Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy hump day! Check out the FanDuel MLB 4/28 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a pretty large 10 game main slate today. This slate locks at 7:05, so let’s get into the picks.
The Aces
A. Even though I only write Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, it seems as though deGrom is always pitching whenever I sit down to type up my article. Lucky (or unlucky, depending on how you look at it) for us, deGrom is pitching in a game that is just a bit earlier than the main slate, so we do not have the opportunity to roster him tonight. For what it is worth, I do love the Red Sox at +200 and up on the money line on Wednesday night.
The ace pitcher that we are actually able to target on the main slate tonight is Tyler Glasnow ($10,800). While the Oakland Athletics are not a matchup to scoff at, as they are ranked in the top 10 in the MLB in runs scored this season, Glasnow’s 39% strikeout rate should more than cover any potential mistakes he makes. With no other pitcher in sight on the main slate in terms of strikeout upside and the ability to limit runs, Glasnow is a lock and load play in all formats.
B. My second pitcher for Wednesday night is not someone who is a household name just yet, but he is well on his way. Ryan Weathers ($6,300) will be throwing against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, who are surprisingly ranked second in the MLB in runs scored, and 8th in OBP.
While the D-Backs are not exactly a cake walk of a matchup, Weathers currently owns a 0.59 ERA over the last two seasons, accompanied by a 3.38 SIERA. Those numbers are elite, and this price tag is actually laughable when you dig into the pitching metrics for Weathers. Add a 30% strikeout rate to this combination, and Weathers is the best point per dollar play on the slate by a country mile.
C. I will also be going back to the well on Carlos Rodon ($11,000) tonight, despite the massive price hike. Rodon deserves this price bump, as he was a toe-ball away from pitching a perfect game recently.
I think this price will help suppress his ownership significantly, and his combination of strikeout upside with run limitation is top three on the main slate for tonight. Not to mention, the Detroit Tigers are DEAD LAST in the majors in OBP and have looked absolutely lost at the plate this entire season. This matchup could not be easier for a pitcher that is looking the best that he has his entire career thus far.
The Bases
A. This first stack may be a bit chalky, but unless the ownership gets truly out of control, I will be targeting the Houston Astros as often as possible tonight. This team ranks 5th in the league in OBP and in runs scored, so they can light up the scoreboard quickly.
A top 5 offense in the MLB facing a pitcher like Justin Dunn is a situation that is usually too good to pass on. Dunn owns the highest SIERA on the day of 5.94, his strikeout rate is below average, and he gives up free passes in droves. A 16% walk rate is truly pathetic, and I would be shocked if this Astros team did not tee off on Dunn tonight.
B. The Philadelphia Phillies are another team that I will be going back to the well on tonight, as they face off against the Saint Louis Cardinals. Johan Oviedo will be taking the mound for the Cards, and the line for this game is basically set as a pick ’em.
The Phillies are towards the bottom of the barrel in runs scored, but their OBP of .310 is actually good for 11th place. Oviedo on the other hand, owns the lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher on the day at 15.5%, surrenders plenty of runs, and really does not do anything very well on the mound. I expect Hoskins to stay hot here and he is an excellent one-off or stack building block.
C. My final team for Wednesday night is the Toronto Blue Jays. What a game from Vlad Guerrero last night, as he was able to launch three bombs, including two off of one of the top pitchers in the majors, Max Scherzer. If the Jays can put up nine runs during a Mad Max start, just imagine what they can do against Erick Fedde.
Fedde is a sub par major league pitcher in nearly every statistical category. The only thing that he does well is he is able to limit hard contact and keep the ball on the ground. If we target fly ball hitters with high barrel rates, that eliminates the only two things that Fedde is able to achieve on the baseball diamond. His SIERA, strikeout rate, and walk rate are all extremely poor, and the Blue Jays should continue rolling in this spot.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
