Starting Rotation 4.15

Starting Rotation 4.15

Thursday brings us a split slate and we’re going to change things up just a bit. In this article, the focus is going to be on the early slate since it has six games and the evening has five. On top of that, the evening pitching is among the worst we’ve had this season. It’s a fairly hideous mix so let’s stick with the full breakdown for early in the Starting Rotation 4.15 and attack the late slate with some picks! 

Starting Rotation 4.15 – Early Targets

Note – FD has inexcusably left off the Mets game that starts at 12:10. Apparently, those 10 minutes between the 12:20 start time left the Mets game in an alternate dimension like when Ozzie Smith was in The Simpsons. The bad news is they also left off the Seattle game which at least in fairness is a seven-inning game. It’s only a four-game slate on FD but at least you only need one pitcher. 

Since the Mets and Jacob deGrom are not on both sites (and are already being threatened by rain), we won’t go over him in the cash section. On DK, deGrom is a lock if that game plays for cash. It’s not a discussion and he easily carries the highest ceiling of the slate as well. We know deGrom is one of the best three pitchers on the planet, don’t overthink it for cash. 

Starting Rotation 4.15

Lance Lynn ($9,400 DK/$10,200 FD)

Lynn is such an interesting pitcher. He literally throws three variations of the fastball and… that’s it, that’s the list. It seems crazy that a 33-year old who tops out at about 94 MPH goes out and shoves every fifth day but here we are. Cleveland has been whiffing a lot against righty pitching, sitting at 26.1% so far. They are also under league average against the fastballs Lynn throws so that’s a checkmark for him. It’s another check mark for him that he’s sporting his highest K rate in his career at 31.5%. Sure, that likely comes down some but it’s still great to see in the early going. His swinging-strike rate is up 2.6% and that’s followed by a 2% increase in his CSW. Keep giving the Dad Bod Crowd a hero, Mr. Lynn.

The other big metric that attracts me to Lynn is the fact he’s owned the left side of the plate since the start of last season. In 2020, lefties only had a .182 average and .239 wOBA to go with a 1.06 HR/9. This season, those numbers are even lower at .143, .127, and 0.00. Surely they will creep up a little but Cleveland should roll out 5-6 lefties today and they just got no-hit. Lynn utilizes the four-seam to LHH the most with 41 of 74 pitches thrown so far. He’s generated a 35.1% whiff rate and has 10 strikeouts on it. Eddie Rosario and Jose Ramirez are the only lefties that rate well against the fastball and Lynn has plenty of safety and potential upside today.

Ian Anderson ($8,000 DK/$8,600 FD)

In a perfect world, I would prefer to save Anderson for GPP. Brian and I joke about how much I love him and I think he is super talented, but 42.2 IP with a 9.4% walk rate doesn’t make you a cash play. The reasons Anderson still ranks as a cash play today are because we may not have access to deGrom and even if we do, pairing deGrom and Lynn in cash is pricey. This looks like a fairly elite spot for pitch data since Anderson is leaning on the fastball/change combo about 75% of the time. His change is nasty, already ranked as the sixth-best in FanGraphs ratings among starters. The 38.7% whiff rate is nice to see and that pitch and the curve are carrying his swinging strike rate of 11.3%. 

Now, the bad news (and a reason I’m not thrilled to have him in cash) is his fastball is getting smacked through two starts. Teams have hit it for a .333 average, .480 wOBA, and a .509 xwOBA. If he doesn’t get that under control, it’s going to be an issue. Last year the fastball had a .179 average and .240 xwOBA over 147 pitches. That’s going to be a big key in this start and the velocity is identical, so that’s not an issue. If the fastball is working, the combo with changeup is lethal.

The other aspect to note is his horizontal movement has lost about 3.5 inches this year so it’s possible without the same movement, hitters are tracking it better. Anderson still sports a 31% K rate overall so I don’t want to be super harsh, but it’s a small concern headed into this start. I’m still happy to play him against a Marlins offense that whiffed nine times against Charlie Morton and has a 25.9% K rate to RHP on the season. 

Honorable Mention – I don’t see any past those three I trust to play as this slate is tough for pitchers as well. Let’s hit some cliff notes for why I have some unease with other options. 

Zach Eflin – faces the same weather concerns that deGrom has and only has a 20% K rate. 

Chris Paddack – The righty is barely reputation at this point and on the road, so that’s a hard sell at that price. I actually don’t mind some cheap Bucco bats like Phillip Evans and Colin Moran to get some bigger bats in the lineup. 

Mitch Keller – He’s still throwing the fastball about 50% of the time so far and the Padres have three hitters (Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth, and Wil Meyers) inside the top 45 in fastball ranks. Perhaps if they throw out a getaway day lineup, you could talk me into Keller since he does feature a 30.6% K rate thus far. Even then, the Friars are 29th in K rate to righty pitching so we’d need a poor lineup. 

Aaron Civale – Hard contact, fly-ball rate, HR/9, and his FIP are all up from last year combined with a lower K rate and CSW rate. That’s not exactly what I’m looking for against the White Sox. 

Trevor Rogers – Like Keller, I could see attacking a potentially weaker Braves lineup if they roll that one out. Rogers has been whiffing everyone early, sitting at 40% for his K rate through 10 IP. The walk rate is insane at 15% and the fly ball rate is worrisome at 47.1% but his fastball has been insane so far. It’s up to 95 MPH, a bump of 2 MPH from 2020, and has 12 of his 16 strikeouts. It’s also generating a 51.1% whiff rate and he’s tied with Gerrit Cole in FanGraphs rating on that pitch, ninth in the majors. He has held righties to a .183 wOBA so far so he’s definitely the wild card of the early slate. Atlanta was average in ISO and wOBA last year to LHP and have a K rate over 32% this year, albeit on 49 plate appearances. The fastball has some kind of life and Atlanta is currently 30th against that pitch –

Gas Can of the Slate – The Red Sox will be putting Garrett Richards on the mound and it’s hard to see that ending well for him. He’s gotten crushed through seven IP so far and the RHH have a 3.86 HR/9, .499 wOBA, and 3.00 WHIP against him. Lefties as well have gotten to him for a .401 wOBA and the Twins lineup looks dangerous. It would be nice to have Byron Buxton back after a hammy tweak yesterday, as he and Nelson Cruz both have wOBA’s over .500 and ISO’s over .550 so far. They also are the best fastball/slider hitters on the team, which Richards is using almost 85% of the time. 

Past those two, we can round it out with Luis Arrez and Max Kepler, Both hitters drop a bit against the pitch mix, but they also have at least a .190 ISO and a .350 wOBA against righties. With Richards looking like a gas can to this point, Minnesota looks appealing as things stand. They did play two yesterday, so the lineup is very important here. 

Starting Rotation 4.15 – Late Targets

So this slate will be strictly GPP for me. Like yesterday’s early slate, we have enough games but Dk especially the pitching is some kind of scary. I’m not willing to wade into cash games when I’m just trying to avoid the grenades that lurk around every corner here. 

Fun fact, no pitcher outside of Julio Urias averages over 13.1 DK points on the night slate. That’s not a great start and I would assume pushes Urias to chalky status. He is similar to Anderson in that his fastball has gotten mashed so far, giving up a .409 average, .517 xwOBA, .788 xSLG, and just a 17.6% whiff rate. When you’re throwing that pitch 50% of the time, there is serious danger at this salary. The Rockies are only striking out 22.6% of the time to lefties through 133 plate appearances which are eighth-most so far. Urias is holding RHH to a .221 wOBA but this spot is not that great, especially for an 18% K rate at a five-digit salary. Urias has also scuffled with LHH through 13 hitters (very small sample noted) so don’t be afraid of Charlie Blackmon in GPP. He held a .398 wOBA last year to LHP. 

So it’s pretty clear that I’m not a fan of Urias tonight, but I still need two pitchers on DK. I’m looking at Rich Hill and there’s not a question about it, I am ready for him to ruin me again. Hill is spectacularly up and down in my personal experience but this is an elite spot for him. Coming off six shutout innings against the Yankees have left him expensive, but it kind of is what it is on this slate. The 41-year old lefty features a fastball/curve combo over 85% of the time and Texas is 29th against the curve. This is a couple of seasons old now, but illustrates how evil Hill’s curve is capable of being –

That’s a good thing because Hill has 10 of his strikeouts with the fastball, so I’d like the Rangers to be worse to his “secondary” pitch. Hill has a 7.20 ERA but the xERA is 2.81 and the xFIP is 3.65. The K rate is very solid at 27.5% with a 33.8% CSW. What really interests me is the 25th ranked ISO for the Rangers coupled with a 29.6% K rate. Hill can get smacked any given start, but this one lines up as one he can hang 20 DK. 

So who do we find for our SP2? Well, you’re not going to like the answer. I will almost never attack this team but Jakob Junis might make some sense against the Blue Jays. Before Ghost throws something at me from North of the border, hear me out. Junis only has one start but he’s added a cutter this season. So far, he’s struck out six of his nine hitters with it and it’s carrying a .251 xwOBA. He’s only throwing it 23.9% of the time but he’s using his four-seam 13% more often this year at 59.1%. 

The 36% K rate is not here to stay since he only has a 20.9% K rate for his career but the 57.1% ground ball rate is eye-opening. Junis has yet to give up a barrel, which is impressive through seven IP. Both the swinging strike rate and CSW are up 3-4% and the Jays do whiff over 25% of the time. They are also bottom-five to the cutter and bottom 10 to the four-seam. A Hill and Junis combo, what could possibly go wrong for the night slate in Starting Rotation 4.15??

Starting Rotation 4.15 Betting Section 

Free Bet 

Record – 9-8

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