October 2, 2024

Hump Day!  Oh, what an exciting first day of the playoffs!  Today we have another 4-game slate of MLB DFS.  With these being 3-game series, this could be the last game of the season for the 4 teams that lost last night.  Unlike yesterday though, we don’t have the ace-level pitchers today.  While we don’t really have the same level, we do have some pretty solid pitching but there should be some nice spots for bats. 

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Sean Manaea ($8.2k on DK) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Sean Manaea will be looking for some retribution today as when he faced the Brewers last week, they were able to get the better of him.  They hammered him for 5 runs in just 3 innings of work.  It was by far his worst outing of the season.  Over the course of 2024, Manaea emerged as the Mets ace.  After switching to more Chris Sale-like mechanics, Manaea was dominant and more likely priced himself out of the Mets next season. 

He finished the season with a career-best 3.47 ERA and had an xERA that was just a bit north of it.  I’m looking for him to wrap up the Wild Card Series for the Mets against a Brewers team that is typically a bit worse vs. lefties.  

Max Fried ($8.7k on DK) vs. San Diego Padres

After stacking the Padres last night, I’m going to reverse course and attack them today with Max Fried.  Fried is as reliable as they come.  More often than not, he goes 6-7 innings while striking about 6-8 hitters a game.  He’ll give up 1-3 runs and then call it a night. 

With the Braves’ backs up against the wall, I’m looking for him to step it up a notch and dominate a Padres lineup that hasn’t been very successful vs. lefties.  Over the last month, the projected lineup has just a .271 wOBA vs. lefties.  If we take out Machado and Tatis from the mix, they have virtually no power against lefties either.  If we get the typical Fried tonight, he should be able to overpower this Padres team and give the Braves at least one more game to play. 

Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Hunter Brown vs. Detroit and Zach Eflin vs. Kansas City.   

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Frankie Montas

I’m going right back to the Mets today.  They put up an 8 spot for us yesterday and I think they have a big game again today.  This team is on a roll and they’ll be facing a pitcher in Montas today who stumbled down the stretch.  Over the last month, Montas pitched an ERA over 5.50 and surrendered 7 homers in his last 24 innings of work.  He was also getting smoked as he allowed 10 barrels over those 24 innings of work.  With it being the playoffs, we won’t have many attackable pitchers but Montas certainly is one. 

Especially when we put him up against his peer group today.  Montas certainly has K upside, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.  Lefties are where we want to prioritize as they have a .333 ISO and a .413 wOBA against him over the last month.  Although the Mets aren’t lefty-heavy, they have 2.5 pieces that will be very much in play.

Core Plays: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Market Vientos, Pete Alonso

Secondary Plays: Jose Iglesias

Value Plays: Jesse Winker (pinch hit risk though), JD Martinez, Francisco Alvarez, Starling Marte

Kansas City Royals vs. Zach Eflin

I really hope my wife isn’t reading this as she’s a die-hard O’s fan.  I think their season comes to an end today.  No team in the Wild Card Series ever has come back after losing game 1.  The team that wins game 1 has gone to win all 8 of these series.  Of the 8 teams pitchers throwing today, no one has had a higher xFIP or SIERA over the last 30 days than Eflin. They’re sitting at 4.12 and 4.55 respectively. 

He too has been susceptible to power as hitters have hit 5 homers against over his last 30 innings and he too has allowed 10 barrels over that stretch.  He’s a low-K pitcher who relies on solid BABIP.  If that doesn’t go his way, he’ll struggle.  With my boy Vinnie back, this lineup is way more powerful than it was without him. 

Core Bats: Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, Sal Perez

Value Bats: Michael Massey, Yuli Gurriel, MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel

Other bats I like tonight will be the Orioles vs. Seth Lugo. 

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