his slightly above average 26% strikeout rate, there should be so much traffic on the base paths for these big Oakland bats to drive to the plate.
C. My final team of the night to either stack or mix in as one-off plays on FanDuel is the Atlanta Braves. Let me start off with the Braves player that I will definitely not be targeting, and that is Freddie Freeman. Freeman has been playing terrible throughout the first month of the season, batting nearly .200, and yet his price has barely budged across the DFS industry. I will be off Freeman until his price adjusts or he wakes up from this slumber he is in.
As far as the rest of the Braves bats, they draw a juicy matchup against Erick Fedde and his 5.08 SIERA. Fedde has significantly below average strikeout ability, a high walk rate, but he is able to limit hard contact and keep hits on the ground. Looking to Braves batters on FanDuel with high fly ball and barrel rates like Ronald Acuna Jr. is an excellent idea.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
