It’s always a pleasure to cover PGA Tour golf tournaments for you, but even more so after a huge win! Ludvig Aberg duly won for us at last week’s Signature Event at the Genesis Invitational paying 22/1. As we delve into this week’s Mexico Open, it was wonderful to see so much success in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord.
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Mexico Open Preview Vidanta Vallarta Course Analysis
Now into its 4th rendition held at this course, we should have a fair understanding of how the course usually plays. And there are some key indicators you can preview which are beneficial to playing well at the Mexico Open.
Vidanta Vallarta is a resort-style golf course. Greg Norman never designed this with any thought to how a PGA Tour golfer may approach the venue. The rough is non-existent and any wind provides the only modicum of protection. Essentially, you will need to score low this week to find yourself with any chance at contention.
Playing as a par 71 at 7,456 yards, pound for pound it is one of the longer tracks on the PGA Tour. Par 4 and par 5 length are the longest on the PGA Tour at a whopping 495 yards on average. The course is at sea level, so it will play the entirety of that distance.
Unsurprisingly, for our Mexico Open preview driving distance is ranked highly. However, the yardage goes further than that simplistic answer.
This also has significant implications for approach shots, particularly for SG: APP from 150-200 and 200+ yards. You will see a high concentration number of long-iron approach shots this week. 65% of all iron shots will occur from over 150+ yards. That includes an additional 2 shots from 150-200 yards and, on average, an additional 1.5 shots from 200+ yards compared to a typical PGA Tour venue.
Finally, no Mexico Open preview would be complete without speaking about the grass. Vidanta Vallarta features paspalum grass tee-to-green. This sticky grass is used rarely in the PGA Tour. It is found in seaside golf courses, as it is resistant to salt air and water. It tends to be very slow compared to Poa Annua, Bermuda, or Bentgrass.
Vidanta Vallarta Course Comps
Several “Princes of Paspalum” have developed over the years. A huge advantage can be gained in identifying them. This has provided us with huge success at the Mexico Open over the years.
One of the best tournaments to use as a guide for your Mexico Open preview is the Corales Puntacana Championship. Corales Golf Club is another long golf course playing at 7,670 yards for a par 72, with a large concentration of long-iron approach shots, and features paspalum.
The most recent host of the World Wide Technology Championship, El Cardonal, is a 7,452 yard par 72 in Mexico with paspalum. Grand Reserve Country Club, host of the Puerto Rico Open, is a 7,506 yards par 72 again featuring paspalum. Tony Finau is a winner at both events and Akshay Bhatia links these nicely.
The benefit of utilizing these comp courses goes beyond featuring similar topography as other exposed tropical golf courses. Additionally, they are more likely to feature cross-over players given they are typically weaker field events to the more flagship PGA Tour stops.
To find a way to differentiate yourself this week, consider looking at courses used on the Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour. The Korn Ferry Tour has two events in the Bahamas, in Panama, in Chile, and the Astara Championship in Colombia two weeks ago which can provide guidance.
Al Hamra should provide a nice course comp as should Royal Golf Club Bahrain from the DP World Tour. Both long tracks have been dominated by bombers, featuring large Paspalum greens with little danger off the tee.
Finally, course history has not been very correlated to predicting success here. This can be partially attributed to the Mexico Open being a lesser field than other tournaments that surround it on the schedule.
Weather
With next to no wind in the forecast this week, the sole possible defense of this golf course is notably absent. Expect the golfers to take advantage as a result and score low.
For purposes of First Round Leader (FRL) bets, I recommend looking at the early morning tee times. Any moisture in the ground is likely to be there first thing before drying out during the day. Further, is any winds are to arrive it will be in the afternoon as is common in golf courses next to the ocean with onshore breezes.
As always, in The WinDaily Sports Premium Discord channel, we provide weather updates right up to the first tee times using premium weather modeling. To make sure you have the best information is essential to finding success. This is particularly important in DFS, where the difference in one golfer making the cut to play the weekend has a sizeable impact.
Mexico Open Preview Golf Betting Tips
Thank you for reading my Mexico Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
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