The highlight of the 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks could be dimmed by a nasty, blustery lady named Imelda.
The Tropical Depression Formerly Known as Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to hammer the Houston area with high winds and up to 12 inches of rain between now and Thursday. While it’s highly unlikely the weather will be a factor in Gerrit Cole’s bid for 300 strikeouts, let’s not leave everything to chance.
Cole is the best play of Wednesday’s main slate. There are five games scheduled for the afternoon, where Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard are each pitching. The daytime even features Marlins hurler Sandy Alcantara, who’s made for a great GPP option over his past five starts.
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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitcher
Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TEX
DK ($12,800), FD ($12,100)
Cole has six straight games of at least 10 strikeouts, so it’s not a question of if, but how long into the night before Cole reaches 300 Ks, making him only the third pitcher in franchise history to do so. He’s delivered at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last six starts; FanDuel users have seen Cole record at least 30 points in 14 straight outings.
Currently sitting at a 39.4% strikeout rate, Cole will have at least two more starts to get as close as possible to 40%. He’s fanned 20 Royals over 14.1 innings this season, including 11 in last Friday’s win. Over the past month, Cole has struck out a staggering 55.6% of the batters he’s faced, with his slider one of the driving forces behind the run. It’s been an increase of using his slider that has helped explode his strikeout rate to heights we didn’t think we’d see after Cole struck out over 36% in 2018.
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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers
Jake Odorizzi, MIN vs. CWS
DK ($10,600), FD ($9,300)
The Ks have come aplenty for Odorizzi when facing the White Sox, having fanned 23 over 16.1 innings. He’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks play in GPP formats, especially when you consider he’s yet to allow a homer to Pale Hose bats this season.
Odorizzi has an 0.98 HR/9 rate despite allowing a hard contact rate of 42.3% and a 44.3% fly ball rate. How the hell he’s pulled such a low HR/9 in this of all seasons is beyond me. The reduction in BB/9 from 3.83 from last season to 3.12 this year has helped carry him to two starts of at least 40 FanDuel points in his last three starts.
Aaron Civale, CLE vs. DET
DK ($9,100), FD ($8,500)
Civale has yet to allow more than two earned runs and gets a gem of a start against a Tigers team that is averaging less than four runs per game over the past week. Detroit is hitting a composite .234/.285/.363 versus average fly ball/ground ball pitchers like Civale, who has allowed just two homers in 46.2 innings of work.
I like Civale in FanDuel, as he has put up at least 30 points in five of his eight starts. You’ll also like him more considering he’s delivered a 1.06 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 17 innings when pitching at Progressive Field. At this late in the season, chances are good Civale should be able to keep his BABIP around his current .267. With a thin main slate, Civale’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks option.
Adrian Houser, MIL vs. SD
DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500)
Bah Gawd! Houser is cheap. He also falls into a wonderful matchup against a Padres offense that has hit a combined .205/.330/.373 in their past seven games. San Diego’s batters are averaging nearly 11 strikeouts in the same span, which plays well with Houser’s 9.52 K/9 rate. You can live with Houser’s 1.19 HR/9 even against the all-or-nothing Padres bats that have produced a .373 slugging percentage and .652 OPS over the past two weeks.
If he’s not whiffing batters, Houser’s 53.4% ground ball rate will keep his infielders busy. He has a pretty low 24.8% fly ball rate and does also project to flirt with 30 points at FanDuel. I’d run with Houser and load up on offense.
9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick
Tony Gonsolin, LAD vs. TB
DK ($8,700), FD ($6,600)
Gonsolin holds a .219 BABIP and continues to be a reasonable choice in GPP or Punt plays. That trend should maintain itself despite a 47% hard contact rate against and a 43.9% fly ball rate. Those trends will sooner or later walk him down.
Don’t expect the Rays to get too many line drives off of him, as Gonsolin allows just a 13.3% line drive rate. He’s obviously a better pitcher at home (.120 batting average allowed, 1.20 ERA), so while he’s not going to go too deep in games, Gonsolin should do just enough to make him a worthy punt.
