Chris Davies 
This article focuses on 5/16 and 5/17 Bundesliga Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and Fanduel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at large.
Introduction to the Bundesliga
The English Premier League will be returning on June 1st. However, in the meantime we have the return of one of Europe’s top five leagues; the Bundesliga. The Bundesliga is known for it’s preference towards open play at the expense of defense. As a result, expect higher totals than in the EPL, where there are teams who base their entire game plan on playing defense and counter-attacking. There are nine match weeks remaining this season, so the pressure is on.
The Bundesliga has the most members of the American men’s soccer team of any European league by a huge margin. The names most notably include 17 year old Gio Reyna at Dortmund, Weston McKinnie at Schalke 04, Tyler Adams at Red Bull Leipzig, Josh Sargeant at Werder Bremen and goalkeeper Zach Steffen at Fortuna Dusseldorf. All of the aforementioned players will have big roles in the US Men’s World Cup 2022 qualification efforts.
The Bundesliga and Champion’s League Qualification
The Bundesliga has four automatic qualifying spots of the 32 for the group stages of the Champions League, awarded to the top four Bundesliga finishers at the end of each season. Last year’s qualifiers were Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund (hereinafter “Dortmund”), Red Bull Leipzig (hereinafter “Leipzig”) and Bayer Leverkusen. This year the former three are all on pace to qualify next year with only fourth place Borussia Monchengladbach (hereinafter “Gladbach”) a fresh face to the party.
Three of those teams, Bayern Munich, Dortmund, and Leipzig all advanced from the Champion’s League group stages and qualified for this year’s Champion’s League Round of 16. Leipzig advanced to August’s Round of Eight with a solid two leg effort against a putrid Tottenham team.
Bayern Munich is all but assured advancement to the Round of Eight with a 4-0 advantage over Chelsea entering the second leg. Only Dortmund was eliminated, coming at the hands of French powerhouse Paris St. Germain “(hereinafter “PSG”). Come August, we will see what both Bayern Munich and Leipzig are capable of on club soccer’s biggest stage.
The fifth and six place finishers in the Bundesliga receive automatic qualifiers for the lesser Europa League. Automatic qualification for the Europa league can also be achieved by winning Germany’s domestic knockout tournament, the DFB-Pokal. Bayer Leverkusen and Schalke 04, which features American midfielder Weston McKinnie, currently occupy the fifth and six spots in the Bundesliga table.
The Top Three Teams
Bayern Munich
In German soccer, Bayern Munich is like the Yankees, Lakers, and New England Patriots combined. The German powerhouse has defended their Bundesliga title every season since 2013, with 29 total Bundesliga titles and five Champions League titles under their belt. Bayern Munich is not just one of the best teams in Germany, but as noted above, a huge threat to win the Champion’s League in August and make it six. Their last Champion’s League Title came in 2012-2013.
Led by star striker Robert Lewandowski and German national team goaltender Manuel Neuer, this is an experienced and balanced team. It has also been a huge season for winger Serge Gnabry. This season Gnabry has embraced his role as the secondary threat complementing Lewandowski.
Other weapons include the oft injured young winger Kingsley Coman, Ivan Perisic, set piece taker and wing defender Joshua Kimmich and recent import, creative midfielder Phillipe Coutinho.
“Die Roten” would be my futures bet to win the Bundesliga and I think that you can include this bet as part of a parlay to boost odds elsewhere. The defending champions will be heavy favorites the first two weeks of the Bundesliga’s return, with a big week three matchup against Dortmund which might decide the title on the spot.
Dortmund
If Bayern Munich are the Yankees of the Bundesliga than Dortmund is the Red Sox. Bayern Munich’s greatest rival has eight titles to their name by comparison along with one lone Champion’s League Title. However, they have been stuck in the role of second fiddle for quite some time.
Dortmund has always had one of the most fanatical fanbases in Europe. The fans help create quite an atmosphere at the electric “Yellow Wall” at Signal Iduna Park and Dortmund’s recent play is beginning to measure up to the display. The absence of fans will surely play a role in their matchup against visiting Bayern Munich in a few weeks. I am sure the Bavarians will not be complaining.
This team’s playing style is similar to what would happen if Mike D’Antoni ran a soccer team. Dortmund plays little defense with all emphasis placed on the offensive end. With that said, they have the personnel to score a lot of goals.
Dortmund’s Young Duo
Over the winter in what was an absolute coupe, Dortmund snatched up 19 year old superstar Erling Haaland. The only cost was 22.5 Euro release clause and paying Haaland’s agent 10 million Euros. Now valued at well over 100 million Euros, Haaland has torn up the Bundesliga, much like he had the group stages of the Champions League with his former team, Austria’s Red Bull Salzberg.
Dortmund wasn’t bereft of young talent prior to Haaland’s arrival. The other centerpiece English winger Jadon Sancho is another rising star, also only 19 years old. Sancho only seems to keep getting better at a rapid pace putting up 14 goals and 12 assists in 23 Bundesliga games this season. There are also complimentary talents like up and coming wing defender Achrif Hakimi and 17 year old American Gio Reyna. This team is young and dangerous.
Assuming both Haaland and Sancho remain at Dortmund another season, a big if, it will be interesting to see what they could do with a full year under the belt. However, four points behind in the table, it will be tough to overcome Bayern Munich over the remaining nine games this year. If these two stay together though anything is possible in the future.
Leipzig
Leipzig is reviled by all other German fans as a corporate shill. This is a team that was in the fourth division until Red Bull purchased them a decade ago. With Red Bull’s money infusion they were able to rise up the ranks year by year, eventually making it to the Bundesliga. Now they are taking their biggest leaps “zig?” yet. Leipzig is five points shy of first in the Bundesliga and have advanced to the round of eight in the Champion’s League.
Leipzig is a more balanced team than Dortmund. Star striker Timo Werner may not get quite the attention of Lewandowski or Haaland but he has been having a terrific season in his own right. The secondary threat, attacking midfielder Marcel Sabitzer has also been tearing things up for Leipzig up front. Both Werner and Sabitzer have received additional assistance this season from forward Patrick Schick and creative midfielder Christopher Nkunku.
On the back end, 21 year old central defender Dayot Upamecano has been awesome this season. Upamecano is being discussed as an acquisition target for teams across Europe. Coach Julian Nagelsmann at 32 is already considered one of Europe’s brightest young coaches. Overall, this is a team on the rise.
5/16 and 5/17 Bundesliga Best Bets
Schalke 04 (+500) at Dortmund (-180) – Over 2.5 Goals (-120) – 9:30 AM ET – Saturday 5/16 – *DORTMUND*
Freiburg (+900) at Leipzig (-305) – Under 3 Goals (-125) – 9:30 AM ET – Saturday 5/16 – *LEIPZIG*
Union Berlin (+1300) at Bayern Munich (-450) – Over 3.5 Goals (-105) – 10:00 AM ET – Sunday 5/17 – *BAYERN MUNICH*
The Betting Gameplan
With all of the top teams in the Bundesliga heavy favorites this weekend, there is no need to get too creative. You can run a parlay with all three, or two of the three, your choice. Bayern Munich, Dortmund, and Leipzig all have very winnable matchups. All three should resume the season by grabbing wins across the board to all keep the Bundesliga table level. I view Bayern Munich and Leipzig as extremely safe. Dortmund is the most susceptible of the three as Schalke 04 is considerably better than the other teams opponents and that is a rivalry game “The Revierderby”.
FanDuel Rankings – Saturday 5/16
Forward/Midfield
- 1. Timo Werner – Red Bull Leipzig – $22
- 2. Erling Haaland – Dortmund – $21
- 3. Jadon Sancho – Dortmund – $20 “Game time decision”
- 4. Marcel Sabitzer – Red Bull Leipzig – $18
- 5. Christopher Nkunku – Red Bull Leipzig – $16
- 6. Achraf Hakimi – Dortmund – $16
- 7. Thorgan Hazard – Dortmund – $17
- 8. Kai Proger – SC Paderborn – $16
- 9. Patrick Schick – Red Bull Leipzig – $17
- 10. Florian Neuhaus – Gladbach – $15
- 11. Rapheal Guerreiro – Dortmund – $14
- 12. Julian Brandt – Dortmund – $13
- 13. Daniel Caligiuri – Schalke 04 – $11
- 14. Alassane Plea – Gladbach – $21
- 15. Ihlas Bebou – Hoffenheim – $17
Defense “When lineups come out and you can the formations, see who the central defenders are for the heaviest underdogs and if they’re cheap. I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the position and would focus on spending elsewhere”
- 1. Salif Sane – Schalke 04 – $12
- 2. Lukasz Piszcezk – Dortmund – $9
- 3. Angelino – RB Leipzig – $14
- 4. Christian Gunter – Frieburg – $15
Goalie
- 1. Peter Gulacsi – RB Leipzig – $14
- 2. Yan Sommer – Gladbach – $12
DraftKings Rankings – Saturday 5/16
Forward
- 1. Jadon Sancho – Dortmund – $10,800 “Game time decision”
- 2. Timo Werner – RB Leipzig – $10,500
- 3. Erling Haaland – Dortmund – $10,200
- 4. Christopher Nkunku – RB Leipzig – $9,700
- 5. Kai Proger – SC Paderborn 07 – $7,500
- 6. Daniel Caligiuri – Schalke 04- $5,400
- 7. Thorgan Hazard – Dortmund – $8,900
- 8. Kai Proger – SC Paderborn 07 – $7,500
- 9. Erik Thommy – Fortuna Dusseldorf – $8,200
- 10. Patrick Schick – RB Leipzig – $9,400
Midfield
- 1. Jadon Sancho – Dortmund – $10,800
- 2. Christopher Nkunku – RB Leipzig – $9,700
- 3. Marcel Sabitzer – RB Leipzig – $9,100
- 4. Maximilian Arnold – Wolfsburg – $8,400
- 5. Kai Proger – SC Paderborn 07 – $7,500
- 6. Angelino – RB Leipzig – $6,200
- 7. Raphael Guerreiro – Dortmund – $6,100
- 8. Achraf Hakimi – Dortmund – $6,400
- 9. Thorgan Hazard – Dortmund – $8,900
- 10. Daniel Caligiuri – Schalke 04 – $5,400
Defense “Just punt with wing defenders, awful position”
- 1. Maximillian Mittelstadt – Hertha Berlin – $5,600
- 2. Paulo Otavio – Wolfsburg – $5,700
- 3. Christian Gunter – Freiburg – $5,100
- 4. Kevin Mbabu – Wolfsburg – $5,400
- 5. Marvin Plattenhardt – Hertha Berlin – $5,000
Goalies
- 1. Peter Gulasci – RB Leipzig – $5,900
- 2. Koen Casteels – Wolfsburg – $5,000
Sign up and get started with WinDailySports! We have your sport and the experts to help make you money. Why lose another buck when you can win TODAY!
