Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.24
The Saturday slate is chock full of MLB goodness and we’re split into a seven-game slate in the afternoon and a six-game slate in the evening. That means we’ll be breaking down the afternoon slate and going with the notes-based approach for the evening. With a split slate to go over in the Starting Rotation 4.24, let’s not waste time and dig in to find the path to green screens!
Starting Rotation 4.24 – Afternoon
Freddy Peralta ($9,600 DK/$8,000 FD)
We’ll start with the good for Peralta. He’s sitting third in K rate in the majors behind Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes. We absolutely like that, and the swinging strike rate is a career-high 16.7% to this point of the season. His slider continues to be a very strong weapon, as it has racked up 15 of 31 strikeouts for Peralta so far. It’s sporting a 56.5% whiff rate and a .181 xwOBA, not to mention it is the fifth-ranked slider in all of baseball. There is plenty to love about a pitcher who’s only 24 years old and is becoming a strikeout artist before our eyes. Pitches like this shouldn’t generate a swing –
That is not to say the profile doesn’t have some pretty glaring issues as well. For starters, this is going to be the third time in four starts that Peralta has seen the Cubs. That’s a lot in a very short amount of time. We also have to note the fly ball rate of 62.1% which leads the league among starters. The BABIP and strand rate would also lead us to believe regression is coming, since those rates check-in at .222 and 93.4%, respectively. For context within Peralta, his career averages are .293 and 68.6%. Those are pretty large gaps as is the 2.00 ERA compared to a 3.54 xFIP. The best thing for Peralta would be a righty-heavy lineup from the Cubs and they are projected for six. His splits to righties include a 55.9% K rate, 1.63 xFIP, and just a 1.04 WHIP. I would prefer to use him in GPP only, but we’ll see what the projected ownership says. There’s a lot of worries for a pitcher this expensive.
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,900 DK/$8,500 FD)
I’m a little nervous writing up Eovaldi but this spot looks phenomenal for him. He’s a heavy fastball pitcher and the Mariners are dead last against that pitch. On top of that, Seattle is 10th in K rate to righty pitching at over 25%. As a team, they’re also below average in wOBA, OPS, and average. Eovaldi is sitting at a 25.5% K rate so far this season and backs it up with a 17.7% swinging-strike rate and a 32.3% CSW.
Eovaldi’s strikeouts are spread out through his pitch mix but the fastball does lead with nine. Every pitch has a whiff rate over 25% so far and the FIP of 1.70 compared to the 3.04 ERA says Eovaldi might be a hair unlucky so far. It’s a wonder anyone hits him since they have about 0.4 seconds to decide what these pitches are –
There could be some concern with the projected lineup as the Mariners should have up to six righties. That side of the plate does have a better success rate with a .256 average, .289 wOBA, and a .372 slug. However, Eovaldi balances that out with a 28.9% K rate and a massive 72.4% ground ball rate. I wouldn’t say the trust factor is there throughout his career, but Eovaldi should be fairly popular today and I’m likely to follow suit.
Marcus Stroman ($8,500 DK)
He isn’t available on the FD side and I’m not always a fan of him at this price but Stroman does intrigue me. It’s a very rare time for a pitcher to be in this article at this price with a 15.1% K rate. It fascinates me that a pitcher with this kind of goodies doesn’t whiff a lot of hitters –
The lack of strikeouts are a bit worrisome but Stroman has been producing fantasy points at a high clip through his first three starts and one came in Coors Field. Stroman gets things done by generating ground balls and he’s just under a 60% mark on the season. It’s easier to live with the hard contact of 39.7% when the ball doesn’t get into the air. It’s a good matchup against the Nationals as well since they are ninth in ground ball rate as a team.
Going by FanGraphs rating, Stroman has the third-ranked fastball and the second-ranked cutter in MLB. That is NOT what I was expecting at all. What really could work for Stroman is the Washington lineup. Sure, they may not strike out a lot at just 21.4% but they should be righty-heavy with five and then the pitcher spot. Stroman has obliterated the right side of the plate with a .138 wOBA, .143 average, zero walks, and a 17.1% K rate. When he gets a ton of ground balls, he can go deeper into games and rack up outs and points even with 3-5 strikeouts in a start.
Michael Pineda ($8,100 DK/$9,500 FD)
There is certainly some concern that the Pirates (yes, the Pirates) rank so well against the secondary pitches for Pineda. It’s not enough to knock me off Pineda completely though. The Bucks were almost no-hit last night and Pineda has been on point so far through three starts. He’s racked up a 25.4% K rate and the fastball has done the damage so far for the strikeouts at 10 of his 17. That’s a reverse from when he pitched last season when the slider was the main strikeout pitch. It had a 46.2% whiff rate last season while it only has a 37.8% whiff rate this year. With the velocity and movement basically identical, that makes me think he even has a little more room for strikeout upside.
His fastball is in the top 15 in the league, which is pretty interesting. That’s his most-used pitch by a wide margin and it’s the pitch that the Pirates are the worst against. Neither side of the plate has a wOBA over .218 so far so the lineup doesn’t concern me that much here. I will say that the left side whiffs at a 20.7% rate and has a 1.23 HR/9 and the Buccos could have five in the lineup. Pittsburgh is still striking out over 23% of the time but the ceiling has a small question around it. At the same time, his 35.2% CSW is fifth in the league. I do prefer him on DK at the salary rather than paying the highest price over on FD.
Matthew Boyd ($7,900 DK/$8,400 FD)
Of all the picks here, this one feels the likeliest to bite me squarely in the backside for Starting Rotation 4.24. I have to give Boyd some serious props for his start through four turns. He’s faced arguably three of the tougher teams to lefty pitching in the Astros, Twins, and the A’s. Two of them are in the top-eight in wOBA and Houston missed half their team for a bit, so that’s misleading. Kansas City ranks 15th so far and maybe Boyd can keep the magic going. His K rate is just 18.1% and the Royals whiff at a bottom-five rate to lefties, so that is a concern as far as ceiling. However, his barrel rate is only 3.9% so far and that’s far lower than the 7.3% career rate. I feel like that K rate has room to grow since he’s generating a 30.5% CSW.
When we look at Boyd’s profile, it’s a little tough to peg one factor that has led to his success. His change and slider are both under a .260 wOBA and the changeup especially has seen a big shift. Both of those pitches were over a .325 mark last season and the fastball also saw a .433 mark. This year, even that pitch is under .300. The velocity is the same but Boyd is throwing it less and mixing in that slider and change more. It’s led to much better results from all three pitches, perhaps making him a little less predictable. Goodness knows the slider can be nasty, even if this one is last season –
All of his strikeouts except for one have come off those three pitches. He’s the pick I feel the least safe with but we cannot ignore him any longer.
Starting Rotation 4.24 – Evening
The San Diego Padres offense isn’t one we like to attack generally, but I’m not sure if you can avoid playing Trevor Bauer tonight. This pitching slate is gross, to say the least. He’s very expensive but he’s sporting a lot of metrics that look like his 2020 season when he took home the Cy Young for the NL. The K rate is 37.5%, the WHIP is 0.62, the hard contact is 28.8%, and the 33.7% CSW is 10th in the league. The Padres aren’t a big strikeout team but they are 16th in OPS and 26th in ISO so far. There simply isn’t a pitcher on this slate that matches the upside for Bauer on paper. It doesn’t hurt when you can dial up 97 MPH –
Blake Snell is on the other side of the game but he has yet to make it out of the fifth inning. I’d rather attack the Padres offense ahead of the Dodgers, although they haven’t dominated the lefties as we expected so far. They are 23rd or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ to this point.
Considering there is another Coors Game in the Starting Rotation 4.24 and the Atlanta Braves are taking on Madison Bumgarner, we need some style of salary saver for the SP2 on DK to afford some big bats. Look no further than Kevin Gausman. He’s scored at least 13 DK in every start and the lowest point total came when he gave up five earned. When you can score 13 giving up five runs, that’s not too shabby. The splitter is a significant weapon, especially when paired with his changeup –
Gausman sports a 22.5% K rate to go against the Marlins and their 10th worst K rate to righty pitching. Miami is also 26th to the fastball and Gausman is primarily a fastball/splitter pitcher. He’s too cheap for a potential 20 DK points, and the success Alex Wood found last night will lead the field to him as well I would have to assume.
I’m not sure how long the list is of other pitchers I’m interested in. I’m usually driving the Pablo Lopez bandwagon, but he has a career ERA over 6.00 on the road. San Francisco is a great park for pitchers, but Lopez has a .364 wOBA to lefties in his career on the road. San Francisco is rife with lefties and I’d honestly rather stack their cheap lefty hitters as compliments to a big-name stack.
Aaron Nola is honestly sort of intriguing even in Denver. I do have major concerns about his curve/changeup combo which accounts for almost 48% of his pitch mix. Don’t get me wrong at all, the curve is gorgeous when it’s doing what Nola wants it to –
Those aren’t pitches that always do well in Coors. Still, the Colorado lineup continues to be very questionable. They hit for power with the third-highest ISO at home against righty pitching but they also are dead last in wRC+ with a 24% K rate and a .215 average. Nola is sporting a K rate over 27% on the season, but that’s an MME-style play in my eyes.
This is the style of slate where Chris Bassitt checks in as an option. There’s not much that stands out on the surface with a 19.6% K rate, 1.34 WHIP, and a 10.8% swinging-strike rate. I suppose it could be worse than having these pitches at your disposal –
He’s not a bad pitcher but he’s not someone that we’re running to play in our lineups. What does make him interesting is the matchup because Baltimore has not hit righties well in the least so far. They are 28th in average, 29th in OBP and wRC+, 19th in ISO, and dead last in OPS and wOBA. The K rate is spiked inside the top five as well so if you’re hunting for bats and getting gutsy with a Bauer fade, the Gausman/Bassitt combo could be the ticket.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.24 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
