October 22, 2024

Welcome to the Week 7 Edition of By The Numbers for the 2024 NFL Season.  This is a series that will be data driven and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.  My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player who may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken. 

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig into individual player performances, I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunities more often than not creates production.  The more targets a player gets, the better chance there is that the player will return value. 

In looking at the chart above, we can see that all but 1 of the top receivers in terms of targets outperformed their previous 4 week average.  Cedric Tillman was the leader in targets amongst the Wide Receivers in Week 7.  With Amari Cooper no longer in the mix in Cleveland, there were plenty of targets to be dispersed and Tillman was the biggest beneficiary.  His 12 targets in Week 7 were by far the most he’s had in a game in his young career.  He’ll look to continue in Week 8 against the division rivals in the Ravens. 

Romeo Doubs is slowly becoming one of Jordan Love’s favorite targets.  Coming into this week, Doubs had averaged just north of 4 targets over his previous 3 games.  This week he was all the way up to 10. This marks the third time in his career that he’s been in double-digit targets and the first time since Week 4 of the 2023 season.  Although he led the team in targets, he did not catch one of the 3 touchdowns that Love threw in week 7.  That said, he did nearly hit the 100 yard mark for the first time this season, falling just 6 yards shy.  He’ll look to have another strong showing in Week 8 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Lastly, we have Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets.  Of the top 5 wide receiver target monsters this week, he’s the only one who saw a reduction in targets compared to his previous 4-week average.  This was also the first time since Week 4 that he saw single-digit targets.  This will probably become the normal with Davante Adams now in the mix.  Next up for Wilson and the Jets will be the Patriots in Week 8.    

Running Back Targets

This was not the week to target pass-catching running backs, as no single back had double-digit targets.  Breece Hall led the way with just 9 of them.  The 9 targets for Breece Hall in Week 7 were the most he’s had all season and the most he’s had since Week 17 last season vs. the Browns.  Aaron Rodgers seems intent on throwing, and throwing often as he threw 39 times in Week 7.  Hall ended up cracking the century mark as he finished the week with 103 yards.  He’ll look to have a strong Week 8 vs. the Patriots in what could be considered a neutral matchup. 

Tight End Targets

If you had 4 Tight Ends in the top 5 in Targets in Week 7 on your bingo card, you more than likely took home the bacon.  Both Brock Browers and David Njoku were tied for the league lead in targets this past week with 14.  Bowers now has double-digit targets in 3 consecutive weeks and with Davante Adams no longer in the mix in the LV, he’ll surely continue to add to that streak. 

He also made the most out of his targets as he went on to catch 10 of the 14 for 93 receiving yards.  That was the third time this season he’s reached 90 yards and the first time he’s had double-digit receptions.  The only thing that’s been holding him back is lack of touchdowns as he’s still stuck at just one.  Next up for Bowers and the Raiders will be a matchup with the Chiefs, one of just 2 teams in the league to so far give up over 500 yards receiving to Tight Ends. 

Thanks to 3 DNP this season, David Njoku came into Week 7 with just 15 targets to his name.  He nearly doubled his season total with a 14-target performance vs. the Bengals in Week 7.  He too made the most out of his targets as he caught 10 of them for 76 yards and one of those touchdown things everyone seems to like.  The 14 targets he had were just the third time he’s double-digit targets over the last 2 seasons.  Like Bowers, he gets a strong matchup in Week 8 vs. the Raves, the only other team besides the Chiefs to give up 500 yards receiving to

Target Share (minimum 30 passes)

As we can see from above, no one targeted their Tight Ends more than Gardner Minshew and the Raiders.  We already highlighted above the game that Bowers had and we’ll look to see that trend continue next week vs. the Chiefs as the Chiefs are very susceptible to Tight Ends. 

Another team that really targeted their Tight Ends was the Patriots and Drake Maye.  Of Maye’s 37 pass attempts, 14 went to the combo of Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.  Henry was the biggest beneficiary as he was targeted 9 times and ended up catching 8 of them 92 yards. 

4 teams targeted their running backs at least 24% of the time, with the Jets and the Saints leading the way.  Each of those 2 teams targeted their backs 10 times with Breece Hall and none other than Alvin Kamara leading the way for their respective teams.  Both of those 2 lads are historically the leaders in targets week in and week out and should continue to receive their fare share of targets.

No one targeted their receivers more this week than Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers.  While most flocked to Jayden Reed, it was Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks who led the way in targets.  We already highlighted Doubs, but Wicks also had a strong game with 6 targets and ended up catching 3 of them for 48 yards and a TD. 

Carries

Week 7 of the 2024 season will go down as the week of the Running Back.  This past week saw 8 different running backs cross the century mark in terms of rushing yards.  I’ll be highlighting those that ended up with most carries as like Targets, more carries equals more opportunities.

No one had more carries this week than Tank Bigsby.  Tank’s 26 carries were by the most he’s had this season and for his career.  His previous high mark this season was just 13 so he doubled his season high.  His 118 yards were also the most he’s had his season and the second time this year he’s crossed 100 rushing yards.  He’s now had at least 90 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games.  He also scored 2 TD’s and now has 4 on the year.  As long as Travis Etiene is out with a bum hammy, he’ ll continue to get the lion’s share of carries.  Next up will be a neutral matchup vs. the Packers.

When Joe Mixon is healthy, there are few backs more reliable than him.  In his 4 games this season, he’s rushed for over 100 yards in 3 of them and for the second time this year he had at least 25 carries.  He’s also scored a rushing TD in all but one game this season.  He’ll look to have another strong showing next week vs. a Colts team that has given up the third most yards on the ground this season to running backs.  Sign me up for another strong Mixon game. 

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