Daily Archives

August 28, 2024

Expert Picks: Tour Championship

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 9 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The Tour Championship, the grand finale of the PGA Tour season, brings together the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings to compete for the coveted FedExCup title. Held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, this event features a unique format where starting strokes are applied based on each player’s position in the standings.

The leader in the FedExCup begins the tournament at 10-under par, followed by the second-place player at 8-under, and so on, down to the players ranked 26th-30th, who start at even par. This staggered start rewards season-long performance while keeping the competition tight.

To add to the pressure, East Lake has undergone a full renovation over the last 12 months with significant changes to the golf course. Players will need to navigate the challenging layout of East Lake while managing the pressure of the starting strokes, making every shot count in their quest for the season-long crown.

Here are Win Daily Sports Experts’ picks for this week’s tourney:

	David Bieleski @DeepDiveGolf	Sia Nejad @SiaNejad	Spencer Aguiar @TeeOffSports	Joel Schreck @DraftMasterFlex	Steven Polardi @spolardi
Outright Winner	All E/W, w/o startking strokes. Check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds Hovland Fleetwood Sungjae Horschel Straka Hoge	Without Starting Strokes Cantlay Fleetwood Horschel	Xander Schauffele	Hideki Matsuyama	Xander Hovland
Top Finishes Markets	All w/o startking strokes, check Golf Bets channel in WinDaily Premium Discord for staking plan and odds Top 10 Horschel Straka Hoge	Top 10 Cantlay Fleetwood Horschel		Top 10 Hovland	Xander Deki Finau
Match-Ups	R1 Match-up Treble Straka over Pavon Im over Theegala Fleetwood over Horschel 1.5u +533 Bet365
First-Round Leader	Scheffler			Hideki Matsuyama	Burns Finau Pendrith
DFS Plays I ❤️	Sungjae Im Horschel Straka		Viktor Hovland Tony Finau	Hideki Matsuyama Adam Scott Wyndham Clark Shane Lowry	Xander Hovland Deki Morikawa
DFS Chalk I'm playing	Scheffler Schauffele Hovland Fleetwood		Xander Schauffele		Scottie Hovland Finau
DFS Chalk I'm fading	McIlroy Thomas Rai		Adam Scott Keegan Bradley		Theegala Scott

9 months ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The FedEx Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 9 months ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome to the last tourney before the fall swing. We are at Eastlake for the FedEx championship. Personally I feel this is a corporate sponsorship ad being passed on to us as an “incredible race to the finish.” Granted, FedEx does some wonderful charity work (St. Jude children’s cancer research) but all year long we hear how the players have only one thing on their minds- to win the FedEx cup. (Cue FedEx commercial) As far as the PGA set up–someone with 450 million might win another 25 million, it seems a little anti climatic. The true value is we can all make money on this tourney. With only 30 golfers you will need the winner, at least 4 of the top 5 to score the heavy cash and all in the top 10 to go for the ultimate lineup. The FedEx Ownership Projections help you reach your goals.

BOOTS ON THE GROUND. This used to be a bombers course. Not anymore. 8 holes have water hazards and 4 new bunkers have been placed in unpleasant areas. The greens look incredibly grainy. The scorching heat will add more speed to the greens where only a lob wedge will hold the greens at present. Remember this-there will be lots of missed putts from 5 feet or less on these surfaces. The players have been shaking their heads about the “grow in” which hasn’t grown in yet. Approach and putting will win this tourney. Since 44-46 % of the approach shots will be from 200 yards or more, it will be interesting to see how this elite group deals with it and also the Bermuda rough. It’s exactly that. Very rough. There is a plus to the fact a par 5 has been added but that’s one hole. With that in mind we feel the following have the best tools to win it all in Bobby Jones backyard. We like Scottie, Xander, Hovland, Fleetwood, IM, Burns Henley, Pendrith, Hoge and Rai—-More will be added/deleted once ownership comes out.

Recent Results

THE Frisky Risky Biscuit! There was no cut last week so no Biscuits. Our Frisky Biscuits record is 37-9 for a 5-6K golfer at 5% or under ownership to make the cut. From January to this week we are hitting 82% of our selections. Our Biscuit picks and others will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord Golf channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is currently slated to be very warm and humid with winds not a factor for Thursday and Friday. Play whoever you like as there is no wave this week. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord this evening for more comprehensive reports from Deep Dive Dave.

Let’s take a look at the FedEx Ownership Projections to create leverage and increase your ROI.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION	OWN %	SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie	43.6	12200
Schauffele, Xander	42.4	11000
Scott,Adam	25.9	7900
Burns, Sam	25.7	8500
McIlroy, Rory	24.8	9600
Hovland, Viktor	24.4	8300
Fleetwood, Tommy	23.5	7600
Bradley, Keegan	23.1	8700
Morikawa, Collin	22.9	9100
Aberg, Ludvig	22.7	9900
Henley, Russell	22.0	7400
Cantlay, Patrick	21.5	9400
Im, Sungjae	21.3	7500
Clark, Wyndham	21.2	8100
Finau, Tony	20.8	7700
Matsuyama, Hideki	20.4	10100
Horschel, Billy	20.3	7100
Thomas, Justin	18.7	6800
Straka, Sepp	17.4	6700
Rai, Aaron	16.9	6400
Pendrith, Taylor	15.5	6500
Hoge, Tom	15.3	6100
Lowry, Shane	14.9	7300
Theegala, Sahith	14.7	7000
Kirk, Chris	13.5	6200
An, Byeong	12.4	7200
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan	12.3	6300
Bhatia, Akshay	11.2	6900
MacIntyre, Robert	10.1	6600
Pavon, Matthieu	8.6	6000

These FedEx Ownership Projections are accurate as of 4:03 EST. Top tier golfers will show a higher % by lock.

Our top pivots for leverage are: Deki, Morikawa, Fleetwood, Henley, Hoge and Rai

My Picks for The FedEx

Top Tier: Scheffler/ Xander

Mid Tier: Hovland

Low Tier: JT

Out in Left Play: Rai

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Burns

FR Leader: Hoge (Contrarian)

What to Watch

You really need to catch the PGA DraftCast, hosted by DraftMasterFlex Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave who drop in to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. Where else can you get three world class golf handicappers and a running text by the experts and audience (you too) that’s hilarious. It’s every Tuesday night at 9:00 EST and is engaging, interactive and funny as hell. Check us out!

***** Parting Shots *****

After this upcoming weekend I’ll be taking my misses to her favorite resort for some R&R. This allows me the” kitchen pass” to stay holed up in my dungeon/ laboratory for the next four months straight for NFL and PGA. I’m then flying out to Palo Alto to see my golf crew, work on some IT and run beta testing for the fall season. I’ll be back with Biscuits in FRL sauce with a nice outright glaze.

A man and his wife decide to spend their 50th anniversary in Russia. They always loved stories about the revolution and the architecture. As they were walking across Red Square (winter was coming) they felt a few drops hit them as they stopped to check on what it was. ‘Ah, snow” said Gladys. “No, it’s rain” said Fred. “Snow!” said Gladys, “it’s just melting when it hits the ground because it isn’t cold enough yet.” “It’s our anniversary dear, we shouldn’t be arguing” Fred replied.” ‘Let’s go ask that local what he thinks.” They walk up to a burly man wearing a large furry hat, and in their best Russian ask, “Excuse us sir, this is our first visit to your wonderful city and we were wondering if this is snow or rain?” The man smiled broadly at them and said, “Good morning- and welcome to Moscow!” (in very thick Russian English) “My name is Rudolph and I am lifelong Muscovite”. “I can tell you for 100 % that it is rain!” They thanked him and continued across the square. Fred turned to Gladys and said, “You will have to concede Gladys,”

“Rudolph the Red knows rain, dear!”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

9 months ago 0 comments

NCAA Football Premium

CFB Thursday Slate Breakdown for Week One

Ivan Herrera 9 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome back to another exciting season of CFB! The first week of the CFB begins with a huge Thursday slate.

The purpose of this article is to break down the CFB main slates both on the DFS and betting sites. The article includes my favorite plays at every position. The players in the “Core” section for each position are the players I want the most exposure too. You can also find my favorite bets under my Drago’s Best Bets section.

QBs

*Core*	*Pivots*	*Value*
KJ Jefferson, UCF	Grayson McCall, NCST	Ethan Vasko, C-C
Jalon Daniels, KU	Cole Gonzales, WCU
Brady Cook, MIZZ	Shedeur Sanders, COL
Max Brosmer, MINN

RBs

*Core*	*Pivots*	*Value*
Devin Neal, KU	RJ Harvey, UCF	Jamar Curtis, LAF
Marcus Carroll, MIZZ	Nate Noel, MIZZ
Omarion Hampton, UNC	Anwar Lewis, JACST

WRs

*Core*	*Pivot*	*Value*
Kevin Concepcion, NCST	Travis Hunter, COL	AJ Colombo, WCU
Lawrence Arnold, KU	Kobe Hudson, UCF	Kyre Duplessis, C-C
Luther Burden III, MIZZ	Dorian Singer, NCST	Jared Casey, KU
Daniel Jackson, MINN	Nate McCollum, UNC
	LaJohntay Wester, COL

Drago’s Best Bets:

Western Carolina +33.5 vs NC State
North Dakota State vs Colorado Over 60.5
Upset Pick of the Day: Lafayette ML vs Buffalo

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/ncaaf/

9 months ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Core and Best Bets for August 28

Jared Levitt 9 months ago

written by Jared Levitt

Hump Day! With it being Wednesday, we’ll have a bit of a small slate. Thanks to the debauchery that happened with the Rangers/White Sox games last night, we’ll be down to just a 7-game slate of MLB DFS on FanDuel and an 8 gamer on DK. At first glance, this is an odd pitching slate. We have a couple of high-priced guys and then a whole lot of nothing. It’s going to be a survival of the fittest type of night on the mound.

Let’s Dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

As will probably be the case going forward, I’m fading the most expensive arm on the slate. Chris Sale is by far the best real life pitcher on this slate. That said, his price is also by far the highest on the slate. Can he post a monster outing here? Sure, he certainly can. I’m not willing to pay $11k for someone just as likely to throw a game hovering around 20 DK as he is 30 DK points. We need 30 DK points out of him for him to reach value and I just don’t see it tonight.

I’m also going to be out on Freddy Peralta. He’s been very “mid” of late and I’m not paying $10k for someone who isn’t striking out people nor going long into games.

Joe Musgrove ($8.8k on DK/$8.1k on FD) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While I normally reserve Joe Musgrove for his games against the Mets, I’m more than likely going to rock him tonight on both sites. Although the Cardinals aren’t the highest strike-out team, I think Musgrove can strike out enough to both not kill us and also take us up in the leaderboards. My biggest concern tonight with Musgrove is his pitch count.

Since returning from the IL, he hasn’t thrown more than 75 pitches in a game. That said, he did put up 9K’s in his last outing with only having to throw 75. That’s also baked into his price as he’s still under $9k. This is nothing more than an average Cardinals lineup that Musgrove gets to face tonight. I like for him at least 20 DK points tonight.

Luis Severino ($7.3k on DK/$8.5k on FD) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I’m way more interested in Luis Severino on DK than I am on FD. His price is very enticing, even with the matchup. The New York Mets are playing for their playoff lives at this point and need all the wins they can get. I’m hopeful that Sevy can throw a third straight strong start. Overall, his first year in New York has been a successful one. After a disastrous 2023 campaign with the cross-town rival New York Yankees, Severino has pitched to a 3.84 ERA with a nearly identical xERA.

While the K’s have been mostly down for him this year over years past, his groundballs have been up. Against lefties over the last month, he has a nearly 54% groundball rate. He should face a lineup tonight that has 7 lefties in it. There’s certainly some power risk here, but with his recent propensity to get the ball on the ground, that should limit the damage. This is far from a safe play, but with pitching the way it is tonight I’m willing to roll the dice on him in this matchup. Especially with the Dbacks missing some of their top bats.

The other pitchers I have an interest in tonight will be Andre Pallante vs. San Diego, David Festa vs. Atlanta, and Jack Leiter vs. Chicago (FD only). I want to point out specifically today, I’m not 100% married to these pitchers. Especially Sevy. Make sure to hop into discord throughout the day to as I’ll be posting my final thoughts on pitching later today. It’s very possible on DK that I end up going Musgrove/Leiter. Leiter struggled in his first cup of coffee this season. Since getting sent back down to the Minors, he’s had increased velocity and command.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Max Meyer

As chalky as they’ll be, I’m going right back to the Rockies tonight. They get a great matchup vs. a struggling Max Meyer. Over the last month, Meyer has been terrible. He’s allowed an ERA over 7 and has also allowed 8 homers and 13 barrels in the 25 innings he’s thrown over the last month. Since being recalled back to the majors in July, he hasn’t had a start allowing less than 3 ER.

In his 46 innings of work this season, he’s already managed to allow 11 homers. He’s someone that we can rely to give up power. With this stack, I’m not going to be overly concerned about splits. Both sides of the plate have an OPS over .860, with lefties having a slight edge at .910.

I’ll start this stack with the guys hitting at the top of the lineup. That will be Charlie Blackmon, Ezequiel Tovar, and Ryan McMahon. I said in yesterday’s article that Blackmon was due to for a big game and he rewarded us with 21 DK points. In this matchup, he has similar upside.

After the 3 guys at the top, I’ll look to guys like Brendan Rodgers, Michael Toglia, and Jeff Cave. Plugging in a guy like Sam Hilliard so you can get a 9-3 or 9-4 stack is also very much in play. This entire lineup should be in play tonight and they should score a whole bunch of runs.

Boston Red Sox vs. Chris Bassitt

This is looking like a worst-case scenario type of matchup for Chris Bassitt tonight. Over the last month, lefties have really battered him. They own a .250 ISO and a .426 wOBA vs. him over the last 30 days and also have a nearly 53% hard-hit rate and 50% flyball rate. 12 of the 16 bombs he’s given up this season have been to lefties.

With Triston Casas back healthy, he should face a Red Sox lineup tonight that has 6 lefties in it. Most of these lefties also own some power so tonight’s game very well could equate to a home run derby.

Core Bats: Jarren Duran, Triston, Wilyer Abreu, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida (I have this listed in my order of preference)

Secondary Bats: Tyler O’Neill, Connor Wong, David Hamilton

Value Bats: Ceddanne Rafaela

Other bats I like tonight will be the Mets vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, Blue Jays lefties vs. Brayan Bello, Rangers vs. Chris Flexen ,and Marlins vs. Kyle Freeland

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for a PREMIUM account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

9 months ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Football

The Importance of Line Shopping in NFL Betting

WIN 9 months ago

written by WIN

The Importance of Line Shopping in NFL Betting

Line shopping is a crucial strategy in NFL betting that involves comparing betting lines across multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds and maximize potential returns. This practice can significantly improve your profitability and reduce the risk associated with betting. Here’s a detailed guide on the importance of line shopping and how to effectively incorporate it into your NFL betting strategy.

Why Line Shopping is Important

Maximizes Value
Reduces Risk
Exploits Market Inefficiencies
Increases Long-Term Profitability
Provides More Betting Options

1. Maximizes Value

Importance: Getting the best possible odds for your bets maximizes the value of your wagers, leading to higher potential returns.

Tips:

Compare Odds: Always check multiple sportsbooks before placing a bet to ensure you are getting the best available odds.
Look for Differences: Even small differences in odds can have a significant impact on your overall profit.

Example: If one sportsbook offers the New England Patriots at -3.5 while another offers them at -3, betting at -3 gives you a better chance of a push rather than a loss if the Patriots win by exactly 3 points.

2. Reduces Risk

Importance: Finding the best lines can help minimize the risk of losing bets by securing more favorable terms.

Tips:

Focus on Key Numbers: In NFL betting, certain point spreads (like 3, 7, and 10) are more common, so getting a half-point difference around these key numbers can be crucial.
Bet Early or Late: Depending on line movement, placing bets early or waiting until closer to game time can provide better lines.

Example: If you bet on a team at +7.5 instead of +7, you reduce the risk of a loss if the game ends with the team losing by exactly 7 points.

3. Exploits Market Inefficiencies

Importance: Different sportsbooks may set different lines based on their own risk management and the action they’ve received, creating opportunities to exploit market inefficiencies.

Tips:

Monitor Line Movements: Track how lines change across various sportsbooks to identify discrepancies and value bets.
Use Betting Tools: Utilize tools and websites that aggregate and compare lines from multiple sportsbooks.

Example: If the public heavily bets on one team at a particular sportsbook, causing the line to shift, another sportsbook might still offer the original, more favorable line for the other team.

4. Increases Long-Term Profitability

Importance: Consistently getting the best lines increases your expected value (EV) over time, leading to greater long-term profitability.

Tips:

Stay Disciplined: Make line shopping a regular part of your betting routine, even if it requires extra effort.
Track Your Bets: Keep records of the lines you bet on and compare them to the closing lines to evaluate your line shopping effectiveness.

Example: Over a season, consistently finding half-point or point differences in your favor can result in several additional wins or pushes, significantly impacting your overall profit.

5. Provides More Betting Options

Importance: Line shopping exposes you to a wider range of betting options and prop bets that may not be available at a single sportsbook.

Tips:

Explore Different Sportsbooks: Sign up for multiple reputable sportsbooks to access a variety of betting options.
Check Alternative Lines: Some sportsbooks offer alternative lines and prop bets that can provide value.

Example: One sportsbook might offer a prop bet on a quarterback’s passing yards that another sportsbook doesn’t, giving you more opportunities to find profitable bets.

Practical Steps for Effective Line Shopping

Open Accounts with Multiple Sportsbooks
Use Line Comparison Tools
Monitor Line Movements
Bet with a Plan
Take Advantage of Promotions and Bonuses

1. Open Accounts with Multiple Sportsbooks

Steps:

Research Sportsbooks: Choose reputable sportsbooks with good customer service, competitive odds, and a variety of betting options.
Sign Up: Create accounts with several sportsbooks to give yourself access to a range of lines.

Example: Popular sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars often have different lines for the same games.

2. Use Line Comparison Tools

Steps:

Utilize Online Tools: Use websites and apps that aggregate odds from multiple sportsbooks for easy comparison.
Check Regularly: Make it a habit to check these tools regularly, especially before placing bets.

Example: Websites like OddsChecker and Sportsbook Review (SBR) offer line comparison tools that can save you time and help you find the best odds.

3. Monitor Line Movements

Steps:

Track Changes: Keep an eye on how lines move from when they open to just before game time.
React to Movements: Use your knowledge of line movements to decide when to place your bets for the best value.

Example: If a line moves significantly due to public betting, it might create value on the other side.

4. Bet with a Plan

Steps:

Set Goals: Determine what you want to achieve with your bets and how line shopping fits into your strategy.
Stay Consistent: Make line shopping a consistent part of your betting process, not an afterthought.

Example: Plan to spend a certain amount of time each week comparing lines and identifying the best opportunities.

5. Take Advantage of Promotions and Bonuses

Steps:

Look for Offers: Take advantage of sign-up bonuses, free bets, and other promotions offered by sportsbooks.
Read Terms and Conditions: Ensure you understand the requirements and conditions attached to these promotions.

Example: A sportsbook might offer a deposit match bonus, giving you extra funds to use for line shopping and betting.

Conclusion

Line shopping is an essential strategy in NFL betting that can maximize your value, reduce risk, exploit market inefficiencies, increase long-term profitability, and provide more betting options. By opening accounts with multiple sportsbooks, using line comparison tools, monitoring line movements, betting with a plan, and taking advantage of promotions, you can effectively incorporate line shopping into your betting strategy. This practice requires discipline and effort but can significantly enhance your betting success and profitability. Happy betting!

9 months ago 0 comments

August 28, 2024

Expert Picks: Tour Championship

The FedEx Ownership Projections

CFB Thursday Slate Breakdown for Week One

QBs

RBs

WRs

Drago’s Best Bets:

MLB DFS Core and Best Bets for August 28

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Joe Musgrove ($8.8k on DK/$8.1k on FD) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Luis Severino ($7.3k on DK/$8.5k on FD) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Max Meyer

Boston Red Sox vs. Chris Bassitt

The Importance of Line Shopping in NFL Betting

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Queue

August 28, 2024

QBs

RBs

WRs

Drago’s Best Bets:

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Joe Musgrove ($8.8k on DK/$8.1k on FD) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Luis Severino ($7.3k on DK/$8.5k on FD) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Colorado Rockies vs. Max Meyer

Boston Red Sox vs. Chris Bassitt

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.