Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.28
We get another double-digit slate tonight with 10 games and one very clear-cut ace at the top. Things get pretty fun after that as we have some pitchers in fantastic spots at some good salaries, which is always what we’re looking for. We have plenty of work ahead of us in the Starting Rotation 4.28 so let’s get to work laying the foundation for green screens!
Starting Rotation 4.28 – Main Targets
Tyler Glasnow ($10,300 DK/$10,800 FD)
When you’re giving up five runs and still can score 19.3 DK points, you can bet that the interest remains high in that next start. Glasnow is fifth in the league in K rate at 39.7% and his fastball is ranked second in FanGraphs rating. Considering he throws it 55% of the time and the A’s are one of the worst teams against it, that’s a very nice checkmark for Glasnow. That pitch also shares the strikeout lead for him with the curve at 21 each, while the slider only has four. He’s getting a 32.8% whiff rate on the pitch and only a .249 xwOBA against it. The 16% swinging-strike rate is also the highest rate of Glasnow’s career and the hard-hit rate of just 19.7% is second in MLB.
Oakland is about mid-pack in K rate to righties at 24.7% and in fairness, Glasnow is a little worse to RHH. They have a .229 wOBA, .143 average, and a 39.4% K rate with a FIP and xFIP combo below 3.00. Yes, that’s the worse side of the plate for him and illustrates just how good Glasnow has been. On this slate, he’s a clear step above everyone else and I would have to assume he’s chalk in cash games. Who doesn’t want to play this guy?
Carlos Rodon ($9,800 DK/$11,000 FD)
I say Glasnow is a clear step up, but I wouldn’t say it’s a big step because Rodon is on fire to start and is in the best possible spot. Detroit is 29th or 30th in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while sporting the highest K rate to lefties at 34.2%. It’s not even an exaggeration to say the spot for Rodon is THE best in baseball. Some of Rodon’s metrics are skewed by a no-hitter that was nearly a perfect game but the K rate is still 32.4%. The walk rate is a touch high at 10.8% but goes which team is 29th in walk rate? Survey says….the Detroit Tigers!
I do know Rodon has some type of regression coming. That’s not a hot take or anything with a 0.47 ERA and he’s never come close to the 16% swinging strike rate he’s posting right now. He’s picked up about 2 MPH on the four-seam and slider and those two pitches have every single strikeout for Rodon. It should also be noted that the xSLG and the xwOBA for the fastball are .503 and .358, which isn’t exactly great. Still, with the Tigers on the other side, I believe Rodon has at least one more start to be worth this salary and we can certainly explore the double ace route.
Alex Wood ($8,300 DK/$8,800 FD)
Wood only has two starts so his metrics need to be taken with that grain of salt, but he’s been outstanding so far. The K rate is 27.5%, the WHIP is 0.42, the hard contact is 17.9%, and the swinging-strike rate is 13.9%. If he qualified, Wood would lead the majors in ground ball rate at 63% and the sinker shouldn’t scare us. Only Trevor Story and C.J. Cron have wOBA’s over .330 and ISO’s over .150 in the potential Rockies lineup. Cron especially looks appealing with a .611 ISO and a .741 wOBA (and crushes lefty sliders), but I’m not going to move off a pitcher because of one or two hitters.
He’s not going to continue to have a .111 BABIP but he’s dominating RHH so much that I’m not overly concerned the regression hits all at once. Through 33 hitters faced, they have a .075 wOBA, .063 average, and a 33.3% K rate. The FIP and xFIP are both under 1.75 to that side of the plate as well. The Rockies are no better than slightly below average in any category we value outside of Denver against lefties, so Wood likely picks up some traction through the day.
German Marquez ($7,500 DK/$8,200 FD)
Marquez is always a fun pitcher to use when the Rockies hit the road, and he’s pitched well to start the season despite four of his first five starts coming in Coors. His issue has always been lefty hitters which would lead you to think he’s not the best play tonight. Realistically, there is some risk but the Giants could be without Mike Yastrzemski, which would be a big blow to the offense. The Giants are sporting the second-highest K rate to righties so far at 28.4% and Marquez is holding LHH to a .219 average, .313 wOBA, and a 22.7% K rate. His curve has been doing some serious work with 18 strikeouts already and a 50.9% whiff rate. San Fran looks solid against that pitch but looking at it individually, there’s only one hitter to worry about.
Brandon Belt has a 3.8 rating against the pitch while no other Giant is over 0.7. For context, that leaves Belt as the fourth-best curveball hitter in baseball, so keep him in mind in all formats. Marquez is sporting the highest ground ball rate in baseball among qualified starters at 59.7% so even when he’s not striking hitters out, they’re not getting the ball in the air. His 12.8% swinging-strike rate is right in line with career numbers and Marquez has upside at this salary. This game could turn low-scoring if both pitchers are on their game.
Zack Greinke ($9,400 DK/$9,000 FD)
I hesitate to even use pitch data because Greinke will throw anything at any point and doesn’t always sit around the same speeds. He legitimately went sidearm on a random pitch –
Still, it is pretty solid for him on paper as the Mariners don’t hit his pitch types all that well. The last time Greinke saw them, he spun an absolute gem of an eight-inning, four-hit ball and scored 31.6 DK points. I doubt that happens again and the K rate for Greinke is still pretty low a 17.1%. I always worry about K rates that low at this salary because you’re going to need eight innings out of him to pay off. The 8.4% swinging-strike rate is the lowest it’s been since 2011 and that’s a worry as well. Seattle does strikeout over 25% of the time so I don’t want to totally ignore Greinke, but I don’t believe he’ll be a priority for me tonight. I will also admit some bias here as I never seem to get Greinke right.
Ryan Weathers ($7,300 DK/$6,300 FD)
Weathers has now pitched in four games and earned some leash in the rotation for the Padres. Pitching to a 0.59 ERA with a 29.6% K rate through 15.1 IP tends to do that. He’s definitely dancing through some raindrops a little bit with a 43.8% hard-hit rate and a fly ball rate over 40% but he does have a 95 MPH fastball and a decent slider to match. Being the youngest starter in the majors isn’t easy, and neither is facing the Dodgers but here he is.
This is a tough matchup. Arizona whiffs only 21.7% of the time to lefty pitching, not to mention they rank inside the top-three in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. It’s not for the faint of heart. Weathers has faced 31 righties and held them to a .184 wOBA, .074 average, and is whiffing them at a 32.3% rate. If you’re brave enough to play him, you’re banking on pedigree and poise from the young man. He’s also got his pitch count up to 89, so if everything is going well six innings is not out of the question.
Starting Rotation 4.28 – In Play
Steven Matz – He was close to getting a full write-up but I’m not sure how much I play him with Wood cheaper on DK. Matz gets another tough assignment tonight against the Nationals but he’s pitched so well so far he needs to be in the player pool. His change could be a big weapon with the second-most strikeouts and Washington ranking 24th against that pitch. The 27.2% K rate for Matz is easily his best in his career and the Nationals as a whole don’t profile well against his sinker, which is the main pitch. Only Josh Bell, Starlin Castro, and Victor Robles have an ISO over .250 but they all also have a ground ball rate over 51%.
Alex Cobb – He hurt me last time but we have short memories around here. We all know the Rangers strike out a ton and still lead MLB in K rate to RHP. Texas is only 19th against the splitter this year and that pitch is the deal-breaker for Cobb. It has 15 of 21 strikeouts and Cobb has been nasty to LHH with a .226 wOBA, 32.1% K rate, and no home runs allowed. I sort of hope he slips through the cracks and makes for a solid GPP play. The 2.53 FIP and 2.35 xFIP tell a much different story than the 6.28 ERA.
Cole Irvin – We all know that attacking the Rays with lefties can end one of two ways. Irvin has an 18.3% K rate which is a little low for my tastes but does at least generate a 40.6% ground ball rate. The CSW is just 23.3% and the Rays are a mixed bag against lefty sinkers and fastballs, which are the main two pitches for Irvin. He is holding RHH to a .264 wOBA which scuffling with the lefties at a .483 mark. Perhaps we can look to the Rays lefties for a one-off or mini-stack.
Dean Kremer – Are we brave enough to go after Yankee hitters for a third straight game? Kremer could go full Matt Harvey here. He relies on the fastball 53% of the time and he throws right-handed, which is important. New York is getting owned by righties and Kremer features a 3.62 xFIP contrasted with his 6.75 ERA. His walk rate is scary at 12% but the K rate is 28%, the fly ball rate is only 30%, the hard-hit rate is 26.7%, and the CSW is over 28%. These aren’t objectively poor numbers. Much like Harvey, his BABIP is out of hand at .429. Kremer is better to RHH with a 2.26 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, zero homers, and a .320 wOBA. As far as I’m concerned, here we go again. This might be from 2020, but the stuff remains –
Starting Rotation 4.28 – Out of Play
Taylor Widener – The Padres have not hit the fastball well yet, ranking just 24th in baseball. Widener throws his about 63% of the time but also has a .408 xwOBA and the FIP/xFIP combo is an identical 4.75, well above the 2.82 ERA he has. Widener is also sporting a 1.61 HR/9 and an 88.2% strand rate, which won’t hold up. The Padres are third in hard-hit rate as a team to righties and Widener is over 47% for his rate.
Huascar Ynoa – I’m sort of on the fence with Ynoa but I’m settling with leaving him out of play. The K rate is awesome at 29.8% but his hard-hit rate is 40% and the BABIP is only .200. The HR/9 at 2.05 isn’t exactly appealing, nor is the last time he faced the Cubs and got smacked. Chicago is still striking out a ton and Ynoa does generate a swinging-strike rate over 13% but I’m still a little nervous on this spot for him. If you decided to play him, I don’t think I’d mount a strong argument against it.
Kyle Hendricks – A righty who has a K rate under 21% and is not generating ground balls isn’t where I look to attack the Atlanta offense. His FIP is 7.57 and that’s coming with a strand rate of 89.6%. His three main pitches are all over a .405 xSLG and a .330 xwOBA. Hendricks is throwing the sinker almost 40% of the time and he’s allowed two homers already. Let’s take a look at Atlanta against righty sinkers –
Domingo German – He’s only pitched 13 innings because he’s getting clobbered with a 6.23 ERA and a 5.78 FIP. The BABIP is high at .349 but so is the HR/9 at 2.77. German is seeing a hard-hit rate at almost 47% and each side of the plate is over a .340 wOBA against him with RHH sitting at .468.
Erick Fedde – You’ll have to excuse me if I’m not buying the 24.3% K rate for Fedde so far. he’s sitting at 16% for his career, which spans 210.1 IP. He is throwing the cutter more but that’s not a huge K pitch for him. He does get a decent lineup for his splits, which he’s holding RHH to a .251 wOBA and lefties are getting to him for a .374 wOBA. Even still, I’m not bold enough to attack Toronto and Vlad Daddy. Fedde hasn’t exactly faced a gauntlet up to this point and the Braves offense smacked him around.
Dane Dunning – The metrics don’t look too bad for Dunning through his 17.2 IP with a 24% K rate and a 2.47 FIP/3.30 xFIP combo. However, the Angels are one of the lowest strikeout teams in the league. Dunning is also leaning on his sinker 62% of the time. While it’s generated 10 of his 18 strikeouts, LA profiles extremely well against righty sinkers. Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, and Albert Pujols all have a wOBA of at least .347 and an ISO of at least .250 against that pitch type.
Vince Velasquez – It’s hard to ever suggest playing a pitcher with a WHIP over 2.00, even with a 32.5% K rate. RHH have also smashed Vinnie Velo for a .531 wOBA, .333 average, and a 4.91 HR/9. That’s not ideal when you have five righties in the opposing lineup.
Casey Mize – We all want the kid to be good, but he flat out hasn’t yet in the majors. Through 49 IP, he has a 6.41 FIP, 5.09 xFIP, 17.9% K rate, and just a 9.3% swinging-strike rate. His talent will allow him to pop up for a great start now and again but most slates it’s foolhardy to play him. The White Sox have the third-best strikeout rate on top of that.
Johan Oviedo – The young righty is making his first start of the season but has yet to show much upside in his 29.1 IP. Sure, that’s a small sample size but his K rate is only 15.5% and the CSW is 27.1%. I will say that Philly isn’t above average against his main three pitches of the four-seam, cutter, and curve but I’m not willing to go after just that. Additionally, RHH have a .370 wOBA against him in his short career.
Justin Dunn – There’s going to be a point where we use this kid and do it with a smile. He’s using the curve more and more this season, and that’s a good thing. It has a 30% whiff rate, .230 xwOBA and .224 xSLG. Unfortunately, his fastball is sitting at a .496 xwOBA and a .657 xSLG. His walk rate is super elevated at 16.9% and Houston is top five against the fastball and only whiffs 20% of the time. It’s just not the right matchup.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
