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January 8, 2025

Firstly, a very Happy New Year to all our wonderful regular and new readers. And welcome back to full field golf tournaments for 2025!

Personally, I am excited for what 2025 will bring after a couple short weeks of R+R for myself. It was a big year, covering both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour in full as well as moving house twice and buying a new home. All wonderful things!

From my perspective, the FedEx Cup Fall series is improved on prior years. There seems to be more on the line, a final chance for some favourites and regular names to retain PGA Tour playing privileges. But, the reality we all realise is fields are decidedly weaker than what we experience on the rest of the schedule. So, it is wonderful to have a few more well-known names joined by some up and coming talent this week in Honolulu.

Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.

Profits were down on 2022 (ROI 24.9%) and 2023 (ROI +32.7%). This is easily understandable. It came down to one golfer, who you might have heard of, named Scottie Scheffler.

When a golfer wins 56% of his tournament starts from March onwards, all as a very short single odd favourite, it makes turning a profit all the more difficult. The vast majority of golf punters ended the year in a loss. So, I am really proud to have delivered this result for our Premium customers in a tricky year.

You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!

Every year, Sony Open previews I read will immediately refer to trends. The most prevalent trend will be some form of “8 of the last 11 winners of the Sony Open also played at The Sentry the week prior.” My advice is to approach these with caution. Remember, correlation does not necessarily mean causation!

Is there merit to this claim? Fact is, The Sentry typically features the very best players on the PGA Tour from the year before. So, it’s unsurprising that those who play the Sony Open tend to go off as favourites and, often, win in a typically weaker field.

Certainly, I acknowledge there can be a modicum of advantage gained in having played the week prior. Golfers get the chance to acclimatize and shake the off-season rust.

However, I do believe this trend is over-played. Punters and DFS players often completely end up excluding any players who didn’t start the week prior at The Sentry. That can be seen as an overreaction, to what I regard as a tentative link at best.

Waialae Country Club hosts our Sony Open preview

Waialae Country Club Course Analysis

In poker, it is often spoken about playing the man not the cards. My advice this week is to play the course, not the trend!

Part of my perspective on trends comes from the fact that Wai’alae Country Club is starkly different to last week’s host at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Arctic references may not seem as applicable in these warm climes of Hawaii, but the courses couldn’t be more polar opposite.

Plantation is huge, both in length of the course and width of the fairways. In contrast, Wai’alae is narrow and fiddly. Actually, Wai’alae Country Club had the largest deviation from normal driving distance of any golf course on the PGA Tour in 2023 and 6th in 2024.

Unsurprisingly, driving accuracy is a strong predictor of success. Much of that comes from the narrow fairways, but also overhanging trees and doglegs in both directions. In 2023, the rough was grown out to 3 inches from 2.25 inches in 2022. Bermuda rough is tough to play. This grass really grabs the club and can produce flyer lies. 3 inches is the longest the PGA Tour have had for Bermuda rough, only previous seen at the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

SG: ATG is such a strong predictor of success here. The main defense for the course are the Hawai’i trade winds and this could be one explainer. This may be emphasised with some wind in the forecast and I predict we also see an uptick in SG: Putting instead with softer surfaces easier to hold due some rain.

Approach between 150-175 yards is higher than almost any other PGA Tour courses. 63% of all shots will occur from 125-200 yards.

Wai’alae Country Club Course Comps

Make sure you take a strong look at those who have found prior success at this golf course. The correlation of prior performance as a predictor of future success is the 2nd highest of any golf course on the PGA Tour. Augusta National is the highest, by quite some margin, followed by Waialae Country Club.

Keep your eye on players who have played well on other shorter courses. Particularly, those with dog legs in both directions and by the sea with higher winds. RBC Heritage host Habour Town Golf Links is another narrow test by the ocean, as is RSM Classic host Sea Island GC. Colonial Country Club receives inclusion, given it’s propensity for SG: ATG and similar approach buckets of 125-200 yards.

El Camaleon Mayakoba is a very good guide to our Sony Open preview. The golf course was the prior host of the Worldwide Technology Championship. That was before course designer Greg Norman claimed it back for LIV Golf to use. In 15 iterations of the WWT Mayakoba Championship, 6 also won the Sony Open. Henley completed the double most recently in 2022. It is a narrow test, where driving accuracy is weighted heavily, and is played in a tropical environment.

Weather

To begin, it is worth a preview of the weather forecast before the Sony Open starts. Originally, it did seem a significant weather edge would develop. Thursday look set for thunderstorms, heavy rains, and high winds. This was likely to have resulted in an advantage for those going out Thursday PM/Friday AM, as they were likely to have delays and see those golfers get to play majority of their opening rounds on the calmer Friday.

However, those predictions have largely subsided. Thunderstorms now look set to arrive later on Thursday evening after play has concluded. I do still prefer the Thursday PM/Friday AM times as they will get lower winds Thursday afternoon and softer conditions on Friday after overnight rain.

Make sure you are honing in on the key approach numbers listed above. I also give a boost to SG: ATG and SG: Putting over typical tournaments at Waialae, with a higher likelihood of missed greens and needing to scramble to maintain momentum with par saves.

Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.

Sony Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Sony Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

It was so popular that we brought it back!
For the start of a new golf season, we have extended our Black Friday special offer on our premium memberships to celebrate PGA Tour golf returning.

JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code BLACKFRIDAY and get your first week for just $1.99, followed by 50% off your monthly sub!

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!

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The 2025 Sony Open in Hawaii, scheduled for January 6–12 at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, marks the first full-field event of the PGA TOUR’s new season. A total of 144 top-ranked professionals, including seasoned veterans, past champions, and promising rookies, will compete for a share of the $8.7 million purse, with the winner receiving $1,566,000.

The tournament features a strong lineup of players. Notably, Hideki Matsuyama, who recently secured a victory at the Sentry Tournament of Champions with an impressive record-breaking winning total of 35-under 257. He aims to continue his success at Wai’alae, where he won in 2022, to complete a Hawaiian swing double. Other prominent participants include Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Byeong Hun An, and Tom Kim, all seeking to make a significant impact in the new season.

Waialae Country Club, a par-70 course measuring 7,044 yards, is renowned for its tree-lined fairways, small greens, and 83 strategically placed bunkers. The course this year celebrates 98 years since it was founded in 1927. The course’s coastal layout and Bermuda greens present unique challenges, often leading to winning scores around 20-under par. Its rich history and picturesque setting make it a favorite among players and spectators alike.

The Sony Open is not only a significant sporting event but also Hawaii’s largest charity golf event. Since its inception, it has generated substantial proceeds for local not-for-profit organizations, contributing over $25 million to more than 350 charities. The tournament’s global reach extends to over 560 million homes in 216 countries, showcasing international golf talent against Hawaii’s natural beauty.

Here are Win Daily Sports Experts’ picks for this week’s tournament:

.
David
Bieleski
Steven
Polardi
Outright WinnerAll E/W, check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds

Henley
D Thompson
Cam Davis
Glover
Phillips
Lipsky
Todd

Pendrith
Top Finishes MarketsTop 20
D Thompson
Cam Davis
Glover
Phillips
Lipsky
Todd

Top 40
Lipsky
Todd
Top 10
Kizire
Glover
Top 20
Detry
Hughes
Top 40
Todd
Phillips
Match-UpsEckroat over Theegala (+100 Bet365)
Kirk over Harman (-105 Fanduel)
First-Round LeaderD Thompson 60/1
Davis 66/1
Hoge 66/1
Kirk 66/1
Phillips 90/1
Nick Taylor 90/1
Lipsky 150/1

NOVAK
DFS Plays I ❤️ Thompson
Ben Griffin
Cam Davis
Kirk
Putnam
Phillips
Kizzire
Todd
Lipsky
Pendrith
McNealy
Hughes
Hoge
Straka
DFS Chalk I'm playingMatsuyama
Henley
Conners
Straka
Berger
Hoge
Nick Taylor
Matsuyama
Henley
DFS Chalk I'm fadingTom Kim
Bradley
McNealy
Hughes
Norlander
Conners
Clanton
Si Woo Kim

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This week we go Hawaii island hopping to The Sony. This course doesn’t favor bombers, it’s a precision course that rewards a short game. Hitting the fairway is key this week, last week you had fairways you could land a 747 on. They changed the cut in the Bermuda rough from 2.25 inches to 3 inches in 2023 and that stays. Driving accuracy will count as well as approach from 125-175. The goal is to hit the tree lined narrow fairways, then a decent swing into the Bermuda greens, and finally to putt your ass off to score a ton of DFS points. The Sony Ownership Projections will assist you in reaching your goals.

Recent Results

Last week with no cut our Skinny Scone pick Nico Echaverria finished 30th when his price (6500) put him 55th. He doubled his value for us. We had 370 and 380 scores for Showdown and it was a profitable first week. We are just getting started. The Frisky Biscuit and another selection will be in Discord this Wednesday eve. The only place on the planet you can find The Frisky Risky Biscuit is Win Daily Sports.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather will be key this week and is currently slated to be stacked to the PM/AM side. it’s wet so the course will play soft. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord this evening for more comprehensive reports from Deep Dive Dave.

Let’s take a look at the Sony Ownership Projections to create leverage and increase your ROI.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Matsuyama, Hideki34.311000
Conners, Corey27.610200
Henley, Russell22.49900
McNealy, Maverick20.39200
Clanton, Luke (a)19.98400
Kim, Tom 18.49800
Berger, Daniel17.37500
McCarthy, Denny16.27600
Eckroat, Austin 14.98700
Straka, Sepp14.88000
Kim, Si Woo14.69000
Bradley, Keegan13.79500
Poston,  JT13.68900
Novak, Andrew13.37400
Hughes, Mackenzie13.17800
Thompson, Davis 12.98500
Kirk, Chris12.77800
Griffin, Ben12.68200
Theegala, Sahith12.59100
Kitayama, Kurt 12.48600
Hall, Harry12.38100
MacIntyre, Robert 12.29300
Pendrith, Taylor 12.08800
Detry,Thomas 11.97500
Davis, Cameron10.47900
Hoge, Tom9.97700
An, Byeong9.89400
Kucher, Matt9.27200
Thornbjornsen, Michael 8.67400
Jaeger, Stephan 7.57400
Cole, Eric7.47500
Taylor, Nick7.47100
Harman, Brian7.38300
Ghim, Doug7.27300
English, Harris6.87700
Echavarria, Nico6.77300
Putnam, Andrew6.57400
Dunlap,  Nick 6.47300
Glover, Lucas6.47300
Horschel, Billy6.37900
Power, Seamus5.67400
Meissner, Mac 5.37100
Fishburn, Patrick5.07200
Highsmith, Joe4.87100
Phillips, Chandler4.77100
Pan, CT4.26900
Montgomery, Taylor4.16400
Mitchell, Keith3.97300
Svensson, Adam3.97200
Hadwin, Adam3.97200
Hoey, Rico3.87000
Kizzire, Patton3.86900
Grillo, Emiliano3.77200
McGreevy, Max3.57200
Moore, Taylor3.37000
Stevens, Sam3.27100
Bridgeman, Jacob2.96900
Spaun, JJ2.87200
Hubbard, Mark2.77100
Norlander, Henrik2.66800
Rodgers, Patrick2.67300
Silverman, Ben2.56700
Todd, Brendon2.36700
Hodges, Lee 2.37000
Kanaya, Takumi2.27000
Kim, Michael2.27300
Schmid, Matti2.16800
Woodland, Gary2.17000
Capan III, Frankie1.96600
Lower, Justin1.97000
Van Rooyen, Erik1.96900
Lipsky, David1.76600
McCarty, Matthew1.77600
Sigg, Greyson 1.46800
Hisatsune, Ryo1.27100
Hoffman, Charley1.26700
Potgieter, Aldrich 1.16600
Young, Carson1.16700
Kim, Chan1.16900
Dahmen, Joel0.96700
Kohles, Ben0.86400
Svensson, Jesper0.86800
Cauley, Bud0.86900
Campbell, Brian0.76600
Simpson, Webb0.76600
Smalley, Alex 0.76800
Whaley, Vincent0.77000
Lee, KH0.66600
Martin, Ben0.66300
Gerard, Ryan0.56800
Hardy, Nick0.56700
Baddeley, Aaron0.46100
Cummins, Quade0.46500
Garnett, Brice0.46300
Knapp, Jake0.46900
Higgs, Harry0.36300
Johnson, Zack0.36400
Malnati, Peter0.36100
Ryder, Sam0.36500
Sugiura, Yuta0.36200
Hoshino, Rikuya0.26600
List, Luke0.26500
Skinns, David0.26200
Campos, Rafael0.16300
Gotterup, Christopher0.16500
Lashley, Nate0.16400
Roy, Kevin0.16700
Tosti, Alejandro0.16500
Andersen, Mason0.06000
Castillo, Ricky 0.06300
Cohen, Gavin (a)0.06000
Cone, Trevor0.06200
Del Solar, Christobal0.06300
Dickson, Taylor0.06400
Fisk, Steven0.06400
Goodwin, Noah0.06100
Gordon, Will0.06400
Hahn, James0.06000
Hirata, Kensei0.06500
Loree, Tyler (a)0.06000
Manke, RJ0.06000
Matsuyama, Mao (a)0.06000
Mouw, William 0.06500
Norrman, Vincent0.06200
Onishi, Kaito0.06100
Pak, John 0.06100
Palmer, Ryan0.06000
Paul, Jeremy0.06100
Peterson, Paul0.06200
Polland, Ben0.06000
Ramey, Chad0.06500
Rosenmueller, Thomas0.06500
Salinda, Isaiah 0.06300
Schenk, Adam0.06800
Snedeker, Brandt0.06000
Streelman, Kevin0.06400
Suber, Jackson 0.06300
Thornberry, Braden0.06200
Velo, Kevin0.06100
Ventura, Kris0.06200
Villegas, Camilo0.06100
Walker, Danny0.06200
Welsh, Kelly0.06000
Widing, Tim 0.06400

These Sony Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:37 EST. Top tier golfers will show a higher % by lock.

My Picks for The Sony

Top Tier: Pendrith

Mid Tier: Straka

Low Tier: Hoge

Out in Left Play: Glover

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Henley

FR Leader: Kizzire (Contrarian)

What to Watch

You need to catch the PGA DraftCast, hosted by DraftMasterFlex Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave who drop in to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. Where else can you get three world class golf handicappers and a running text by the experts and audience (you too) that’s hilarious and educational. It’s every Tuesday night at 9:00 EST and is engaging, interactive and you will get a kick out of it. Check it out!

At the end of the DraftCast the experts put out their betting picks. If you had placed 10.00 on Deep Dive Dave’s bets for 2024 you would be up 3200!!!!. We are talking 10 bucks a pop for an explosive ROI. It’s a no brainer. Everyone wants to get in on this..except maybe Quasimodo and Frankenstein.

***** Parting Shots *****

A minister of a local church was an avid golfer. He loved the game. The problem was it rained six days a week and it was beautiful every Sunday. This went on for months until he couldn’t stand it anymore. One Sunday morning he lied, told his church he was sick and took his clubs to another town and another golf course. St Peter and God were observing this and St. Peter asked how this pure man of the cloth could do this to his church. God assuredly told Peter he would be punished. The pastor begin to play lights out and ended up having two holes in one. He was jumping up and down with joy over his greatest round ever. St Peter looked at God and asked, “how can you let him have two holes in one and call that punishment??” God spoke calmly and with resolve and said, “Just let him try to tell anyone he knows about it.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Well, another NFL Season is in the books. 14 teams remain in contention for the Lombardy Trophy in New Orleans in just over a month from now. It’s win or go home as we enter the Wild Card round where we’ll only get six games sprinkled over the weekend until Monday Night. Here we will look at salaries and who to roster for DFS in each matchup, so let’s cut right to the meat and potatoes. We’ll only focus on GPP plays during the playoffs since the player pools have been cut down drastically allowing us better chances of taking down tournaments.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach Monday Night.

Saturday Slate 1/11/25

Chargers @ Texans (+3) (U/O 42.5)

The fourth and fifth seeds collide to kick off the playoffs in Texas as the Chargers play the Texans. LA is back to full strength with the return of running back JK Dobbins from IR. He looked spry in his first game back carrying the ball 18 times for 63 yards while adding three catches for 12. Meanwhile, the Texans ended their season on a high note against a cupcake matchup between the Titans, who allowed quarterback CJ Stroud to find the endzone on his first and only series in the finale of the season.

As home underdogs, Houston will face a Chargers defense that was ranked number one overall in points allowed for the season. They’ll face an uphill road to the endzone as they’ve been short-handed at receiver with no reliable other than Nico Collins. Texans’ running back Joe Mixon seems to have fallen off a cliff towards the end of the regular season, as he hasn’t seen over 100 yards rushing since Week 13 after starting on fire. However, the Chargers are a team that refuses their opponents to run the football, as their DVOA is 7th to opposing backs. Paying up for Nico Collins and Joe Mixon along with paying down for Stroud would be pretty risky in DFS this week, consider paying a reasonable salary at the tight end for Dalton Schultz ($3,600 on DK) to get different in GPPs.

LA enters the contest as a favorite to win on the road, thanks to their tight defense, play calling, and Justin Herbert returning to his gunslinger role while JK Dobbins was injured. Now that Dobbins appears to be back, the Chargers may have a lock into the Divisional Round if they can hold up defensively to a Texans’ team that has struggled to find the end zone recently. But with Dobbins back on the injury report with an ankle issue, Herbert may be asked once again to air it out. Houston’s DVOA ranks 20th through the passing game, so it’s an arrow in the right direction for Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Will Dissly. If you’re looking to pivot and get different in this matchup, Derius Davis at $3,300 will be on the field quite a bit as he replaces Josh Palmer at WR3, and he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in two of his last three games.

GPP: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Will Dissly, JK Dobbins (if healthy), Dalton Schultz, Derius Davis

Update: Quentin Johnson and Josh Palmer still not practicing, DJ Chark is now a pivot at wide receiver

Steelers @ Ravens (-10) (U/O 43.5)

Next, we head over to the AFC North where the third and sixth seeds will battle it out as the Steelers take on the Ravens Saturday Night. It’ll be a cold night in Baltimore where two top defenses will go at it giving us a low 43-point total, but Pittsburgh’s puttering offense led by Russell Wilson ended up making them ten-point dogs on the road. The Ravens bring a lot to the table and have been lighting it up on both sides of the ball, forcing the Steelers to go big or go home this weekend.

Pittsburgh will face the number-one-ranked run defense in Baltimore, a team that has only allowed 80 yards rushing this season. This diminishes Najee Harris’ production but could elevate Jaylen Warren in the third-down role catching passes out of the flat. The Steelers in order to win will need to get the ball into the hands of their best player-George Pickens. Last week was a gross in the game against Cincinnati, with one catch for zero yards. He made a lot of fantasy managers, including myself very unhappy. Expect a bounce-back week in the Wild Card as Tomlin and Arthur Smith will scheme to have Russell Wilson get him the football against a Ravens’ secondary that has allowed over 4,100 passing yards in 2024.

Baltimore will continue to roll out the number-one rushing offense until it can be stopped, even against one of the most put-together defenses led by TJ Watt. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry continue to punish opposing tackles and linemen with their ability to run their RPO down their throats. When Baltimore does decide to throw the ball, it’s been all Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman towards the end of the regular season. Zay Flowers has not practiced this week after suffering a knee injury in the closing game against Cleveland, so expect more usage from Bateman and Andrews if Flowers sits out Saturday. Isaiah Likely and Tylan Wallace (73% of the snaps in Week 18) will also see a bump if Flowers is out, and provide some decent leverage in GPP tournaments if they land in the endzone.

GPP: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Baltimore DST, Rashod Bateman, Jaylen Warren, George Pickens, Isaiah Likely, Tylan Wallace

Update: Zay Flowers is OUT

Sunday Slate 1/12/25

Broncos @ Bills (-8.5) (U/O 47.5)

Day two of the Wild Card Round of 2025 will kick off in Buffalo as the Bills host the Broncos. Rookie Bo Nix will lead his team across the country alongside head coach Sean Payton as huge underdogs on the road. The weather forecast will be cold, with a possibility of snow, which could affect the total if it does begin to fall. Josh Allen and the Bills will be well rested after sitting out most of Week 18 and should be ready to wipe the floor with Denver.

For DFS on the Broncos side, do not be so quick to take the discount at quarterback for Bo Nix. He had a huge Week 18 that propelled his team into the playoffs, but it was against a Chiefs’ defense that rested everybody. Asking a rookie to take on a juggernaut of defense on the road will be a big task, as the Bills will be ready to put on the pressure. Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims have been his top targets, grabbing six touchdowns combined in their last two games, so they should see plenty of attention. Devaughn Vele plays the most snaps next to Sutton and could have his own big day if the defense focuses on his teammates.

Buffalo, we know where our bagels are buttered for DFS, and it’s the NFL’s QB-1, Josh Allen. If you can fit him in a lineup that works for you, then roll with it. He’s the ultimate dual threat at quarterback, who loves to spread out the passing targets. It’s tough to pinpoint who will be on the receiving end for the Bills in every matchup, so for DFS it’s best to pay down on their receivers. Amari Cooper has fallen to $4,900 on DraftKings, not because of talent but for availability. He’s been away from the team attending to a family matter but will suit up and has been back to practice this week.

James Cook is a smart pivot if you feel like fading Allen because of the Broncos’ defense. The second-year back landed in the endzone 18 times this season and could see more visits on Sunday afternoon if the Broncos can contain the Bills’ passing game and deploy a spy on Allen. The Bills’ DST also makes a nice stack alongside Cook, especially if Denver’s offense cannot get off the ground and Cook gets extra reps to eat off the clock.

GPP: Josh Allen, James Cook, Amari Cooper, Bills DST, Devaughn Vele, Khalil Shakir, Courtland Sutton

Packers @ Eagles (-4.5) (U/O 45.5)

We’ll head back over to the NFC for Sunday afternoon as the Packers take on the Eagles in Philadelphia. Both teams have suffered some injuries to the starting quarterback position to close out the regular season, yet both of them have been cleared to play are Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. Starting either this week for DFS would be a high-risk, high reward if this game becomes a shootout.

The Eagles enter this game as nearly five-point favorites but have been very cautious with Jalen Hurts’ concussion he suffered back in Week 16. This being his first game in three weeks, I expect the staff to curb his rushing attempts and have Saquon Barkley shoulder the bulk of carries, who should be well-rested after sitting out last week. Paying up for AJ Brown who may see plenty of Jaire Alexander could also be risky, so consider DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert who are safely priced much less than Brown and could produce the same value.

Green Bay has ridden the coattails of Josh Jacobs all season long, as he was sixth in the league in carries and rushing yards, along with 16 total touchdowns. They’ve become a run-first offense even with all the talent they have in their receiving core. Philadelphia however, will be waiting in the wings for their approach, and their defense is second in DVOA to opposing running backs, allowing only 104 yards per game this season. The Pack will need to move the chains through the air, so a lot will rest on Love’s shoulders. They’ll be without Christian Watson, so the next man up will be Dontayvion Wicks, whose price on DraftKings is a mere $4,500. Tucker Kraft also gets an arrow up with the Watson injury.

Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Eagles DST

Commanders @ Bucs (-3) (U/O 50.5)

Here we land in the highest total of the weekend as the sixth-seeded Commanders go head-to-head with the third-seeded Bucs in sunny Florida. It will be a popular game, especially for DFS as we’ll see some players with reasonable salaries set to be in some smash-spots fantasy-wise. Vegas also sees it as a close game with only the standard 3-point spread so yes stack this game if you like, even in a Sat-Mon contest.

Jayden Daniels of the Commanders delivers for DFS from week to week, when will he come down to earth? I don’t see that happening until next season, since this Bucs’ defense has been walked all over. The second overall pick in this year’s draft will feast on a Tampa secondary ranked 29th in the league in passing yardage. His legs are his most dangerous weapons, racking up close to 900 yards with six rushing scores. Pair him with McLaurin or Olamide Zaccheaus, who has crushed his value in recent weeks posting 24 and 23.3 fantasy points. Even more value lies in the Washington offense with Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler, both in the $4K range on DraftKings and perfectly fine in this game environment.

As much as I love Daniels in this spot, I love Mayfield just as much. He’s $700 cheaper than Daniels and because of the Bucs’ defense, he’ll be forced to carry the load once again. Now we all know Mike Evans has been his go-to guy, but he’ll face his arch nemesis at cornerback Marshon Lattimore for another tough battle. Evans has struggled over the years against Lattimore, catching for only a total of 40 yards with three catches in two separate games. Taking on Jalen McMillan or Cade Otton at a discount may be the safer way to stack Baker, but I will never tell you to not take a shot on the future Hall of Famer Mike Evans. Both backs are useful in Tampa with Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, though the latter has taken over the backfield and would consider paying up for Irving who has seen a bigger role here in January (72% of the snaps in Week 18)

GPP: Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler, Bucky Irving.

Monday Night 1/13/25

Vikings @ Rams (+1.5) (U/O 46.5)

Finally, to wrap up the Playoffs Weekend we get the Rams hosting the Vikings on Monday Night. Whether you’re playing a Showdown or a Multi-Day Tournament, you’ll want to find pieces of this game in your lineups. LA’s game will be played in Arizona because of the tragic fires, which may hype the Rams up or drag them down because of the recent events. The Vikings are coming off a disappointing loss to Detroit last Sunday Night and will be looking for a get-right spot in the postseason.

The Rams will be ready and rested after sitting out their main players in Week 18 to prepare for the playoffs. Hopefully, Matt Stafford can get back on track with a solid outing after being in a slump since Week 16. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass or passed for over 200 yards in his last three games, so wake up Matt. When he does complete passes, it’s been all Puca Nacua or dump-offs to Kyren Willams in the backfield, while Cooper Kupp has disappeared from the scheme. Until we see some light from Stafford, stick with Williams and Nacua in your mullti-slate lineups while in Showdowns prioritize Nacua against the 32nd in DVOA to opposing receivers in your Captain/MVP slot.

Sam Darnold caught a few lumps in the big Sunday Night closer in Detroit, which led the Vikings to become a road team possibly throughout their postseason. But that was one game, and let’s give credit where it is due. Minnesota is a great football team that has won 14 games, and they will show us why on Monday night. The weapons are all on hand for Darnold, which rejuvenated his career. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones are all able to make their marks in the postseason, especially against a Rams team that may be mentally exhausted from the fires in California

GPP: Puca Nacua, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Matt Stafford

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Wild Card Weekend! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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These are DFSGhost's NBA Plays for Jan 08, 2025.

Last updated at 9:13 pm ET. Please check back throughout the day for updates.

Position DraftKings FanDuel
Elite PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Elite PG Cade Cunningham Tyrese Maxey
Mid-Tier PG Shaedon Sharpe Russell Westbrook
Mid-Tier PG Russell Westbrook Josh Giddey
Value PG Jared Butler Andrew Nembhard
Value PG Cason Wallace Lonzo Ball
Elite SG Donovan Mitchell Tyrese Haliburton
Elite SG Zach LaVine
Mid-Tier SG Shaedon Sharpe Shaedon Sharpe
Mid-Tier SG Norman Powell Josh Giddey
Value SG Julian Champagnie Julian Champagnie
Value SG Brandon Boston Jr. Jared Butler
Elite SF RJ Barrett Scottie Barnes
Elite SF Scottie Barnes
Mid-Tier SF Norman Powell Shaedon Sharpe
Mid-Tier SF Devin Vassell Tobias Harris
Value SF Julian Champagnie Julian Champagnie
Value SF Brandon Boston Jr. Malik Beasley
Elite PF Giannis Antetokounmpo Giannis Antetokounmpo
Elite PF Jalen Williams Victor Wembanyama
Mid-Tier PF Pascal Siakam Tobias Harris
Mid-Tier PF Tobias Harris Deni Avdija
Value PF Aaron Wiggins Guerschon Yabusele
Value PF Guerschon Yabusele Obi Toppin
Elite C Nikola Jokic Nikola Jokic
Elite C Giannis Antetokounmpo Victor Wembanyama
Mid-Tier C Deandre Ayton Isaiah Hartenstein
Mid-Tier C Isaiah Hartenstein Nicolas Claxton
Value C Thomas Bryant Jonas Valanciunas

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Betting on NFL Wild Card games involves understanding the unique dynamics of the playoffs, where the stakes are higher and the competition is fierce. These games often feature closely matched teams, making it essential to consider various factors to make informed bets. Here’s a comprehensive guide on how to bet on NFL Wild Card games effectively.

Key Factors to Consider in Wild Card Games

  1. Team Form and Momentum
  2. Injury Reports and Player Availability
  3. Head-to-Head Matchups
  4. Coaching and Playoff Experience
  5. Home Field Advantage
  6. Weather Conditions
  7. Betting Lines and Market Movements
  8. Public Perception and Betting Trends

1. Team Form and Momentum

Importance: Teams entering the playoffs with strong momentum can often carry that success into Wild Card games.

Tips:

  • Recent Performance: Analyze the last few games of the regular season to gauge current form.
  • Streaks: Look for teams on winning or losing streaks.

Example: Betting on a team that has won its last few games convincingly and is showing strong form.

2. Injury Reports and Player Availability

Importance: Player availability and health are crucial in high-stakes games like the Wild Card round.

Tips:

  • Monitor Injury Reports: Check for updates on key players throughout the week.
  • Assess Impact: Consider how the absence or presence of key players might affect the game.

Example: Avoiding a bet on a team missing its starting quarterback or key defensive players due to injury.

3. Head-to-Head Matchups

Importance: Understanding how teams match up against each other can provide valuable insights.

Tips:

  • Past Meetings: Review recent head-to-head matchups to identify trends and performance.
  • Matchup Strengths and Weaknesses: Consider how each team’s strengths align with the opponent’s weaknesses.

Example: Betting on a team that has consistently outperformed its Wild Card opponent in recent matchups.

4. Coaching and Playoff Experience

Importance: Experienced coaching can make a significant difference in playoff games.

Tips:

  • Coaching Records: Evaluate the playoff records of the head coaches.
  • Strategic Adjustments: Consider the ability of coaching staffs to make effective in-game adjustments.

Example: Favoring a team with a head coach who has a strong track record in playoff games.

5. Home Field Advantage

Importance: Playing at home can provide a significant edge, especially in the playoffs.

Tips:

  • Home Performance: Analyze the home team’s performance at home during the regular season.
  • Crowd Impact: Consider the potential impact of a loud and supportive home crowd.

Example: Betting on the home team if they have an outstanding home record and a significant home-field advantage.

6. Weather Conditions

Importance: Weather can play a crucial role in determining the outcome of outdoor games.

Tips:

  • Weather Forecast: Check the weather forecast leading up to the game.
  • Team Adaptability: Assess how well each team can adapt to adverse weather conditions.

Example: Betting the under on total points if heavy snow and wind are expected, which might limit scoring opportunities.

7. Betting Lines and Market Movements

Importance: Betting lines can move significantly based on public perception and betting action.

Tips:

  • Monitor Line Movements: Track how lines change throughout the week.
  • Identify Value Bets: Look for opportunities where the line has moved in a way that creates value.

Example: Betting on an underdog early if you expect the line to move against them due to heavy public betting on the favorite.

Importance: Public sentiment can influence betting lines, creating opportunities for contrarian bets.

Tips:

  • Fade the Public: Consider betting against the public, especially when there is heavy action on one side.
  • Monitor Betting Percentages: Use tools to see where the majority of bets and money are being placed.

Example: Betting on a less popular team if the public heavily favors the opponent, but sharp money supports the underdog.

Practical Steps for Betting on NFL Wild Card Games

  1. Conduct Thorough Research
  2. Analyze Key Matchups
  3. Consider Situational Factors
  4. Monitor Betting Trends
  5. Manage Your Bankroll

1. Conduct Thorough Research

Steps:

  • Gather Data: Collect data on team performance, player statistics, and injury reports.
  • Evaluate Trends: Look for trends in recent games, head-to-head matchups, and overall season performance.

Example: Researching both teams’ recent form and any notable trends in their head-to-head matchups.

2. Analyze Key Matchups

Steps:

  • Break Down Matchups: Analyze how each team’s strengths and weaknesses align with their opponent’s.
  • Key Battles: Identify key battles, such as the offensive line versus the defensive line, and secondary versus receiving corps.

Example: Betting on a team with a strong pass rush if the opposing team’s offensive line has struggled against similar defenses.

3. Consider Situational Factors

Steps:

  • Assess Motivation: Consider the motivation and psychological factors influencing each team.
  • Home/Away Dynamics: Evaluate how each team performs at home versus on the road, especially in high-stakes games.

Example: Betting on a home team that has a strong record in critical games and shows high motivation to advance.

Steps:

  • Track Public Bets: Use betting tools to monitor where the public money is going.
  • Watch for Line Movements: Keep an eye on line movements to identify potential value bets.

Example: Placing a bet if you notice significant line movement in favor of a team despite heavy public betting on the other side.

5. Manage Your Bankroll

Steps:

  • Set a Budget: Determine how much of your bankroll to allocate to Wild Card game bets.
  • Bet Responsibly: Avoid overcommitting to a single game, no matter how confident you are.

Example: Allocating a specific portion of your bankroll to different Wild Card games to diversify risk.

Example of Betting on an NFL Wild Card Game

Scenario: Betting on an NFC Wild Card game between Team A and Team B.

Analysis:

  1. Team Form: Team A is on a strong winning streak, while Team B has struggled in recent games.
  2. Injury Reports: Team B is missing key defensive players, weakening their pass defense.
  3. Head-to-Head Matchups: Team A has consistently performed well against Team B in recent matchups.
  4. Coaching: Team A’s coach has a strong playoff record and is known for effective strategic adjustments.
  5. Home Field Advantage: Team A is playing at home, where they have a strong record.

Betting Strategy:

  • Bet on Team A to Cover the Spread: Given their strong form, favorable head-to-head matchups, and home field advantage.
  • Consider the Over/Under: Analyze the total points line and consider betting the over if both teams have strong offenses and weak defenses.

Conclusion

Betting on NFL Wild Card games requires careful analysis of team form, injury reports, head-to-head matchups, coaching, home field advantage, weather conditions, and public perception. By conducting thorough research, analyzing key matchups, considering situational factors, monitoring betting trends, and managing your bankroll responsibly, you can make more informed and strategic bets. Leveraging these strategies can enhance your overall betting experience and increase your chances of success. Happy betting!

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