DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Before we delve into our Farmers Insurance Open preview, a hearty congratulations to Sepp Straka backers at The American Express. The victory marked his 3rd victory in as many years, a player surely in the frame to again represent Team Europe at Bethpage in the Ryder Cup this year given his immense upside.
WinDaily Sports contributor Sia Nejad was heavily backing Sepp Straka all week. He was duly rewarded with a 66/1 winner as well as a couple of best-round bets at big odds. Well done Sia!
The Farmers Insurance Open also delivered our best win of 2024, as I successfully tipped Matthieu Pavon at MASSIVE odds of 125/1 with 8 places. Looking at our golf course comps below, you’ll understand why we think there is another long shot this year with similar credentials and odds.
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Torrey Pines Golf Course Analysis
A reminder from our Farmers Insurance Open preview that we are firmly placed in course rotation season! This tournament will see the golfers alternate between the North and South courses over the first two days of play. After the cut, the remaining 2 rounds will be played exclusively on the South Course.
Given only one round of the Farmers Insurance Open is played on the North course, I will provide a brief preview only. The North Course is much easier than the South Course. Not to say it is an absolute breeze given the prevalent coastal winds (see what I did there), but it is fundamental to take advantage of the minor relief the North course provides. All of the top 32 on the leaderboard last year shot under par on the North course. The worst score on the North course from the top 12 was a 3-under 69, with most going well under that total.
Part of the reason scoring on the North Course is so key is that the South Course is an absolute brute. To start with, the course is just plain long. Playing at 7,765 yards for a par 72, it is one of the top 5 longest courses on the PGA Tour. But that is just the surface of the issue.
Fairways are narrow, measuring on average just 25 yards across. Miss the fairway, and you’ll be greeted by incredibly penal 4in rough which won’t be cut during the event. Greens are reasonably small at 5,000 sq ft on average. They are firm, fast, and undulating. We also have the first instance of poa annua grass, which can be bumpy and difficult to read. This only gets worse as the day goes on, with greens becoming grainier and picking up marks from previous play.
Why Torrey Pines May Play A Little Differently in 2025
Given the above course analysis for our Farmers Insurance Open preview, there are some key statistics you can hone in on to provide yourself an advantage. Driving distance is a real asset at Torrey Pines. It is not to say you can’t be successful if you are short but accurate off the tee. However, your margin for error is small and the path to victory is narrow. Only one golfer in the last 15 years hit over 80% driving accuracy at this course.
Previously, drivers who are both long and accurate have had a stronger advantage. There was one specific note from the Course Superintendent this week which stood out for me. He stated, “This is the driest winter he has experienced in his nine years with the last significant rain event in early April.” This will only make the test even trickier. Fairways will be near impossible to hold for the entire field, as balls will run through on firm fairways into taht juicy 4in rough.
Essentially, I am less focused on any driving accuracy this week. I envision a case where simply being long is enough. Much like Bryson DeChambeau used this tactic to his advantage in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot.
Along with driving distance, I think the Clubhead Speed is an interesting statistic to consider. The benefit of this is twofold. One, they will be longer drivers of the golf ball. If you are going to miss the fairway anyway, it is better to be closer to the green. This is especially true with greens small and firm. The ability to approach greens with a more lofted club will be an advantage. Secondly, the extra thick rough this week means that a higher clubhead speed will mean a greater chance of advancing the ball.
Torrey Pines Golf Course Comps
Torrey Pines has a quite sticky course history. Winners of the Farmers Insurance Open have usually had a few opportunities to preview the course before finding success.
As a regular US Open venue, and US Open-like conditions this week, you can apply a blank filter on performance at all US Open venues. It was probably a little unsurprising that our 150/1 selection here in 2024 Matthieu Pavon then finished 5th at the US Open later that year.
Quail Hollow, Congaree, and Winged Foot are all akin to the test likely faced by the golfers this week. Part of our success in finding Pavon came from his performance on key long driving courses on the DP World Tour. Emirates Golf Club, Albatross Golf Resort, and Dom Pedro shape as options.
Particularly good guides are found at Jumeirah Golf Estates and Club de Campo Villa de Madrid. Jumeirah Golf Estates is where Pavon finished 5th to pip Rasmus Hojgaard to the post with the final PGA Tour card for finishing top 10 on the Race to Dubai rankings. Pavon had a 2nd and then a win at the Open de Espana, where we also successfully tipped him at 80/1.
Jon Rahm also links those two courses nicely. He is a two-time winner of the Farmers Insurance Open, with a superb record of W-29-5-2-7-W (US Open)-3-7-10. He is a three-time winner at the Jumeirah Golf Estates (with a measly 5th in his other attempt), and has two wins in Madrid with a record of W-17-W-9-2.
Farmers Insurance Open Preview Weather
With two courses in rotation, no tee-time advantage is to be gained in our Farmers Insurance Open preview this week. However, I do think there is an option to find a weather edge of sorts. Of the opening two rounds, Thursday looks by far the most windy. Winds are set to prevail at 10-12mph but gusts are predicted to top 30mph.
Now, you might think the idea would be to avoid the South Course in windy conditions. However, I take the other route. The North Course is fundamentally key to compiling a score at this event. The South Course will play very tough irrespective of what the weather is doing. Therefore, I would much rather my players for the North Course in the calmer winds forecast for Friday. The earlier that players are out the better for both days, but particularly Thursday when the winds will begin to kick in from approximately 11:30am onwards.
Heavy winds are again forecast for Saturday with a chance of rain and thunderstorms, which may linger into Sunday morning.
Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.
Farmers Insurance Open Preview Golf Betting Tips
Thank you for reading my Farmers Insurance Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
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