Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Friday! We finally made it. Check out the FanDuel MLB 4/23 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. As is customary for a Friday, the main slate is absolutely massive, with all but two teams playing in a total of 14 games. The lone exception is the Brewers and Cubs, who are playing earlier at 2:20. This main slate locks at 7:05, and with so many options to choose from, this article will help you narrow down your player pool.
The Aces
A. I could write up deGrom here, but there are a few reasons that I am going to go a different route: deGrom is $12,500 with a game in Coors Field on the slate, he will be the highest owned pitcher, and we have other options. Of course deGrom is the best play on the slate in a vacuum, but you do not need me to tell you that, so I will look at a few other under the radar plays for tonight.
Sonny Gray ($8,100) is a pitcher that very few will roster on a night with so many aces taking the mound. I like going this route because it is not only contrarian, but it will also allow you to roster more expensive bats. Gray has the 4th highest strikeout rate on this slate, yet is only the 9th highest-priced pitcher! That screams value to me, and if Sony is able to limit the walks that he deals to the Cardinals tonight, he should be able to easily pay off this price tag.
B. This pitcher is not quite as under the radar, but he will still carry significantly lower ownership than deGrom, and a cheaper price tag, while still boasting serious upside. Of course I am talking about Tyler Glasnow ($11,200), who will be facing off against Steven Matz and the Blue Jays on Friday night.
Glasnow is clearly the second best pitcher on the night, and he could easily outscore deGrom. That alone makes him appealing to me, because the price difference is much larger than the difference between the skill of the two arms up top. Glasnow owns a 39% strikeout rate, a 2.85 SIERA, and an elite (low) hard contact rate allowed. I will take the massive ownership and price discount by fading deGrom tonight.
C. This final arm is not for the faint of heart, as he is pitching in the hitters paradise of Coors Field. Hear me out here. FanDuel has made the price on Vincent Velasquez ($5,800) so insanely low, that I cannot help but have interest. Many will be surprised to hear this, but Velasquez is right behind deGrom and Glasnow with the third highest strikeout rate on the slate.
While the obvious downside is that Velasquez is pitching in Coors, his price and ownership are essentially non-existent. This Rockies team took a massive hit losing Arenado, and we may just have enough strikeout upside to offset any potential homers that this thin Coors air forces VV to surrender. I love Velasquez as a contrarian GPP play on Friday night.
The Bases
A. As a Red Sox fan, this first section is going to be tough to write, but one of the best teams to stack on the night is the Seattle Mariners. Until Chris Sale comes back, this Red Sox rotation is going to have one or two gaping holes in it, and Martin Perez is one of said holes. The total for this game has been steadily climbing throughout the day, and I would expect that to keep happening.
While the Mariners have struggled a bit recently, dropping a goose egg in two of their last five games, their bats came to life at the end of the game last night to shut down the Red Sox hopes of a late game victory. Perez is the proud owner of the second worst SIERA on the entire day of 5.28, along with a below average strikeout rate, high walk rate, and low ground ball rate. The Jays should be able to knock him around early and get to this suspect bullpen before 5 innings are gone.
B. While I will be looking to fade deGrom tonight, the same cannot be said for the NY Mets bats. The Mets will be taking swings against Erick Fedde, who is one of the biggest gas cans starting for an MLB team. The Mets are listed as massive favorites tonight and although they disappointed last night against the Cubs, I do not expect that to be the case tonight.
Erick Fedde has a SIERA that is not far behind that of Martin Perez, sitting at 5.21, which is #notgood. He has the second lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher on the slate and he walks opposing batters in bunches. The only decent metric Fedde has is his ground ball rate, but targeting Mets bats with high fly ball rates will more than neutralize his one “strength”.
C. The last team that I will be looking to mix into stacks tonight is the Atlanta Braves. The Diamondbacks will be starting Luke Weaver tonight, who does not fall into gas can territory, but some of his pitching metrics show that he has the ability to get blown up.
Weaver owns a mediocre 4.35 SIERA, but his ERA is significantly higher at 5.90. This shows that Weaver and his 23% strikeout rate could be due for some positive regression, but I do not think that will happen against this Braves squad tonight. Especially if Ronald Acuna is back in the lineup, this Braves team is dangerous. They will be licking their chops to get a piece of Weaver’s 32% groundball rate and 41% hard contact rate. That GB rate is far too low and the HC rate is far too high for Weaver to keep the ball in the park against some of these powerful Atlanta bats.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
