Welcome, welcome welcome to the 8/15 DFS Hitting lineup. Don’t ask why the theme of this show became stuck in my head, but my misery is now your misery as we load up on what should be an offensive-friendly schedule.
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8/14 DFS Hitting Catcher
Jonathan Lucroy, CHC at PHI
DK ($3,700) FD ($2,300)
To no shock, there’s little quality behind the plate when searching for bargains, so we settle on Lucroy, who has hit .375/.444/.500 with a .944 OPS in his first 16 at-bats with the Cubbies. The small sample size keeps me from getting too deep into his secondary numbers, so let’s just run with Lucroy and take advantage of Smyly’s 6.65 ERA under the lights. Smyly has also allowed 15 of his 23 homers at night and Lucroy still has enough in his bat to jack one out of Citizens Bank Park.
8/14 DFS Hitting First Basemen
J.D. Davis, NYM at ATL
DK ($4,500) FD ($2,900)
Davis has five multi-hit games over his past 10 starts and has spent the month mauling hurlers to the tune of .381/.429/.762 (1.191 OPS) with four homers and 11 RBI. His 41.7% hard contact rate and ability to wear out the left side of the field (37.2% hit rate both pulling and to center) is good reason to plug him into your lineup in a hitter-friendly park against Atlanta starter Julio Teheran, who has a 6.08 ERA in three starts against the Mets this season while allowing a .322 OBA with three homers allowed.
8/14 DFS Hitting Second Basemen
Jason Kipnis, CLE at NYY
DK ($4,000) FD ($2,900)
His bat has cooled over the past week, but Kipnis is a good play in what could be a high-scoring affair at The Stadium. Kipnis has hit the Yankees well, going .444 (4-for-9) with a couple of ribbies and an .844 OPS. You have to feel good about Kipnis’ 39.3% fly ball rate, especially in such a homer-friendly ballpark. Much of his strong August numbers have been in part of his ability to use the entire field, but the recent dip in production stems from an addiction to pulling the ball (43%). That could work well, however, considering the short porch in right field that he’ll get three more stabs at before the end of the weekend.
8/14 DFS Hitting Third Baseman
Evan Longoria, SF at ARI
DK ($4,000) FD ($2,900)
As long as he’s on the road, Longoria makes for a solid DFS value play. Away from San Francisco, Longoria has a .954 OPS with 11 of his 14 homers coming outside his playing residence. He’s regained his line drive stroke, putting together a 23.6% rate in liners after hitting just 18.5% last season. The hard contact rate (44.2%) is emphatic on the road but Longoria gets the edge in the lefty-righty matchup against D’Backs rookie southpaw Alex Young, who comes off a 3.1 inning outing against the Dodgers in his last start, allowing four runs.
8/14 DFS Hitting Shortstop
Nick Ahmed, ARI vs. SF
DK ($4,200) FD ($3,400)
You could pay more for one of the elite shortstops in action tonight, but the choice here is the underrated Ahmed, who has been locked in over the past week with three homers, nine RBI and an 1.182 OPS. He’s boosted his BABIP to .296, and his improved plate discipline (8.5% walk rate) comes in handy against Giants starter Dereck Rodriguez, who returns from the minors to make his first appearance since August 1. Rodriguez is getting hammered at at 45.4% hard contact rate while also experiencing control issues that were a non-subject last season.
8/14 DFS Hitting Outfielder
Aristides Aquino, CIN vs. STL
DK ($4,900) FD ($4,100)
Seriously, we should find someone who loves us the way Aquino loves torching baseballs over the past three weeks. Aquino and his 1.448 OPS bid for his 10th homer in only his 14th game at the expense of Cards starter Michael Wacha, whose 2.12 HR/9 will make Aquino’s at-bats Must Watch viewing (praise the MLB package on my iPhone). What is making Aquino more scary is that his walk rate is slowly rising while the strikeout rate dips. You can’t go wrong with a batter sporting a .636 Isolated Slugging total with a 50% hard contact rate who also happens to have a 46.9% fly ball rate. If Aquino isn’t in your lineup, hang your head in shame.
8/14 DFS Hitting Outfielders
Ender Inciarte, ATL vs. NYM
DK ($3,600) FD ($2,700)
Inciarte has flown under the radar since the All-Star Break, batting .290/.417/.522 (.939 OPS) and has seen three of his last six hits go for extra bases, hence the 1.271 OPS in the last week. He’s raised his walk rate to 11.6% and is using his speed to make the most of his 23.8% line drive rate. His value increases if the Braves bat him seventh; Inciarte has a .333/.500/.639 (1.139 OPS) with two homers, 11 RBI and six runs scored in 36 at-bats in that spot in the order.
8/14 DFS Hitting Outfielders
Eloy Jimenez, CWS at LAA
DK ($3,400) FD ($3,000)
It hasn’t come as easy for Jimenez as some of the other members of the 2019 rookie class, but he’s still on pace for 27-30 homers despite a 14.9% line drive rate and a 44.3% medium contact rate. Jimenez homered against the Astros on Wednesday and it stands to reason that if his 35.7% fly ball rate is on line with his minor league rates, he’s going to figure it out. There’s also playing a hunch here, which is why he’s worth taking a low-risk shot, perhaps the lowest of the 8/15 DFS Hitting lineup.
8/15 DFS Hitting Stacks
Top 8/15 DFS Hitting Stack: New York Yankees: Gleyber Torres ($5,200 Draft Kings/$4,000 FanDuel) has three homers and seven ribbies over the past week and would be the best choice if you can’t make a Yankees stack work. Cameron Maybin ($4,800/$3,100) is a good fit and you’ll want to get lefty hitters Didi Gregorius ($4,400/$3,200) and Brett Gardner ($4,700/$3,300) in there against right-hander Adam Plutko and his 4.68 ERA.
8/15 DFS Hitting Stack: Cincinnati Reds: Aquino is the first wave of what could be a short and brutal assault on Wacha. Joey Votto ($4,000/$3,300) should fare well in the lefty v. righty matchup, and I’d consider Phillip Ervin ($4,000/$2,500), especially in FanDuel. You could try and add Eugenio Suarez ($4,600/$3,900), but with the lack of reliable cash game pitchers on the docket, it’s a task that could be done if you’re willing to play a long shot on the mound for the 8/15 DFS Hitting.
Sleeper 8/15 DFS Hitting Stack: San Francisco Giants: A much better-hitting team on the road, you could start with Longoria and follow with Kevin Pillar ($4,300/$3,500), who has gone .435-2-6 in the past week. Mike Yastrzemski ($4,500/$3,100) has added three homers and seven RBI in the same span, and you could do worse than bringing Buster Posey ($3,500/$2,700) into the fray. Of the 8/15 DFS Hitting stacks, this one could be sneaky good.
