Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.17
Saturday brings us the normal split slate and FD woke up and chose violence on the early slate. It’s more or less unplayable at just three games even though they had other games to choose from in the window of start times within the three games. With that said, we’re going to just do some notes for the Early slate and then break down the night slate. DK has the Early at six games and the evening is five so they’re pretty close. We may as well make the full breakdown worth it for as many folks as possible in Starting Rotation 4.17 and try to find those green screens!
Note – This version is going to be slightly compressed due to some travel overnight. I’ll be around in Discord to expand on anything needed and set cores and answer questions through the day!
Starting Rotation – Early
Pitchers Of Interest
Sonny Gray – I’m a little skittish on Gray making his season debut, but with the news he won’t be faced with a pitch count, it does calm the fears a little bit. Gray inherits a pretty nice spot as well. Cleveland is no higher than 16th against the fastball/curve mix that made up roughly 75% of his repertoire in 2020. His fastball was split at about 25% of the four-seam and 25% of the sinker variety. Cleveland is also striking out at the fifth-highest rate in baseball to righty pitching at 28.6%. Only the Cubs have a lower wOBA and OPS so far as well. Gray has boasted a K rate of at least 29% 231.1 IP so on a slate where the pitching isn’t spectacular, I’m willing to go here in cash. We’ll see if projected ownership reflects the same.
Cash Option
Steven Matz – I’m going to steal my write-up from yesterday since it’s the exact same matchup after a postponement –
I’m not in love with the salaries because I’m not sure Matz has the ceiling to go with it. Still, he’s been excellent so far this year and he even navigated the Angels lineup, which can hit lefties some nights (although not that night when I played him). I’ll go back to him here as his sinker has been his go-to pitch so far. It’s only allowed a .107 average, .285 xwOBA, and a .285 xSLG to this point with eight of the 13 strikeouts. Kansas City has a strong rating against fastballs, but they are very top-heavy. Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, and Michael A. Taylor are the only ones with a 1.0 rating or higher. The other great metric in Matz’s favor is his ground ball rate.
If we’re not totally sold on the strikeout upside, we need ground outs and Matz is at a 55.2% rate so far. It just so happens that the leading ground ball team to lefty pitching are these Royals, which is fantastic news for Matz. They only whiff about 21% of the time. The biggest concern is likely the 19.4% K rate to RHH for Matz so far since the Royals are very righty-heavy in their lineup. It’s the main reason I won’t go there in cash but Matz has upside potential even if the path is a little less clear.
GPP Option
Casey Mize – So, a little about me. I’m a sucker for young pitchers with pedigree. I’m willing to give them chance after chance, regardless of it working to not. Mike absolutely falls under that category at just 23 years old and a former first-overall pick. Realistically, Mize has 39.1 IP at the major league level so he’s still quite the mystery. So far through 11 IP, we’ve seen some encouraging signs. The K rate hasn’t moved at 19.6% but the walk rate is down to 8.7% and the WHIP is down from 1.48 to 1.18.
His ground ball rate has taken a massive leap from 38.6% to 62.5%. It is a touch concerning to see a 6.4% swinging-strike rate, which is very low. Mize does throw a four-seam or sinker 45% of the time and Oakland is 26th against fastballs. There should be five righties in the lineup and they only have a .234 wOBA so far along with an 80% (!) ground ball rate. Mize is anything but safe but there’s an upside at the salary of under $7,000.
GPP Option
Huascar Ynoa – Atlanta couldn’t have asked for much more from Ynoa to start the season. Through 12 IP, he’s rocking a 2.15 xFIP, 34.9% K rate, 4.7% walk rate, and a 57.7% ground ball rate. The Cubs have long been an offense to fear and maybe they get there at some point this season but that hasn’t been the case at all this season. Against righty pitching, the Cubs are dead last in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. As if that somehow weren’t enough, they have the highest K rate of any team at 30% even. Ynoa’s price tag is still under $7,000 and feels like a total bargain on the early slate. I could be misreading but I think he’ll be chalky.
Cash Option
Starting Rotation – Late
I’m going to approach this a little bit differently today. We have some big names on the night slate including Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, and Zack Greinke before a fairly steep drop-off. I’m going to do a quicker breakdown of why those three could be in some dangerous spots and/or just not worth the price and then talk about who I like as well.
Kershaw – Most nights, Kershaw is going to be a primary option, especially when there are only 10 pitchers to choose from. Maybe he still rolls in as the highest-owned pitcher on the slate but the matchup is quite difficult. San Diego missed star Fernando Tatis for most of the year so far and still ranks sixth in average, fifth in OBP, seventh in OPS, sixth in wOBA, and seventh in wRC+. Kershaw looks outstanding in the metrics for the most part with no home runs given up, a 1.3% walk rate, and a fly ball rate under 31%. The largest concern at a five-digit salary is a K rate that’s barely over 21%.
The Friars have six hitters with a wOBA of at least .397 this year and Tatis isn’t even one of them at this point. Granted, three of those hitters are LHH in Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer, and Jake Cronenworth but that’s still a concern. Kershaw is giving up a .320 wOBA to RHH with a 1.46 WHIP to the right side of the plate, which includes Tatis, Manny Machado, and Wil Meyers. Myers also happens to be the third-highest rated slider hitter in baseball, which is the primary pitch for Kershaw. This start could deteriorate and Kershaw could be way overblown for his price tag.
Darvish – It’s not going to be often we use pitchers against the Dodgers, either. LA is whiffing at a 19.6% rate to righty pitching which is the second-lowest rate in baseball…next to the Padres. Perhaps my largest concerns with Darvish tonight are the 2.53 HR/9 to lefties he has right now with the 5.10 FIP to the side of the plate. That’s not what you’re looking for against the Dodgers, nor do you want a fly ball rate over 45% to each side of the plate. The K rate is also down 4% to 27.1% which is still very solid but not as spectacular as last year. We also have to note that the barrel rate is 10.6% and it’s never been above 9% in his career. To top it off, the swinging strike rate and CSW are also both down about 3%. This isn’t really the spot that screams to play Darvish at his usual salary.
Greinke – The field could just turn to Greinke but can the man strike anyone out? His K rate is all the way down to 13.1% on the season with a 5.63 FIP. If you just took the name away there’s no reason you would want to play him, even against the Seattle lineup. Greinke is also getting taken out of the yard at a 2.04 HR/9 which can ruin a day in a hurry if there’s no strikeout upside. His velocity hasn’t been anything special for about three years and it continues to be 88 MPH for the fastball. I know that he’s got a full arsenal but it’s just not easy to survive with 88 MPH “heat”. The swinging strike rate has bumped down from 10.6% to 7.8% and the CSW is 27.2%. Seattle’s offense is top-eight in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging to righty pitching so far.
Alright, so we’ve outlined why all three of the top starters could fail tonight and why there are legitimate fears. Last I looked, we still need to roster two pitchers on DK so where are we going? Well, I’m very likely to eschew cash tonight and just go GPP. Having said that, let’s rundown the targets.
Dane Dunning – So remember when I said I’m willing to take chances with young pitchers with some pedigree? Dunning is pushing the boundaries of that at 26 but he is a former first-round pick and only has 43 IP in the bigs. Through his first nine this year, he’s posting some serious metrics. The K rate is 32.4% with a walk rate of 5.9% to go with it. At least at the start of the season, his sinker has been the biggest reason. He’s throwing it 66% of the time compared to 39.4% last year and it’s recorded eight of his 11 strikeouts so far.
It does concern me slightly that his sinker doesn’t look any different than last year. It’s the same velocity and the movement is within two inches in either direction. Baltimore is top 12 against fastballs but they also have the fourth-highest K rate to righty pitching so far at 28.7%. Dunning could be faced with five lefties and that could be a boon for him. He’s controlled the left side of the plate to the tune of a 26.7% K rate, 1.30 FIP, and a .169 wOBA. For the price, he really fits into a high-upside category.
I‘m really only looking toward one other pitcher on this slate and it’s Chris Flexen. Some may turn to Matt Shoemaker but he continues to feature frightening metrics under the surface like an 18.8% barrel rate and a FIP over 5.00. Flexen, on the other hand, has had one good start and one poor, and the poor one came against Minnesota so it’s understandable. The Astros offense is still one I’m interested to pick on while they are short-handed. The curveball has been one of his better strikeout pitches with four and has only allowed a .149 wOBA and a 44.4% whiff rate. The Astros rank 22nd against that particular pitch.
Flexen has been a hair better to LHH so far with a 2.50 FIP and a 25% K rate and he should face up to five tonight. The ground ball rate is also higher to lefties at 46.7% so that helps as well. My strategy for tonight is to enter a 3-max GPP and attack pitching in three ways. The first is to just spend as little as possible, with Flexen and Dunning and build higher-end stacks. After that, I’m looking to pair one of Dunning or Flexen with one of Kershaw or Darvish. Just because I have concerns doesn’t mean a pitcher’s duel can’t break out tonight and in a three max, I want exposure. It’s a tough slate pitching-wise so be smart and let’s ride!
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
