Starting Rotation 4.12

Starting Rotation 4.12

I’m excited to put Sunday in the rearview mirror and get into this slate because we have multiple big-name aces and a handful of others that could rack up the fantasy points. Even writing the night before, I can tell you I’m going to have at least one lineup with double aces on the mound. Let’s get into this slate and figure out what directions we need to take in Starting Rotation 4.12! 

Starting Rotation 4.12 – Cash Picks 

Gerrit Cole ($10,700 DK/$11,000 FD)

It’s always going to be hard to not want to lock in Cole on any given slate. He’s one of the best fantasy and real-life pitchers in baseball. His K rate is already incredible at 43.8% and it’s been the slider that has done the damage so far with 11 of his 20 strikeouts. Cole’s CSW is sitting at 35.1% which would be a career-high but it’s not exceptionally out of line with his past three seasons. With Toronto sporting a K rate over 25% so far, this is a good spot for Cole.

If there are a couple of nitpicks, they are minor. I mean, you nitpick this crazy mix –

First, he’s given up all the production to righties so far this year. They do have a .346 wOBA but his career mark is .282 and last season it was down at .250. It’s not a particularly large concern and the Jays are righty-heavy in their projected lineup with only three lefties. My other small concern is the splits between catchers. Going back to last season, Cole has been definitively worse when Gary Sanchez catches him as opposed to Kyle Higashioka. That has been the case through two starts so far in 2021. That’s not a fair comparison per se, but when 2020 splits favor Higashioka by a 2.91 ERA gap, it’s hard not to notice it. Overall, Cole is still the 1A pitcher on this slate at worst and there’s no reason not to pitch him in cash or GPP tonight. 

Tyler Glasnow ($10,400 DK/$10,700 FD)

It should probably concern opposing hitters that Glasnow isn’t even throwing his curve all that much and it’s his leading strikeout pitch. When this is your third-most used pitch, my goodness –

Seven of his 15 whiffs have come from the curve but the slider has been the story for Glasnow. It carries a 33.5% whiff rate and is seventh in FanGraphs value. The walk rate has come down as well to just 4.7% and Glasnow’s lowest walk rate was in 2019 at 6.1%. To be fair, his K rate is down a hair at 34.9% from last year but the WHIP went from 1.13 to 0.58 and the HR/9 is zero so far. 

Glasnow has been a different pitcher so far this season and even with some metrics coming down to Earth, he is formidable. The projected Texas lineup has five lefties but Glasnow has handled them with a .134 wOBA and .125 OBP through 16 hitters faced. The Rangers also whiff over 27% of the time as a team. Knowing Glasnow threw 97 pitches last game is very comforting as well since Tampa is not the most trustworthy team with starters. Glasnow is the reason I said Cole was 1A and I will have both these pitchers in the same lineup tomorrow (more in a few minutes). 

Freddy Peralta ($7,700 DK) 

This might be the craziest stat that I can find for Peralta, from mlb.com – 

Since 2018, the year that Peralta debuted, only Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, and Max Scherzer have better strikeouts per nine innings than Peralta (12.3) while pitching as many innings.

We’ve seen this Cubs offense really struggle so far as they only scored once against the Pirates again on Sunday. Peralta has already seen them once and he whiffed eight Cubs on his way to 28.3 DK points. He also threw 91 pitches, which is great to see. With Chicago striking out almost 31% so far against righty pitching, it’s impossible to not be interested here. 

It’s fair to wonder how long Peralta can survive with just two pitches but they have been electric so far. His curve has a whiff rate over 62% and the fastball isn’t far behind at about 43%. The curve is generating strikes even as it hits batters in the foot –

You certainly want the 24.1% walk rate to go back down and that is the largest concern right now. The lack of control can still hurt Peralta at any given moment. His CSW is 33.3% which is fantastic but it’s still hard to not have some small concerns. I feel like he’s the natural SP2 on DK tonight but perhaps I’m wrong. 

Honorable Mention – Zach Greinke (Cole and Glasnow just have such higher ceilings in that range)

Starting Rotation 4.12 – GPP Picks 

Sandy Alcantara ($8,500 DK/$9,500 FD)

There are two reasons Alcantara is only GPP for me. One, the Braves are just a good offense. They’ve started slow but they’ll come around. I mean, 2020 saw them rank first against the fastball so I don’t expect them to stay down at 30th very long. Secondly, this can’t possibly be the real Alcantara…can it? The K rate alone is so far outside of the career normal that I can’t buy in here yet. The first two starts of the year have seen him sport a 35.4% K rate while the career number is 19.9%. The CSW has followed suit at 34.5% after a 26.6% rate throughout his career. 

The largest noticeable differences are velocity and pitch mix. Alcantara is up by about 2 MPH on all of his main pitches, including the changeup that he’s leaning on more in 2021. The man is out here throwing 99 MPH gas up high – 

Last season he only threw it about 10% of the time and it has a 50% whiff rate and an xwOBA of .168. Both sides of the plate sit under a .195 wOBA so far in his two starts and he’s recorded 17 total strikeouts. Alcantara is just 25 so perhaps this is just a natural improvement. Even with some struggles, Atlanta is top-five in ISO so this is a dangerous spot. It could drive the ownership way down however and could be worth some risk. 

Alex Cobb ($8,400 DK/$8,400 FD)

Cobb was sort of a mixed bag in his first start, giving up three runs but also whiffing seven across six innings. That’s not the worst outing against an offense like the White Sox and his 33% CSW is interesting. The other interesting facet was he used his curve around 12% more than last year in this first start. It generated a .154 xwOBA and had a whiff rate of over 40%. It also has to be talked about that his first start featured a .412 BABIP. That helps explain the difference between his 4.50 ERA to a 2.74 xFIP. The ground ball rate of 66.7% was encouraging as well.
The Royals are a good spot to find some strikeouts as well since they are whiffing 28.9% of the time. That’s the fourth-highest rate in the league and Cobb generated a 19.6% swinging strike rate as well. Over his career, the splits have been about dead even for Cobb but he’s given up slightly less power to righties, an asset against this Royals squad. They can be a pesky lineup with ranks inside the top 12 in OPS, ISO, and wRC+ but I feel like this mid-range is going to be ignored for the most part.

Huascar Ynoa ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD)

I do wonder if Ynoa becomes the SP2 on DK in cash games since there is a big salary saving over Peralta. For now, let’s talk about why we like him and then go from there. We only have a total of 30.2 innings from Ynoa in the majors and to be honest, they haven’t been super impressive before six innings this year. However, he’s 22 years old so let’s not judge too harshly. His CSW has taken a step forward to 28% and the K rate sitting at 23.8% would be a nice jump for him as well. If he’s not going to flash gaudy strikeout numbers, we do love to see a ground ball rate of 53.3% and that’s in line with 52.6% over the major league innings so far. The one aspect I truly think we can hang the hat on is his slider. 

The pitch is ranked fourth among the league in FanGraphs rating so far, and every strikeout recorded has come from the slider. Ynoa has yet to give up a hit on it and the whiff rate is 50%. Just look at this thing go! 

Jazz Chisholm and Starling Marte are the only Miami hitters with a FanGraphs rating over 0.5 against the slider so far. With the Marlins being poor against his main pitch types, that’s a big checkmark for Ynoa. Not only does Miami whiff 26.1% as a team, but they are also 25th or worse in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Ynoa threw 68 pitches last time out so if things go well, we should expect between 80-90 this time around. For $6,000 on DK and the minimum SP price on FD, you could do a lot worse. 

Honorable Mention – Triston McKenzie – Could be caped at around 80 pitches and he’s expensive on DK

Carlos Rodon – Cleveland is top-eight in wOBA to LHP and strikes out only 16.8% despite being third in plate appearances

Gas Can of the Slate – I’m going to give two options. My plan right now is to either spend up or not spend over $7,700 on a pitcher on DK for either slot. If I take that second route, I want a big name stack and I’m looking at the Yankees. They get a returning Robbie Ray who got obliterated by RHH last year with a .425 wOBA, 2.20 WHIP, and a 2.48 HR/9. He threw a fastball and slider almost 80% of the time and DJ LeMahieu is currently leading the league in FanGraphs rating against sliders. He also sported a .432 wOBA to LHP last season, while hitters like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both had ISO’s over .230. Judge was all the way up at .360 but that trio is going to cost you significantly. It would be nice to see Clint Fraizer in the lineup to provide some relief with his .242 ISO and .884 OPS. I’d be interested in almost any RHH in the New York lineup tomorrow. 

My next target for the cheap stack also relies on a fastball and slider combo and he’s also a lefty. Madison Bumgarner has been terrible to start the season with an 11.00 ERA, 6.19 FIP, 40.6% hard contact rate, and a 2.22 WHIP. The right side of the plate has tagged him for a .430 wOBA and a .343 average, not to mention a 1.13 HR/9. Bring on the Oakland A’s who come in extremely cheap tonight. Mark Canha, Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, and Ramon Laureano are all prime targets in my eyes. Canha had a .423 wOBA last year against lefties and is the sixth-best fastball hitter in the league early. Lowrie boasts a .336 wOBA career-wise against southpaws while Chapman is over a .210 ISO and Laureano is over a .340 wOBA. There’s far too much cheap potential here to not pair up with Glasnow/Cole on the mound. 

Starting Rotation 4.12 Betting Section 

Free Bet 

Record – 7-5

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!