Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.27
Tuesday brings us a much larger slate but the quality of pitching isn’t exactly spectacular. There’s quality at the top but the cliff goes down pretty steeply. That doesn’t mean we can’t find some gems through the lineups, but it becomes more of a challenge. Let’s not mess about and get into the Starting Rotation 4.27 so we can lay the foundation to find the green screens again!
Starting Rotation 4.27 – Main Targets
Lucas Giolito ($9,300 DK/$$10,600 FD)
Giolito was slated to start Sunday for the White Sox but was sick and got his start pushed. This is part of what I wrote before that start and I 100% stand by it today –
Giolito got blasted last time out but that doesn’t really affect today in my eyes. First off, every pitcher has some bad days. It happens in baseball. Secondly, he took the mound at what amounted to 10 AM for his rhythm. Giolito is typically in the Central time zone and it’s a tough ask to pitch that early in the morning (11 AM Eastern). Pitchers especially are creatures of habit. So the 5.79 ERA is not only skewed but the 3.53 FIP and 2.94 xFIP also suggest positive regression for Giolito is just around the corner. He won’t continue to have a 55.6% strand rate and a .311 BABIP when he’s sporting a 32.1% K rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, and a 31.4% CSW.
Now he gets the Detroit lineup that is struggling to get the ball in play with a 27.4% K rate, fifth-worst in the league. The Detroit lineup also plays into his strengths as far as splits go this year. The projected hitters include six lefties and/or switch hitters and Giolito has a .227 wOBA, .205 average, and a 35.7% K rate to that side of the plate. Even the FIP is all the way down at 1.00.
We have one bigger name on the mound, but Giolito has one of the best matchups on the board for a cheaper salary. Even with some extended rest, I’m not overly worried.
Max Scherzer ($10,900 DK/$12,000 FD)
Typically we don’t use pitchers against the Blue Jays lineup but Max is just built differently. Toronto only carries a K rate of 23.9% which is 19th in the league. That’s not a huge number but the pitch mix is outstanding for Scherzer. The only pitch Toronto hits well is the curve and that’s the pitch Scherzer uses the least. The 1.80 ERA looks excellent but he does have a 100% strand rate so that’s not going to continue at his current rates. The K rate is still almost 36% which is 11th in the league. The fly ball rate is a little worrisome at 59.3% and little things like that could be the tie-breaker with a pitcher like Lucas Giolito.
Both the swinging strike rate and CSW are still high at 15.7% and 31.3% so Scherzer is getting plenty of strikes regardless of type. The most noticeable metric for Scherzer that looks different is the wOBA to RHH at .302. He’s always been a little worse to lefties so seeing that is surprising. The HR/9 is also elevated at 2.53 so far, out of character as well. I thought perhaps the pitch type data would help and the slider is what sticks out. Last year, that pitch had a .176 wOBA and a .167 slugging.
This season, it sits at .290 and 375 in each category. That’s still not bad, but explains a little bit why righties are suddenly hitting better. It does have a little bit less movement on the vertical and horizontal movement charts, which isn’t super helpful. It’s not like the slider is all that bad, either –
The good news for Mad Max is Vlad Guerrero is the only hitter with a FanGraphs rating above 0.6. Vlad ranks 10th in the league against the pitch so the Jays rank is deceiving. I think I prefer Giolito in a vacuum but Scherzer is likely still the pitching chalk.
Christian Javier ($9,300 DK/$9,400 FD)
Someone at DK needs to explain to me how Javier can score 30 DK and see his salary drop by $300. That’s flat-out ridiculous. Javier actually possesses a higher K rate than Scherzer at 36.4% through his 13.2 IP this season. One of the differences is he’s throwing his secondary pitches more often. The slider and the curve have jumped up roughly 4% each and the slider especially is the one doing damage. It has 10 of the 20 strikeouts Javier has recorded so far with a .084 xwOBA and a 51.5% whiff rate. Even the FanGraphs rating backs up the slider as Javier is tied at 16th with Jacob deGrom. It looks even better when it’s paired with a fastball like this –
Javier has yet to give up a bomb and the Mariners look like an exploitable matchup, at least for strikeouts. They’re flirting with 26% and are in the bottom half of the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against righty pitching. Only Kyle Seager has a FanGraphs rating over 1.0 against the slider of their everyday players. Javier should face off against six RHH in the Mariners lineup and that’s a help to him. He’s smashing the right side of the plate with a .138 average, .211 wOBA, 43.8% K rate, and a 0.82 FIP.
Walker Buehler ($10,200 DK/$9,800 FD)
It’s not the best day to spend down at pitching and these four at the top are really bunched up for me. Buehler still carries some concern in my eyes with just a 22.1% K rate and that’s easily the worst of the bunch. At the same time, we just saw him shove for seven innings against the Padres and put up 27.4 DK points with nine strikeouts. I’m not in love with the hard contact at 43.8% but the fastball is doing some heavy lifting. It’s 11th in FanGraphs ratings and has 15 of 21 strikeouts so far. Buehler has picked up vertical movement while losing a bit of horizontal, which is interesting to note.
The scary part of that is the xSLG and the xwOBA on that pitch are both much higher this season, at .572 and .354 respectively. Last year those numbers were .183 and .198. That is honestly a concern to me, especially since the Reds are a top team against the fastball this year. The flip side to that is the Reds are bottom-six in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ on the road to righties this year. We talked yesterday about the sample being small overall and they are only 21st in plate appearances in that split. It’s still a factor in our decisions. With a career-best WHIP of 0.88 so far, Buehler can be effective without strikeouts for real life. The question is do we want to pay five figures on DK? I lean no and have the top four ranked Giolito/Scherzer as 1A and 1B, Javier a close second, and then a gap to Buehler.
Starting Rotation 4.27 – In Play
Zach Eflin – It does not appear to be a slate where we’re going to be able to pay down at pitching. Perhaps the field flocks to someone I’m not guessing right now, but as I mentioned, it does get ugly quickly. Eflin has to get a look in part because the Cardinals don’t profile well against righty sinkers and that’s nearly 50% of his pitches. Additionally, the Cards are still whiffing 26% of the time to righty pitching and Eflin sits at a 19.2% K rate. That does come up to 24.6% to RHH, but he feels just a little pricey.
Ian Anderson – The matchup suddenly doesn’t look very easy, as the Cubs have gone from 30th to 16th against fastballs with frightening speed. Six of the eight projected hitters have ISO’s over .200 against said pitch and Anderson has a walk rate over 11% on the year. Chicago is ninth in walk rate and 11th in ISO. This could be a tough spot for Anderson, even with a 24.5% K rate. I’m honestly not likely to go here but Anderson’s talent leaves him in the player pool for the deep GPP players.
Frankie Montas – It’s not a pick that I’m particularly fond of, but he is one of two pitchers I could see the field using as an SP2 on DK with his salary. The Rays are about average in K rate at 24.8% and Montas is respectable at 23.3%. He’s sporting his best swinging-strike rate at 12.3% which is useful as well. Tampa doesn’t profile well against righty sinkers for the most part and the projected six LHH could help out Montas. He’s only giving up a .299 wOBA to that side of the plate with a 37.5% K rate. Let’s keep an eye on the Tampa lineup before making the final call.
Aaron Sanchez – Everyone’s favorite chef personality takes the hill again tonight and Sanchez isn’t exactly cooking up the strikeouts at a 17.5% rate. He is delivering an excellent ground ball rate at 59.3% which is sixth among starting pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP. The Rockies are also ninth in ground ball rate to righties on the road, so you can build the argument that Sanchez can ground ball them to death here. Perhaps my largest concern is his pitch counts. His high is 82 and last game he was out after just 67 pitches, despite five innings of two-hit ball.
Starting Rotation 4.27 – Out of Play
Chris Paddack – I can’t fathom paying $9,000 for him. The K rate is 21% and he’s historically been worse on the road and to lefty hitters. This year, the lefties have just a 15.4% K rate and there is likely to be six in the Arizona lineup. They also are just average in K rate and if that wasn’t enough, the D-Backs are the best team in the league against the fastball. Paddack is throwing it over 67% of the time so far with a .360 xwOBA.
Corey Kluber – The Klubot appears to be broken with a 6.43 FIP and a 5.91 xFIP. The K rate is just barely 19% and the walk rate is over 15%, scary ratios to pair up. LHH have a .321 wOBA while the RHH have a .442 wOBA, 2.89 HR/9, and just a 15.6% K rate. Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Maikel Franco, and Ryan Mountcastle all have an ISO of at least .200 against righty cutters which is one of the main two pitches for Kluber.
Trevor Williams – The righty for the Cubs is a heavy four-seam pitcher that doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters. Six of the eight projected Braves hitters have an ISO of at least .200 and a wOBA of at least .300 against righty fastballs. Atlanta is also fourth-lowest in ground ball rate to RHP, which is going to be an issue for Williams.
Adrian Houser – I view him as very similar to Sanchez but he’s more expensive for a lower K rate and a higher ground ball rate. Houser leads all starters in ground ball rate but has a paltry 7% swinging-strike rate with a CSW at 19.1%. At that point, let’s save the $700.
Jeff Hoffman – He’s been solid when he’s not pitching in Coors Field, as tends to happen. I still don’t have a lot of interest in playing someone with a wOBA over .305 to each side of the plate against the Dodgers. He throws the fastball about 55% of the time and the Dodgers are third-best in baseball against that pitch.
Michael Wacha – He does have a 25.3% K rate but man he just hasn’t put much together outside of the one game against the Yankees. One of the biggest issues for him is he’s getting smacked by RHP to the tune of a .370 wOBA, OPS approaching .900, and a 2.08 HR/9. Oakland is predominantly righty hitters, so this start doesn’t scream out as a good one.
David Peterson – A lefty against the Red Sox is a tough sell no matter what. Peterson has a HR/9 over 2.00, and it gets worse to RHH at 2.61. They also have a .363 wOBA and Peterson throws the fastball 56% of the time. Boston sits sixth against that pitch and inside the top 10 in our offensive categories to lefties this year.
Carlos Martinez – The FIP is 4.10 contrasted with the 6.00 ERA for Martinez, but there’s no disguising the 14.3% K rate or the swinging-strike rate under 10%. RHH have a 1.54 HR/9 while LHH only whiff 9.8% of the time against Martinez. That’s not ideal when you’re pitching to this Phillies lineup.
Jose Urena – I don’t think I want to use White Sox hitters all that much, as they lead the league in ground ball rate to righties. Urena is generating a 53.2% ground ball rate and is better to RHH with a .205 wOBA. He should face six in the White Sox lineup, but don’t be afraid of a lefty stack since he gives up a .357 average and a .394 wOBA to that side of the plate.
Tommy Milone – The Nationals are second in wOBA to LHP and I’m simply not buying that Milone suddenly has a 14.4% swinging-strike rate to go with a 31% CSW. RHH have a .343 wOBA and Milone hasn’t exceeded three innings so far.
Mike Foltynewicz – The Angels are fully healthy and dangerous, not to mention Folty is sitting on a 6.78 FIP and a 3.27 HR/9. Lefties especially have gotten to him with a .462 wOBA but even the righties have a 2.25 HR/9. LA isn’t striking out much, only at 23.2% and they are 14th against the fastball which Folty is throwing over 60% of the time.
Merrill Kelly – The D-Backs righty sports a 13.7% K rate, 5.19 FIP, 46.1% hard-hit rate, and has never had a swinging-strike rate over 9.8%. That’s bad news when you’re facing the Padres.
Garrett Richards – He has more walks than strikeouts, a 5.74 FIP, 6.26 xFIP, and a .331 wOBA to lefty hitters. Righties have even more success with a .382 mark and this is a fairly easy pass.
Jose Quintana – The lefty for the Angels hasn’t pitched as bad as the 9.00 would lead you to believe. He did just face this Rangers offense for 21.7 DK points but I have a hard time chasing that. I suppose games log watchers may make him popular but Texas is 15th against the fastball, which Quintana is throwing 55% of the time. RHH have a .380 wOBA when facing Quintana this season.
Daniel Castano – This man has two strikeouts in 10 IP. Can’t do it, can’t win with him.
Chi Chi Gonzalez – You can’t be happy to see a 12.7%/11.1% K/BB rate, nor a 1.47 WHIP. The biggest issue for Gonzalez is the .340 wOBA to LHH and the .314 average. The San Francisco lineup boasts a lot of lefties and I’ll pass, even though Chi Chi has a career 4.87 ERA outside of Coors.
Marco Gonzales – The 6.10 FIP backs up the 6.04 ERA so far, and the HR/9 has exploded to 2.42. Gonzales has seen his CSW decline from 29.8% last year to 24.9% this year, a sizable dip. RHH have crushed him so far with a .472 wOBA, .328 average, and a 3.77 HR/9. Houston can throw out a ton of righty hitters and they could shape up as a great stack tonight.
Bruce Zimmermann – The struggles to righties have been well-documented for the Yanks, but Zimmermann is a lefty and they’re much more towards league average against lefties. Zimmermann has just a 16.7% K rate, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .365 wOBA to righty hitters. Both the FIP and xFIP are over 5.45 to that side of the plate as well.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
